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When is structural battery pack & 4680 cells coming & Why are you not waiting until then?
- Thread starter Guvnah
- Start date
4680. Is this a trick question?Which will be in production first — 4680 or “true” FSD?
boulder.dude
Member
Um, given FSD was promised for 2018 and thousands of people have already paid for it?
our grandchildren won't even see fsdWhich will be in production first — 4680 or “true” FSD?
howardnj
Member
I originally placed my order with FSD and then decided to cancel it to reduce my purchase price by $10k
Kind of reminds me of ICE dealers pushing undercoating and glass etching
FSD is a noble goal but the goalposts remain in the distance. I'd like to see it happen for my future old age needs, and believe it can.Which will be in production first — 4680 or “true” FSD?
But it's an all-or-nothing proposition. It either works everywhere or it's not good enough.
Anything else is just cruise control with an attitude.
Tesla has drawn criticism for abandoning LIDAR for a camera-only approach.
Others in govt regulatory bodies think w/o LIDAR that it's impossible, and Sandy Munro posits FLIR-type sensors are required.
While camera-only can work with inferencing distances, computers require lots of real-time processing to accomplish it, while humans do it easily.
And the AI hype is just a masquerade of algorithms and parallel processing.
Just as 'Battery Day' was a recruiting exposition, so too was 'AI Day', and Tesla actually admitted it.
ZenRockGarden
Active Member
Assuming FSD "success" is roughly-equal-to-a-human-in-same-conditions, then vision-only clearly has to be possible since humans can do it with a single pair of "cameras". That's not saying it'll converge any time soon, but it clearly can be done since we do it every day.
More sensors probably help on certain corner cases. However some of those sensors have limitations in weather etc. So you end up having to solve the vision-only problem anyway.
The open question is if lidar/radar/whatever sensors will get to L4 faster than the vision-only approach. It feels like they might, and yeah Tesla has certainly over-promised on when they could deliver their solution to the point where it's unfair to early customers.
This is exactly how I feel about it too. For it to have value, it needs to be actual for real self driving. Like, it needs to handle it ALL of the time, so I can lean my seat back and sleep to my destination. That's the only way it's worth something to me. As it is, that's not worth $1K to me, much less $10K!
And I think it's self-evident that camera only systems can do this...eventually. Humans do it with cameras only: Q.E.D. And the cars have more "eyes" than humans do, looking in more directions that humans do, and all the time. So this can happen, but it's a matter of how challenging the processing and programming is, which could be really difficult and take quite a while to get right.
Tesla is testing higher processing power hardware and better resolution cameras. Not sure the current set will be good enough, but yeah, someone will get there eventually and Tesla is a reasonable bet.
sleepydoc
Well-Known Member
Back to the original topic… I just saw this post in another thread:
teslanorth.com
One of the First Texas-Made Tesla Model Y with 4680 Batteries Delivers to Employee - TeslaNorth.com
While Tesla delivered its first Texas-made Model Y vehicles at its Cyber Rodeo event, the company was mum on details about who took the first deliveries. According to information received by Tesla North, one of the first Austin-made Model Y vehicles with the newest 4680 structural battery packs...
teslanorth.com
Its kind of insane that its been 6 weeks since 4680 were sold to people and yet no blog or paper has a picture of so much as the charging curve to see if it charges at twice the speed as expected.
But yes, I am considering waiting on 4680 even if its lower power.
Sandy Munro stated that the 4680 will last a gazillion years, and he would know.
Plus, in the video showing off the 4680, tesla played a lyric in the background “i will go a million miles” Seems pretty reasonable to assume that 4680 batteries will last many many decades and for a million miles due to improved heat discharge and the far shorter travel distance for electrons due to the tabless design.
Can anyone tell me a reason why I am wrong to think this?
But yes, I am considering waiting on 4680 even if its lower power.
Sandy Munro stated that the 4680 will last a gazillion years, and he would know.
Plus, in the video showing off the 4680, tesla played a lyric in the background “i will go a million miles” Seems pretty reasonable to assume that 4680 batteries will last many many decades and for a million miles due to improved heat discharge and the far shorter travel distance for electrons due to the tabless design.
Can anyone tell me a reason why I am wrong to think this?
Who will take advantage of “a million miles”? Most people get new cars after 5-6 years anyway, and at the speed battery and EV technology in general, is improving at this time, most people won’t see the difference between 4680 and current tech, as they’ll get a new car with newer battery tech and computer tech before they see any benefit in waiting for the 4680. Maybe a few hundred bucks in resell.
You may not be wrong, but to believe it because Sandy Munro said it and they played a song....?
finman100
Member
EVERYONE will benefit million mile batteries! the used car market is WAAAAYYYYY huge. a LOT bigger than the new car market.
I can't wait to see beater Tesla's still going strong after 10-15 years of use. it has to happen. or beater cheap gas cars will still be with us.
I can't wait to see beater Tesla's still going strong after 10-15 years of use. it has to happen. or beater cheap gas cars will still be with us.
Alot of the 4680 hype has disappeared with underwhelming introduction of the Austin Model Y. I would be skeptical until we have real world experience and reporting on these cars. If I was buying now I would wait a year to see if they experience problems.
How much money are you people making that so many of you get a new $80,000 car every six years!!
I cant believe so many people would spend $80,000 on a car without wanting to keep using it for decades
I cant believe so many people would spend $80,000 on a car without wanting to keep using it for decades
The Austin Y has the same MPGe as the MY LR. The Austin Y has new features, but apparently no benefit from the changes.
Preferring the Austin Y is a decision based on hope.
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