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When is structural battery pack & 4680 cells coming & Why are you not waiting until then?

EVer Hopeful

Member
Jul 7, 2021
338
251
Texas
When do you think the structural battery pack and 4680 cells are coming to the Model Y?

Why are folks not waiting until the 4680 cells to order their Model Y?

You asked "When?" and "Why?" but maybe a more important question is "How?"

as in once 4680s become available, How will they be integrated into the vehicle? You're assuming the range will increase, but maybe it'll stay the same because they'll put fewer in there to save money

How much will a 4680 vehicle cost? You said it was a "Huge upgrade" so maybe there'll be a commensurate price increase

Also if the current order book is running with over three moths lead time, How long will you have to wait until you get you 4680 vehicle?


I was waiting for the 4680s too, then I saw a video that (correctly IMO) suggested that when they finally became available, there'd be something else to wait for. I'm now $1500 better off because I placed my order on June 22nd, which is like getting a free tow hitch, or free red paint, or free 20" wheels, or a free white interior ... and soon there'll be another price increase

Maybe more importantly still (and please don't take this as a personal insult because it's not meant that way) How does it feel driving around in an old used S when you could be driving a new Y
 

EVer Hopeful

Member
Jul 7, 2021
338
251
Texas
This was a big reason for me holding off on a Model Y reservation (along with road noise compared to a Model S.) Because these battery packs seem at least a year away, I am filling that time with a Ioniq 5 because the V2L system seems like a great feature for camping.
I had a regular Ioniq from Carvana for a week, with maybe 300 miles on the clock and I almost took that route. It was an excellent vehicle. I gave it back though because it was a 2019 and they increased the range dramatically for the 2020, plus with the (still available) tax credit, a new 2020 would have been about the same price - and with double the warranty

Oh and I almost forgot ... you can't buy them in Texas <bang head>
 

DanDi58

Active Member
Jun 22, 2020
1,162
850
Dayton NJ
Based on Tesla delaying Semi production again due to a lack of batteries (4680's), I'd be concerned about them being available for the MY any time soon - they have customers actively awaiting the Semi so I don't think they would delay those sales any longer than they had to and already selling every MY they can make with the current technology.
 
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teslaspotter

Member
Sep 14, 2009
27
2
East Bay
Well, I didn't wait. two lead -acid and one FLAWED, used, LiFePhos packs later I would LOVE 220 - 4680s to get my second iteration[or maybe 3rd]. The 4680s would allow me to reconfigure the traction pack design. The T-bone design got me on the road 2003-2014, but the gap was too big; all packs failed in the same place. Switching out the junkyard wiring for new stuff might help too. O yeah , I should buy a ready made, but MY car fits my driveway and my beekeeping gear fits the car.. I was ready to buy the hatch back "Y" but it is too "Y"ed.
www.evalbum.com/1745
choose love!
 

tangible1

Member
Jul 8, 2021
168
101
SoCAL
he just doesn't say WHEN the 4680-based packs will be available.
Elon ALSO says there's a 'backup plan' for Tesla to use 2170 cells until 4680 is ready. And that is what will come out of Texas first.
But the real issue is the use of BOTH F+R MAGACASTS.
Their use in constructing the chassis will save WEIGHT, up to 10% (440lbs) according to statements Elon has made (200lbs when paired with 2170 cells).
Weight buys range, performance, and handling.
4680 batteries aren't worth the wait. But a F+R megacasts-based chassis IS worth the wait.
 

ScoobyDoo82

Member
Mar 22, 2021
296
243
Los Angeles (818)
he just doesn't say WHEN the 4680-based packs will be available.
Elon ALSO says there's a 'backup plan' for Tesla to use 2170 cells until 4680 is ready. And that is what will come out of Texas first.
But the real issue is the use of BOTH F+R MAGACASTS.
Their use in constructing the chassis will save WEIGHT, up to 10% (440lbs) according to statements Elon has made (200lbs when paired with 2170 cells).
Weight buys range, performance, and handling.
4680 batteries aren't worth the wait. But a F+R megacasts-based chassis IS worth the wait.
Although the Meagacasts is fantastic, waiting for the front casting without the structural 4680 pack is silly. Might as well wait until it’s all three. Getting a MY with front and rear megacasts but having the “old” 2170 non-structural battery pack sandwiched between them isn’t worth any wait. Just wait for the 4680!
 

tangible1

Member
Jul 8, 2021
168
101
SoCAL
Along with the 4680 pack, did they not also want to change to a 48 Volt electrical system? I would think that they want this to run concurrently. This changes all the wiring and accessories!!
Elon has stated in interviews (specifically with Sandy Munro) that a 48V system was considered but the infrastructure to support it (ie electric parts) don't exist.
So it wasn't worth implementing. Tesla would have had to re-invent THAT whole wheel along with all the other pain points.
 

Hurricane4911

IT Guy From 1980-2013, Retired
Jul 29, 2021
85
58
Tampa
When do you think the structural battery pack and 4680 cells are coming to the Model Y?
When Austin is up and running? When will Austin be doing volume production of the Y? Is Tesla going to begin production in Austin with 4680 packs or 2170 packs trucked over from Nevada?

Why are folks not waiting until the 4680 cells to order their Model Y?
Won't these 4680 cells provide greater range and charging speed benefits? But, perhaps, most significantly, longevity of the pack?

The Velocity of Change.
I did not wait and ordered my MYLR this summer and waiting for delivery. With Austin full focus on Model Y till 2022 and 4680 cells a good 6 months away, I do not see any 4680s entering into the Models 3 or Y anytime soon. Those batteries are headed to Model S, X, Cybertruck, and Semi.

Also, the 2170s appear to be software capped at 76kwh. I've seen reports of the real number being 82kwh. The 3 and Y are the freshest products. You might even consider the current MY as version 1.5 given all the upgrades in the current config. There is a lot of backlog, and I see no need to upgrade the battery...now.

The velocity of change is enormous. We all know that 1 year from now, we will be having the same "wait or jump" conversation.
That's the fun part.
😎
 
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tangible1

Member
Jul 8, 2021
168
101
SoCAL
Although the Meagacasts is fantastic, waiting for the front casting without the structural 4680 pack is silly. Might as well wait until it’s all three. Getting a MY with front and rear megacasts but having the “old” 2170 non-structural battery pack sandwiched between them isn’t worth any wait. Just wait for the 4680!
MY OPINION - YMMV
Weight matters more than battery type. Only people on an extended road trip will experience any difference in charging times, and there will be NO RANGE IMPROVEMENT.
Tesla won't put in more batteries to extend range any time soon. No competitive need, and fewer batteries means cheaper to manufacture (which is also the benefit of castings).
While there's been no discussion from Tesla (that I've seen) regarding HOW the 2170 'backup plan' is to be implemented, it would have to make use of a structural battery pack.
The front megacast doesn't appear capable of being used with the current, standard skateboard battery pack if you look at it's layout in the 'Battery Day' diagrams.
 
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