I'm pretty confused by the general state of the 4680 cells and whether they are actually remotely ready for prime-time and integration into existing product lines at Tesla. The battery-day presentation was nice and all, but as someone who has been involved in R&D a lot, it definitely didn't sound like it was ready for mass production with all problems sorted out. The way I see it, there are 2 major risks as a consumer waiting for 4680 cells:
1. It might still take a few years for Tesla to sort through manufacturing and get them integrated into the Model Y and other product lines
2. Even if they get it integrated into existing product lines, there is most likely going to be some early adopter pain points because I just don't see this very new (and challenging) approach to work flawlessly when they move to mass production.
What is confusing is that by all accounts, all the "press" from Elon essentially claims that the Austin and Berlin GFs are going to be tooled assuming 4680 cells. I'd imagine that it would be expensive and challenging to have fallback options of building cars with the existing battery cells in those plants. If this is indeed true, then perhaps Tesla is very confident that they can mass produce 4680 cells that are ready for prime-time by the end of this year. I'm personally very skeptical on this, but I'd be happy to be proven wrong.
I currently have an open order for a model Y. My plan is to go ahead with it if Federal tax credits happen this year. If not, I'll probably wait to at least see what's happening with the Austin and Berlin factories before pulling the trigger. If nothing else, it should increase supply and hopefully reduce prices a bit, especially as there is more competition from other manufacturers.
Edit - I will note that I don't envision Tesla bumping up the Model Y range by much if they do successfully integrate the 4680 cells. They still have top of the line range numbers compared to the competition. I suspect they will use the new battery architecture to reduce their battery size (and vehicle weight), increase margins on their vehicles, while also providing some smaller meaningful gain in range via their increased efficiency (lighter car). People who are waiting for 400+ range numbers for a Model Y are likely going to be sorely disappointed. I don't see that happening for base models unless the competition forces Tesla's hand on that front and that isn't looking likely any time soon. I do however see them dropping prices to sweeten the deal in comparison to the competition.
![angus[Y]oung](/tmc/data/avatars/l/141/141264.jpg?1620160343){kind=avatar}
