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When is Tesla gonna start producing for U.S?

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interesting. so you think vins should start going out within 1-2 weeks?
As others have stated, Tesla produces on a quarterly basis, with production early in each quarter slated for overseas deliveries, followed by production for the eastern US and Canada, and production late in each quarter destined for the western US and eventually just California. This enables Tesla to maximize production in a given quarter to be delivered in the same quarter, which is good for Tesla's bottom line.

The trouble is that, for a period of several months, Tesla was specifying "2 weeks" as the delivery time for all US orders. This 2-week figure was fairly accurate for orders in the final month or so of each quarter, even for "fresh" deliveries from the factory. Earlier in the quarter, it would only be accurate if Tesla happened to have a car in inventory nearby, and that often required changing some detail, like the car's color. Thus, lots of people said that the 2-week delivery estimate was misleading, and there's some truth to that -- even if some people got their cars within that window, others would not. Understanding Tesla's production schedule was -- and is -- key to predicting how soon you'll get a car that you order.

It seems to me that Tesla has taken the criticism of the "2 week" delivery estimate to heart and has updated their Web site. A few weeks ago, the delivery estimate for US orders jumped considerably, but it's come down since then. (It currently specifies 5-7 weeks.) I haven't tracked the figures precisely, but it looks like all these estimates are aiming for late December deliveries, which is consistent with what's happened in previous quarters. If Tesla's Web site is to be believed, they have few or no cars in inventory in my area, and I'd guess that would be true nationwide, so buyers today can't count on getting a car from inventory quicker than the end of December.

My own prediction, which is worth precisely as much as anybody's paid for it, is that Tesla will deliver the vast majority of cars ordered (in the US) before the end of November by the end of December, and probably most of those ordered before mid-December, too. This is consistent with what's happened in previous quarters. Case in point: I ordered my car in mid-March (the 14th, I believe) and received it on March 30th. That's not quite within the 2-week delivery window Tesla was claiming at the time, but it's close enough. OTOH, the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays may slow down production and delivery a bit at the end of the quarter. I have no idea what Tesla's production schedule is for the holidays. It's also conceivable that Tesla has a bigger backlog of orders now than they have at similar points in other recent quarters, in which case orders placed past December 1, or maybe even today, might slip into January, or conceivably even later.
 
We just don’t know very much right now. We wont know until lots of cars start being delivered. I still think the US is just getting a “trickle” of total production.

Last 2-3 weeks — is Tesla predicting X-mas madness and going to surprise us with some earlier deliveries? We don’t know. in December doesn’t make sense, but nothing until now has made sense.

Tezz-la shows a very small number of excess cars. Are they still going overseas? No one really knows.
 
Got an email from the Operations Adviser in Portland today saying my car would be delivered sometime in December and they "expect before January". I ordered SR+ White/Black on 9/28. I had to unload a bit on him on how disrespectful it is to keep their customers in the dark for so, so long. This was my first delivery estimate from Tesla.

Though those of us in the forums realize this is to ensure the long term viability of the company which is important to us too we have lives and financial obligations to arrange on such a purchase and the company needs to be more transparent on their decision making.
 
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Got an email from the Operations Adviser in Portland today saying my car would be delivered sometime in December and they "expect before January". I ordered SR+ White/Black on 9/28.

Wow, just wow. I have had a comment back in late October from my SA that there would be deliveries in early November, Mid-November or late November or maybe sooner. Based on that response I concluded they have no idea esp as it was just that they were expecting deliveries - not my delivery! Once it arrives I know that my angst will be relieved. My wife on the otherhand....
 
So it looks like Tesla is still producing majority of its cars for international markets. From recent pictures of trailers of with only right sided steering and euro plates it confirms that. So when is Tesla gonna switch over to domestic costumers? It’s getting ridiculous how some people have waited now, with some performance customers going back to September. I’m still going to wait but cmon Tesla, where’s these cars or at least vins with a real timeline. I feel like no one is getting cars delivered to them.
Are the 3's on the Devon lot all spoken for? I was there three days ago.
 
Wow, and I thought I was the only one. Wife is a bit begrudging of the purchase (she will totally come around), but in the meantime, I have to refer to the car as "the name I dare not say".

Maybe I'll name my Model 3 "Voldemort". :)
Begrudging?! My wife has threatened to go on an online shopping spree if I talk about the car again. She can spend enough to buy a LR AWD in a day if she puts her mind to it!

It's not husbands or wives - it's the significant other. Whoever wants to buy the car often has a "spouse" that is really thinks we are nuts.

Then again, we probably are nuts.
 
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Begrudging?! My wife has threatened to go on an online shopping spree if I talk about the car again. She can spend enough to buy a LR AWD in a day if she puts her mind to it!

It's not husbands or wives - it's the significant other. Whoever wants to buy the car often has a "spouse" that is really thinks we are nuts.

Then again, we probably are nuts.
My wife decided to go on a meditation/yoga retreat in India for three weeks leaving me with our 2 and 4 year old. I work fulltime while she is a homemaker. I don't think I would have been very supportive, but used it to basically say I'm getting a Tesla. And tough s*** if you think Elon is out to take over the world in Terminator fashion. She still says She will never go anywhere in my car, assuming it's ever delivered...
 
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Oh ... I suspect that lots of us are under the threat of some kind of torture at home to not mention the "T" word!
Oh good, I am not the only one! Mine doesn't like to talk about it. Shes so mad at me for wanting yet another car as i have only had my Audi for 2.5 years.. I can't share my excitement that its coming.. someday. Nor can I discuss my anger it hasn't been produced. Sure cannot wait to set her back in her seat on the first drive. :)
 
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Oh good, I am not the only one! Mine doesn't like to talk about it. Shes so mad at me for wanting yet another car as i have only had my Audi for 2.5 years.. I can't share my excitement that its coming.. someday. Nor can I discuss my anger it hasn't been produced. Sure cannot wait to set her back in her seat on the first drive. :)
Lol I didn’t tell my wife anything hoping I would get the car before the $2500 deposit posted on the CC statement Lol but oh well now she knows.
 
Oh good, I am not the only one! Mine doesn't like to talk about it. Shes so mad at me for wanting yet another car as i have only had my Audi for 2.5 years.. I can't share my excitement that its coming.. someday. Nor can I discuss my anger it hasn't been produced. Sure cannot wait to set her back in her seat on the first drive. :)

Sorry about all these problems everyone is having. I ordered a new X for my wife, so she is probably as anxious as me to get it and I don't talk too much about it other than she knows when it comes I will be driving it the most until years end so my business use will be higher.
 
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My wife decided to go on a meditation/yoga retreat in India for three weeks leaving me with our 2 and 4 year old. I work fulltime while she is a homemaker. I don't think I would have been very supportive, but used it to basically say I'm getting a Tesla. And tough s*** if you think Elon is out to take over the world in Terminator fashion. She still says She will never go anywhere in my car, assuming it's ever delivered...

Yes, there is the issue of whether our cars will ever be delivered. Sounds like she is really political about Musk. Not good if you are driving a Tesla.

Oh good, I am not the only one! Mine doesn't like to talk about it. Shes so mad at me for wanting yet another car as i have only had my Audi for 2.5 years.. I can't share my excitement that its coming.. someday. Nor can I discuss my anger it hasn't been produced. Sure cannot wait to set her back in her seat on the first drive. :)

An Audi for 2.5 years? Oh well, she'll get over it. My wife sure knows how to spend money. I couldn't possibly keep up as I tend to be a tight wad. But the sharing part sucks. I don't think you're alone there. I think it applies to many people - if one person in a relationship likes cars, it is uncommon for both to be into cars. It makes this Tesla waiting really much harder.