A lot of the time, it seems people judge whether or not a battery swap station would be used based entirely on basic owner interest. In the Shareholder meeting, Elon talked about people just not being particularly interested in the battery swap.
In my opinion, this is completely looking at it in the wrong way. People won't choose battery swap because it is faster. People will choose battery swap when it avoids (often unexpected) congestion delays.
Here's a really easy way to think about it.
You show up at a Tesla charging site, there is an open battery swap bay and an open Supercharger. Which do you pick?
You show up at a Tesla charging site, there is an open battery swap bay and NO open Superchargers. Which do you pick?
It's not going to be about what people want. It's going to be about how crowded the stations get. Battery swap is a pressure relief valve. If Tesla can continue build out such that Superchargers remain mostly open, there will be very little battery swap use. But if Supercharger build out lags and stations start getting crowded, battery swap use (if available) will rise dramatically.
In my opinion, this is completely looking at it in the wrong way. People won't choose battery swap because it is faster. People will choose battery swap when it avoids (often unexpected) congestion delays.
Here's a really easy way to think about it.
You show up at a Tesla charging site, there is an open battery swap bay and an open Supercharger. Which do you pick?
You show up at a Tesla charging site, there is an open battery swap bay and NO open Superchargers. Which do you pick?
It's not going to be about what people want. It's going to be about how crowded the stations get. Battery swap is a pressure relief valve. If Tesla can continue build out such that Superchargers remain mostly open, there will be very little battery swap use. But if Supercharger build out lags and stations start getting crowded, battery swap use (if available) will rise dramatically.