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When is structural battery pack & 4680 cells coming & Why are you not waiting until then?

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I agree with this in part.

The structural pack with 4680 cells will have reduced internal resistance. I expect faster charging.
Second, the structural pack has room for more capacity. I don't expect Tesla to give that out for free, but it very well may give us interesting consumer choices to ponder.

I wonder how Tesla will keep the balance and feel to be consistent when they are laying out the cylinders for different capacity models.

My bet is they will fill the entire structure as designed to keep rigidity and weight consistent but software limit the capacity to be exactly as current model Y spec. Upcharge software unlock later for the remaining capacity.
 
I wonder how Tesla will keep the balance and feel to be consistent when they are laying out the cylinders for different capacity models.

My bet is they will fill the entire structure as designed to keep rigidity and weight consistent but software limit the capacity to be exactly as current model Y spec. Upcharge software unlock later for the remaining capacity.
Unlikely. Cost penalty to do it, 4680 batteries don't grow on trees.
They're only gonna make one battery pack configuration for the near term, put in all chassis. Probably some cylinders will be inert so the whole pack is still structural.
That config will deliver very similar range to the current offerings.

When competition finally arrives, they'll make a new configuration with more capacity, ie live batteries, fewer inert cylinders.
That's probably not for another 18 months.
 
This sounds reasonable.
Also possible that the pattern they are placed in could lead to negligible loss of stiffness. Think in terms of the Nome or alloy honeycomb in some sandwich composite panels or boat hulls/decks. Lighter and potentially just as stuff without dummies. Unused batteries just huge waste of money while adding weight. Not the kind of elegant solution Tesla engineers are known for.
 
My bet is they will fill the entire structure as designed to keep rigidity and weight consistent but software limit the capacity to be exactly as current model Y spec. Upcharge software unlock later for the remaining capacity.

Sincerely doubt it as not only do they not grow on trees, it'd only be a question of time before someone figured out a hack to be able to use the extras. At that point they will have sold a vehicle for much less money than they would otherwise have done
 
Also possible that the pattern they are placed in could lead to negligible loss of stiffness. Think in terms of the Nome or alloy honeycomb in some sandwich composite panels or boat hulls/decks. Lighter and potentially just as stuff without dummies. Unused batteries just huge waste of money while adding weight. Not the kind of elegant solution Tesla engineers are known for.
Nomex I mean.
 
I was watching the Tesla Daily YouTuber and the 4680 battery ramp up might be slower than we all thought. They have a million batteries stored and that is only enough for 1000 cars. And the current production rate is only enough for 5-6 cars per day. So everything depends on how fast they ramp up battery production.
 
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I was watching the Tesla Daily YouTuber and the 4680 battery ramp up might be slower than we all thought. They have a million batteries stored and that is only enough for 1000 cars. And the current production rate is only enough for 5-6 cars per day. So everything depends on how fast they ramp up battery production.
it was always the case that battery production was the limiting factor.
Whether "Tesla Daily" has accurate information is a whole 'nother point. unlikely.

Tesla is The Master at leaking or allowing out ONLY what they want out. When they want, how they want, to whom they want.
The blogs are almost entirely speculation run rampant.

Tesla stated publicly at the Q4 Earnings Call that they have sufficient batteries to meet their 'production plans'.
They are also counting on 3rd parties to provide batteries as well; Panasonic among others has been mentioned.
Specifics of production plans have not been made public. Everything is hype at this time.
 
I was watching the Tesla Daily YouTuber and the 4680 battery ramp up might be slower than we all thought. They have a million batteries stored and that is only enough for 1000 cars. And the current production rate is only enough for 5-6 cars per day. So everything depends on how fast they ramp up battery production.

I don't think there is any decent way to parse that information reliably, but we can say that 1000 car's worth of cells (let's call it 100,000 kWh = 1E8 Wh) all came from the li'l bldg in Fremont that when running fully is supposed to be a 10 GWh per year (1E10 Wh) plant.

So now we can make a table:

% of Max ... Daily Production....... Days worth so far
5% ............ 2.74E7 ..................... 4
10% .......... 5.48E7 ..................... 2
20% ......... 1.1E8 .....................
30% ......... 1.65E8 .....................
40% ......... 2.2E8 .....................
50% ......... 2.7E8 .....................

Conclusion: if that is all they have, the trail ahead is long.
 
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I don't think there is any decent way to parse that information reliably, but we can say that 1000 car's worth of cells (let's call it 100,000 kWh = 1E8 Wh) all came from the li'l bldg in Fremont that when running fully is supposed to be a 10 GWh per year (1E10 Wh) plant.

So now we can make a table:

% of Max ... Daily Production....... Days worth so far
5% ............ 2.74E7 ..................... 4
10% .......... 5.48E7 ..................... 2
20% ......... 1.1E8 .....................
30% ......... 1.65E8 .....................
40% ......... 2.2E8 .....................
50% ......... 2.7E8 .....................

Conclusion: if that is all they have, the trail ahead is long.
Don't go so deep on the BS clickbait of a blog.

As you say, there's no decent way to parse that YT blog poseur, and no point trying.
The only winner is the BS clickbait fishmonger.
 
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It's a fair ask but there's no info.
No one is aware of new molds being needed at Fremont... they've made 200,000+ rear castings (all used in current MY's) as well as several thousands of front castings.
And of course China has been cranking out MY's as well, some 300K last year.

Automotive tooling is usually serviced annually, which typically means inspecting for cracks and polishing. That schedule is driven by production line shutdowns, not a specific service interval. Erosion can be fixed with welding, spray welding and selective plating. If that needs to be done frequently, the part will probably be redesigned with new tooling.
 
I'm less interested in 500 mile range, since I don't expect that before real market competition arrives. It's a couple years off before any volume from competitors comes.
I'm more interested in WEIGHT REDUCTION, which is what MEGACASTS deliver to the MY. Lots of steel replaced with aluminum.
Even with 2170 battery packs, 200lbs weight savings is estimated. With 4680 batteries, Elon claims 10%, or 440lb weight reduction.
Weight buys range, weight buys performance, weight buys handling characteristics.
I think Tesla will solve the 4680 manufacturing issues by Q1 22.
No one really knows when, but there's a TON of pressure to get it done. CT, Semi, and who knows what other products depend on it, and MY cost+mfr process savings depends on it.
Tesla is finishing building not one, but TWO GigaFactories with processes and equipment that depends on it.
Yeah, there's some pressure in the system at Tesla.
Finally I find someone who appreciate the same thinking process as me. If someone is ordering the model 3 or Y in a Performance version, and they do it for the right reason’s they would definitely appreciate the change to castings front and rear and the lower weight battery. And even if someone thinks that 2-300 lbs is not that much for a car this size and weight, then they do not understand the most important thing, that this weight is removed from the far front, far rear and out to the sides.
By doing this the point of inertia is improved greatly and that means even more to the cars handling characteristics than just the weight itself.
This thing around a track will outperform the same model without structural battery and mega castings with a wide margin.
 
Finally I find someone who appreciate the same thinking process as me. If someone is ordering the model 3 or Y in a Performance version, and they do it for the right reason’s they would definitely appreciate the change to castings front and rear and the lower weight battery. And even if someone thinks that 2-300 lbs is not that much for a car this size and weight, then they do not understand the most important thing, that this weight is removed from the far front, far rear and out to the sides.
By doing this the point of inertia is improved greatly and that means even more to the cars handling characteristics than just the weight itself.
This thing around a track will outperform the same model without structural battery and mega castings with a wide margin.

Keep in mind that the rear megacast is already in use. Remaining weight savings from front megacast and structural pack is unknown, but certainly less than the 440 pounds Elon was discussing in the pre-any-mega-cast era

Also, due to regenerative braking, efficiency gains are not as huge for reduced mass as one might think. It's there, but in my opinion lower mass is more of a ride and handling advantage than a huge range gain opportunity.
 
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I’ll be very interested in the whole cooling efficiency of the 4680 battery. They are much bigger. Wouldn’t that mean less coils running in between to cool the batteries and being thicker, it would retain heat more?

Each individual battery is bigger, for sure, but that also means fewer of them to make a pack, which leads to possibility that they can be spaced apart further away from each other, -> larger diameter coils and/or more coils. It's all in how the entire system is designed.
 
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