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When is ultra Long Range battery coming?

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When that happens, people will find something else to argue about, like fueling time vs. Dc fast charging time. It will get harder to find advantages fas cars have until finally one day, they’re obsolete.
Even if BEV don’t get to the same range as an ICE it won’t matter. Some governments are forcing behaviour changes by banning ICE cars. BEV are not the ultimate solution however, ICE for general use should be viewed as toxic. .

Using range or charging time is not a valid argument. Cost of a BEV is a valid reason.

I have no time to listen to people that purchase a £80k ~ $90k ICE about their decision v BEV.
 
The argument is made only by people who compare EV ranges to their gasoline powered counterparts, without taking in other considerations. They just can’t wrap their head around a car that can only go for two hundred something miles instead of 300-400. All the above statements about charging at home, having to pee, stopping after some 200 miles are completely valid, but it’s the biggest strike against the EV they make.

Because, people want 350-400 mile ranges because that’s how much the typical gas car has. So yes, EV’s may actually reach that point, but not much further than that. Why? Too heavy and costly.

Once an EV gets to the same range as an ICE car, the gasoline car range advantage is absolutely, positively, gone. Done. Finished. By that time, there will be a much larger charging infrastructure too.

When that happens, people will find something else to argue about, like fueling time vs. Dc fast charging time. It will get harder to find advantages fas cars have until finally one day, they’re obsolete.
Nope, range isn't the only concern. Range is actually much less of a concern than it has been. The biggest issues are cost, battery life, and battery replacement costs. I've said many times that an EV only makes financial sense if one drives a lot of miles to off-set those factors. Then add in those other items. An EV makes sense for some, but certainly not for all.
 
The argument is made only by people who compare EV ranges to their gasoline powered counterparts, without taking in other considerations. They just can’t wrap their head around a car that can only go for two hundred something miles instead of 300-400. All the above statements about charging at home, having to pee, stopping after some 200 miles are completely valid, but it’s the biggest strike against the EV they make.

Because, people want 350-400 mile ranges because that’s how much the typical gas car has. So yes, EV’s may actually reach that point, but not much further than that. Why? Too heavy and costly.
I think the reason gas cars have a range of 350-400 miles is that, at normal driving speeds, this is about how long you can go before you need to empty your bladder. So, there isn't much reason to make a car that can go farther than that before having to stop because drivers would have to stop anyway to use the restroom. The issue with EVs though is that with current battery technology, they can only fast charge up to around 40-60% SoC, so you actually need a vehicle that can go 600-700 miles on a full charge in order to get 350-400 miles quickly and get back on the road.
 
I think the reason gas cars have a range of 350-400 miles is that, at normal driving speeds, this is about how long you can go before you need to empty your bladder. So, there isn't much reason to make a car that can go farther than that before having to stop because drivers would have to stop anyway to use the restroom. The issue with EVs though is that with current battery technology, they can only fast charge up to around 40-60% SoC, so you actually need a vehicle that can go 600-700 miles on a full charge in order to get 350-400 miles quickly and get back on the road.
I'd call 80% the SOC most are targeting for DC charging. Although there will be some tapering of the charge level before that, it should still be at a good rate. I agree you need to factor that in when looking at the effective range and making a purchase decision , if you will be traveling beyond the range on a normal basis. One should also factor in the battery degradation over time as well, and I'm using 15% for that number.
So for my math it's:
Effective Range when new - 15% = Long Term Range
Long Term Range X 80% = Projected Travel Range
 
I'd call 80% the SOC most are targeting for DC charging. Although there will be some tapering of the charge level before that, it should still be at a good rate. I agree you need to factor that in when looking at the effective range and making a purchase decision , if you will be traveling beyond the range on a normal basis. One should also factor in the battery degradation over time as well, and I'm using 15% for that number.
So for my math it's:
Effective Range when new - 15% = Long Term Range
Long Term Range X 80% = Projected Travel Range
That sounds about right. My MS 2015 with 128k degradation is about 11%, give or take. I think new was 232 and nowadays 210-212. Odd I got 170 last at 80%
 
When you factor in these things, the car’s range drops drastically. That is fine for daily commutes because I can easily charge at home daily, but it’s a serious limitation on a long trip.

I will report back once I do take the car out on a long trip with my experience.

You had one error in your estimate, for road trips, you always charge to 100% but yes range will be affected by weather. However, combining supercharging (or equivalent) with destination charging (allows you to arrive at low charge) the range becomes a non-issue for real-world road-tripping.

I have to note though that with a gass guzzler, you can easily go out on "around-the-country-day-trips" if you want (only possible alone in the car or with toddlers because no grown-up passengers will submit to such intense hardcorde driving), but with an EV you simply cannot because you will run out of hours in the day. Tesla Bjorn has done quite nice comparisons EV vs gas on a long road trip.
 
Question is just that, when is a long range battery (450 miles +) going to arrive? if ever?

I have a tesla today and its a great car and I am sold! But range is a major issue right now. The best you can get is 330 miles on a full charge but in reality, after factoring 80% (to keep battery healthy), and real world driving, the range reduces drastically to about 250 miles, give or take. That means, this is a daily commute car at best. Can't take it out on long trips. For that, you still need to keep an ICE.

This is something Elon knows as well that is stopping massive adoption of EVs. Is it realistic to expect a 450+ range by at least 2023?
I’d be pretty chuffed at the prospect of a 400mi usable range at 400wh/mi
 
Question is just that, when is a long range battery (450 miles +) going to arrive? if ever?

I have a tesla today and its a great car and I am sold! But range is a major issue right now. The best you can get is 330 miles on a full charge but in reality, after factoring 80% (to keep battery healthy), and real world driving, the range reduces drastically to about 250 miles, give or take. That means, this is a daily commute car at best. Can't take it out on long trips. For that, you still need to keep an ICE.

This is something Elon knows as well that is stopping massive adoption of EVs. Is it realistic to expect a 450+ range by at least 2023?
I never understand this question, and what the problem the asker is trying to solve.

What's the advantage of a battery with 450+mile rated range over a 350 mile rated range? Is it that the OP has lots of trips in the 350+mile range, which he thinks he could do with a 450+ mile rated battery, where he has to make a quick SC stop with a 350 mile battery? If the trip is over 450 miles, then, with either battery, he's making a stop, right? So, is the only advantage for very specific trips longer than the current 350 mile battery, but shorter than the hypothetical 450 mile battery? Why the aversion to using a supercharger?

In the above example, if you're on a 400 mile trip with a 350 mile battery, just stop for 5 mins and charge. You don't have to fill up, but just add enough juice to get to your destination, presumably home, where you can charge at a lower cost. Anyway, I never get the question.

For most people, the battery size comfort zone is determined by their bladder size. For most, it's every 2hrs. One should stop, not just to use the toilet, but to stretch one's legs. It's good for safety to stay fresh and alert by stopping often. Trying to drive 400 miles without any stops is a bit insane. It can be done, but why?
 
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I think the reason gas cars have a range of 350-400 miles is that, at normal driving speeds, this is about how long you can go before you need to empty your bladder.
I would suggest that another driving factor for longer ICE range is the ability to delay the miserable ritual of driving to or stopping at one of those filthy gas stations for a little longer during one's normal daily life.
Trip range is important but, for most, doesn't come into play since they don't it or very seldom if they do.
 
Also good to keep in mind, the carbon footprint of your car is larger if your battery capacity is larger (due to manufacturing of the battery), so any excess range would not be ecological.

"Producing a 75 kilowatt-hour battery for a Tesla Model 3, considered on the larger end of batteries for electric vehicles, would result in the emission of 4,500 kilograms of CO2 if it was made at Tesla's battery factory in Nevada. That’s the emissions equivalent to driving a gas-powered sedan for 1.4 years, at a yearly average distance of 12,000 miles, Hausfather said." PolitiFact - CO2 output from making an electric car battery isn't equal to driving a gasoline car for 8 years
 
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For most people, the battery size comfort zone is determined by their bladder size. For most, it's every 2hrs. One should stop, not just to use the toilet, but to stretch one's legs. It's good for safety to stay fresh and alert by stopping often. Trying to drive 400 miles without any stops is a bit insane. It can be done, but why?
For most peple... driving an EV :)

C'mon!
I am driving happily a model S since three years now. I made my choice and I would do it again.

Said that, it is a non sense to teach people saying that "you must - need - should stop every 2 hours"...

This "coaching" stress is coming out since Ev came into play.

Why nobody was coaching in this way in the ICE era???
 
Also good to keep in mind, the carbon footprint of your car is larger if your battery capacity is larger (due to manufacturing of the battery), so any excess range would not be ecological.

"Producing a 75 kilowatt-hour battery for a Tesla Model 3, considered on the larger end of batteries for electric vehicles, would result in the emission of 4,500 kilograms of CO2 if it was made at Tesla's battery factory in Nevada. That’s the emissions equivalent to driving a gas-powered sedan for 1.4 years, at a yearly average distance of 12,000 miles, Hausfather said." PolitiFact - CO2 output from making an electric car battery isn't equal to driving a gasoline car for 8 years
That's a narrow-minded, attitude that misses the big picture.
The larger battery will last longer, both because it gets less stress and because its useful life, especially in the secondary market is longer.
I'll work out an example in detail when I have the time.
 
That's a narrow-minded, attitude that misses the big picture.
The larger battery will last longer, both because it gets less stress and because its useful life, especially in the secondary market is longer.
I'll work out an example in detail when I have the time.
That ignores the fact that all batteries degrade due to time, temperature, and cycles. Temperature and cycle life is already managed well. A battery with a rated 6,000 cycle life, which is what we generally see today, is theoretically good for ~15 years. However in the real world, the "time" factor of ~10 years is what gets us today.
 
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This "coaching" stress is coming out since Ev came into play.

Why nobody was coaching in this way in the ICE era???
There was plenty of coaching in the ICE era. It came from your parents, relatives, friends, driver-education instructor, etc:
- change your oil ever 5,000 miles
- cheaper gas can be found farther from the freeway interchanges or near Costco
- Don't park your car overnight in cold country with less than half a tank or add a gasoline additive
- turn off your A/C when climbing steep grades in the summer
- check your antifreeze to be sure it is ok for cold temperatures
- don't ride the clutch
- shift as late as you can to maximize fuel economy
- feather the throttle to get better mpg
- trade it in after 100,000 miles since, after that, your repair costs will exceed the cost of a new car (these days, this is more like 150,000 miles , but that's what I was taught)
- oil drip on the ground. Put an additive in the oil filler.
- dieseling when you stop? Burn high octane fuel for a couple of tanks to clean out the carbeurator
- running rough? get a tune up
- when it is cold, don't let it idle to heat up as that will damage the engine. Better to just get going.
- don't let it sit for more than a couple of weeks without running it or the starter battery will run down
- slow cranking? need a new battery
- etc
You just take it all that ICE coaching for granted. EV coaching is different and actually, a lot simpler. It's just new to many of us.
 
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We need to do a little maths...plug in car and start timing...five minutes to find a toilet, add two minutes for shy bladder and another five for enlarged prostate...but a dog takes twenty minutes to pee on every surface available...you don’t need a bigger battery...just a bigger dog...
 
That ignores the fact that all batteries degrade due to time, temperature, and cycles. Temperature and cycle life is already managed well. A battery with a rated 6,000 cycle life, which is what we generally see today, is theoretically good for ~15 years. However in the real world, the "time" factor of ~10 years is what gets us today.
I agree with the time issue, however, we really don't know exactly how it will play out there is some good analytical work out there but we really won't know until around the 10 year point and for the last 10 years, battery technology has been changing a lot so looking at our old 14 year old cars doesn't tell us a whole lot.
 
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That's a narrow-minded, attitude that misses the big picture.
The larger battery will last longer, both because it gets less stress and because its useful life, especially in the secondary market is longer.
I'll work out an example in detail when I have the time.

Partly true if you think the battery is recyclable at a higher rate so in effect you are only delaying the full benefit of the battery - eventually it will be fully utilized when recycled one way or another.
 
There was plenty of coaching in the ICE era. It came from your parents, relatives, friends, driver-education instructor, etc:
- change your oil ever 5,000 miles
- cheaper gas can be found farther from the freeway interchanges or near Costco
- Don't park your car overnight in cold country with less than half a tank or add a gasoline additive
- turn off your A/C when climbing steep grades in the summer
- check your antifreeze to be sure it is ok for cold temperatures
- don't ride the clutch
- shift as late as you can to maximize fuel economy
- feather the throttle to get better mpg
- trade it in after 100,000 miles since, after that, your repair costs will exceed the cost of a new car (these days, this is more like 150,000 miles , but that's what I was taught)
- oil drip on the ground. Put an additive in the oil filler.
- dieseling when you stop? Burn high octane fuel for a couple of tanks to clean out the carbeurator
- running rough? get a tune up
- when it is cold, don't let it idle to heat up as that will damage the engine. Better to just get going.
- don't let it sit for more than a couple of weeks without running it or the starter battery will run down
- slow cranking? need a new battery
- etc
You just take it all that ICE coaching for granted. EV coaching is different and actually, a lot simpler. It's just new to many of us.
I like your reply, but is not the "coaching" I was referring to.

One is to coach how to use the car and maintain it. On this point EV are by far easier: just care of the battery charging and nothing else.

Other is to coach people telling them how often they have to stop driving... Nobody felt the need of this kind of coaching whe only ICE car existed. Now with the EV a lot of people is "teaching" how often you have to stop.

Why? :)
 
I like your reply, but is not the "coaching" I was referring to.

One is to coach how to use the car and maintain it. On this point EV are by far easier: just care of the battery charging and nothing else.

Other is to coach people telling them how often they have to stop driving... Nobody felt the need of this kind of coaching whe only ICE car existed. Now with the EV a lot of people is "teaching" how often you have to stop.

Why? :)
Yes, there are a lot of EV drivers as well as ICE drivers who have a lot of time and sometimes money on their hands in which to drive slowly around the country. They recommend that others spend a lot of time making many stops. I understand them but don't share their situation. I drive because I hate and actually get injured from squeezing my large frame into tiny airplane seat so I avoid airplanes as much as possible. I do, however, need to get to my destination in reasonable time so I kind of ignore those leisure drivers and focus on getting to my destination quickly. This, also takes coaching for some to understand how to charge fastest. It is a bit trickier than ICE but is still doable.
 
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