When is structural battery pack & 4680 cells coming & Why are you not waiting until then?

[Guvnah]

When do you think the structural battery pack and 4680 cells are coming to the Model Y?
When Austin is up and running? When will Austin be doing volume production of the Y? Is Tesla going to begin production in Austin with 4680 packs or 2170 packs trucked over from Nevada?

Why are folks not waiting until the 4680 cells to order their Model Y?
Won't these 4680 cells provide greater range and charging speed benefits? But, perhaps, most significantly, longevity of the pack?

 

[origingalatic]

Why buy an iPhone when you know a better one is just 12 months away.

do a little search on “should you wait...” thread and read up. Most of the answers you are looking for is there

 

[Guvnah]

I am subscribed to that thread but I don't recall any recent discussion on the 4680 cells...

The focus there is on center console, HEPA, and wood trim on the doors.
IMHO, the 4680 battery pack that could allow the car to last as long as you ever wanted is a HUUUUGer "upgrade" than a matte black finish on a center console and some more wood trim.

 

[iustin]

When do you think the structural battery pack and 4680 cells are coming to the Model Y?

Why are folks not waiting until the 4680 cells to order their Model Y?
Won't these 4680 cells provide greater range and charging speed benefits? But, perhaps, most significantly, longevity of the pack?

Oh, I'm definitely waiting. Because in EU they don't sell the Y yet But only because of that.

 

[Guvnah]

Oh, I'm definitely waiting. Because in EU they don't sell the Y yet But only because of that.

Oh, right, Europe is waiting on Berlin!

I wonder what the range will be like when the Model Ys are rolling out near Berlin with the 4680 packs?

 

[DanDi58]

When do you think the structural battery pack and 4680 cells are coming to the Model Y?
When Austin is up and running? When will Austin be doing volume production of the Y? Is Tesla going to begin production in Austin with 4680 packs or 2170 packs trucked over from Nevada?

Why are folks not waiting until the 4680 cells to order their Model Y?
Won't these 4680 cells provide greater range and charging speed benefits? But, perhaps, most significantly, longevity of the pack?

I'm not waiting because NO ONE KNOWS when they will become available. Logically, why would they put new battery packs in the 3/Y - when they are selling all they can make currently - when they will be starting volume production of the Semi and Cybertruck late this year/early 2020.... I know media reports have said that the structural battery pack (with 4680 batteries) is supposed to be used in the MY built in Berlin but I have my doubts, when they don't have enough for the Semi - which Elon has said they need to start producing.

I have a Y on order and plan to enjoy it for years.

 

[iustin]

Oh, right, Europe is waiting on Berlin!

I wonder what the range will be like when the Model Ys are rolling out near Berlin with the 4680 packs?

We will see. So far the only recent update to the configurator was to change production start date from beginning 2021 to mid-2021, but nothing else. I think until Berlin is finished building, I'll just refresh weekly the page in vain

 

[Guvnah]

We will see. So far the only recent update to the configurator was to change production start date from beginning 2021 to mid-2021, but nothing else. I think until Berlin is finished building, I'll just refresh weekly the page in vain

Hey! mid-2021 is only 4-ish months away! Keep your head up!

 

[tstolze]

If you continue to wait for the next latest and greatest, you will never make your purchase.

 

[Guvnah]

I'm not waiting because NO ONE KNOWS when they will become available. Logically, why would they put new battery packs in the 3/Y - when they are selling all they can make currently - when they will be starting volume production of the Semi and Cybertruck late this year/early 2020.... I know media reports have said that the structural battery pack (with 4680 batteries) is supposed to be used in the MY built in Berlin but I have my doubts, when they don't have enough for the Semi - which Elon has said they need to start producing.

I have a Y on order and plan to enjoy it for years.

Oh I do think you will enjoy your Y! It's a great car! I don't think anyone should have any regrets.

-I wonder if they'll continue with the 2170 packs for Ys coming out of Fremont?

-Berlin will be producing Ys and they are going to be doing battery production at the factory as well, right? I would think only 4680 cells will be produced in Berlin. I'm not sure about any Panasonic lines in Berlin?

- We'll know sooner about the Model Ys from Berlin than Austin. But I thought I remember seeing somewhere the plan is to do Model Ys first out of Austin before Semis and CTs?

 

[Guvnah]

If you continue to wait for the next latest and greatest, you will never make your purchase.

I agree! I decided to go for a used Model S years ago instead of waiting in the queue for the initial Model 3 launch.

I do wonder how long off we are from the "next latest and greatest" battery pack from Tesla. If we see something coming out of Berlin mid-2021 (as iustin 's configurator references) ...that's only a few months away...

 

[jcanoe]

In 18 to 24 months I'll buy another Model Y. As soon as I take delivery Tesla will switch to the 4680 cells in the Model Y. That's how it works.

 

[mark95476]

I'll get the 4680s + structural batteries and a lot of other things with my CyberTruck.

 

[origingalatic]

I am subscribed to that thread but I don't recall any recent discussion on the 4680 cells...

The focus there is on center console, HEPA, and wood trim on the doors.
IMHO, the 4680 battery pack that could allow the car to last as long as you ever wanted is a HUUUUGer "upgrade" than a matte black finish on a center console and some more wood trim.

the sentiment is the same. I advocated to wait at least a quarter in 2021 for the new updates, not only are the new updates coming in early, we also might get a tax incentive too.

The answer to the question is really subjective. How long are you will or can you wait? If the answer is 12-18 months out? Sure. Or do you believe it will be out in the US for model Y in 2021??

 

[house9]

When do you think the structural battery pack and 4680 cells are coming to the Model Y?

Model Y out of Berlin is my guess.

Later this year Plaid+ S out of Fremont will be the first with 4680, after that I imagine Cyber Truck out of GigaTexas; but it would not surprise me if all USA model Y stays with current tech for the next few years and continues sourcing the current batteries out of Nevada.

Why are folks not waiting until the 4680 cells to order their Model Y?

They have places to drive?

Won't these 4680 cells provide greater range and charging speed benefits? But, perhaps, most significantly, longevity of the pack?

I believe most of the benefits of 4680 will be on the manufacturing side, you should be more excited about this technology as a Telsa investor rather than a Tesla consumer.

Tesla currently has the best battery tech for EV. Will that improve with 4680, it appears so but you can’t really go wrong with the current offering.

 

[DonaldBecker]

When do you think the structural battery pack and 4680 cells are coming to the Model Y?
When Austin is up and running? When will Austin be doing volume production of the Y? Is Tesla going to begin production in Austin with 4680 packs or 2170 packs trucked over from Nevada?

Why are folks not waiting until the 4680 cells to order their Model Y?
Won't these 4680 cells provide greater range and charging speed benefits? But, perhaps, most significantly, longevity of the pack?

The new just-started-production Model S and Model X were redesigned using the original size 18650 cells, and are getting amazing performance, range and longevity using that size.

The primary advantage of using a larger cell is that fewer of them need to be made and handled during assembly. There is only a trivial density advantage using a larger cells, and a significant increase in the thermal and electrical path unless the design is changed to mitigate those problems.

If your battery factories are already at their production limit, it's really appealing to build larger cells. They take only slightly more time and space to manufacture, and handling fewer cells per vehicle simplifies every subsequent manufacturing step.

But as an end-user, there is minimal advantage to the larger form factor. Using the same build techniques and chemistry with the existing 2170 size would result in a superior battery.

Finally, you might have the wrong idea about longevity. If you want known long life, you want the current pack design. Experience has shown the current batteries are going to last the expected life of the vehicle with only a modest drop in performance. You should stay away from structural packs until there is enough real-world data to show that flexing the cell casing doesn't cause physical wear or capacity loss.

 

[Guvnah]

Later this year Plaid+ S out of Fremont will be the first with 4680, after that I imagine Cyber Truck out of GigaTexas; but it would not surprise me if all USA model Y stays with current tech for the next few years and continues sourcing the current batteries out of Nevada.

I swear I saw somewhere Tesla changed to prioritizing production of Model Y first for GigaTexas. Anyone else see that?

 

[Guvnah]

The primary advantage of using a larger cell is that fewer of them need to be made and handled during assembly. There is only a trivial density advantage using a larger cells, and a significant increase in the thermal and electrical path unless the design is changed to mitigate those problems.

If your battery factories are already at their production limit, it's really appealing to build larger cells. They take only slightly more time and space to manufacture, and handling fewer cells per vehicle simplifies every subsequent manufacturing step.

But as an end-user, there is minimal advantage to the larger form factor. Using the same build techniques and chemistry with the existing 2170 size would result in a superior battery.

Finally, you might have the wrong idea about longevity. If you want known long life, you want the current pack design. Experience has shown the current batteries are going to last the expected life of the vehicle with only a modest drop in performance. You should stay away from structural packs until there is enough real-world data to show that flexing the cell casing doesn't cause physical wear or capacity loss.

Thank you for your post! You have informative insights into the engineering!

I do not know much beyond what I read around the web...I am just going off what I see, read, and watch. I am hesitant to believe the current 2170 packs are going to have great performance for the life of the vehicle. I have a 2013 Model S and my charging curve is greatly diminished after only 70K miles. Tesla Bjorn's 2170 pack in the Model 3 had degradation and reduced supercharging speeds detailed on YouTube. I wonder if Tesla has made revisions on the Model 3 & Y pack recently? I wonder if the newly resdesigned packs in the the new Model S&X and then the 4680 packs will have better thermal design...?

 

[frankvb]

There is one battery redesign that does make a difference for the consumer (not sure if it's in the new 4680 cells). The internal shape of the cathode/anode are modified so the internal heat generation is way lower. That has many advantages, both during supercharging and driving, and it almost certainly will decrease the rate of battery degradation.

 

[iustin]

There is one battery redesign that does make a difference for the consumer (not sure if it's in the new 4680 cells). The internal shape of the cathode/anode are modified so the internal heat generation is way lower. That has many advantages, both during supercharging and driving, and it almost certainly will decrease the rate of battery degradation.

Just wondering - doesn't that mean that they'll need to actively warm (using resitors) the battery in cold climate, if during normal driving heat generation will be much lower?