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When should I place my order to get a 2020?

Denis54

Member
Oct 8, 2019
6
0
Montréal
I want to get an AWD M3. Since we not very far from the end of the year I would prefer to get a 2020 as this would probably result in lower depreciation in 3-4 years when I want to get rid of it. When I should I order?
 

afadeev

Member
Feb 28, 2019
778
931
NYC
I want to get an AWD M3. Since we not very far from the end of the year I would prefer to get a 2020 as this would probably result in lower depreciation in 3-4 years when I want to get rid of it. When I should I order?

In 2020, and make sure to custom build your car vs. taking one from the Tesla dealer/SC inventory.
Per NTSA rules, 10th digit will correspond to the model year when the vehicle was manufactured.
In 2020, it will flip from K to L.

Vehicle identification number - Wikipedia

HTH,
a
 

ElectricOrgan

Member
Oct 11, 2019
131
254
USA
I want to get an AWD M3. Since we not very far from the end of the year I would prefer to get a 2020 as this would probably result in lower depreciation in 3-4 years when I want to get rid of it. When I should I order?

I would wait until 2022 or so. These cars are still in a state of flux and there will be many changes and improvements by then. More importantly virtually ever automaker will have multiple models available and you may well find something that suits you much, much better.

If you want a reasonably priced EV with 300 miles of range, right now you have a choice of exactly 1. What are the chances that will be the car you want to own in a couple of years when there will be dozens to choose from?

A guy I met at a Supercharger with a very early model 3 realized that he couldn't get anything very large in the trunk because it was not a hatchback. The opening just isn't very tall. He was very enthusiastic about the car mostly because it is an EV, but was discovering things that didn't really suit him.

I've never really understood why they built the model 3 before the model Y when they knew (or at least everyone else did) that the SUV/crossover body is more popular. That was the car to splash the world with in 2018!

We'll see what EVs are the rage in 2022.
 
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OCR1

Active Member
Jan 28, 2018
3,765
4,280
Southern California
Why not order now and see if you get assigned a 2020 VIN? It looks like Tesla may be changing their practices to begin assigning the new model year prior to the start of the new year. So if you can get a 2020 VIN in December and still get the $1,875 tax credit that seems like the best deal to me. If it doesn’t work out you can just delay taking delivery until January and wait for a confirmed 2020 VIN.
 

Someguy4747

Member
Oct 4, 2019
50
14
New Mexico
Why not order now and see if you get assigned a 2020 VIN? It looks like Tesla may be changing their practices to begin assigning the new model year prior to the start of the new year. So if you can get a 2020 VIN in December and still get the $1,875 tax credit that seems like the best deal to me. If it doesn’t work out you can just delay taking delivery until January and wait for a confirmed 2020 VIN.
I second this advice. Get a 2020 VIN and the tax incentive. Better order soon though cause NA deliveries seem to be backlogged at the moment.
 

jjrandorin

Moderator, Model 3, Tesla Energy Forums
Nov 28, 2018
10,854
12,581
Riverside Co. CA
It appears that Tesla has already switched over to 2020 VIN numbers according to this thread: My VIN reads 2020 model?

And that person never actually took poseession of that car.
Tesla gave my car away to someone else


If someone wants to guarentee getting a 2020 tesla, they will need to order the car in 2020, AND not get matched to a vin (ensure a factory ordered car). Tesla does not do model years like other car manufacturers, who release their "next model year" sometime between june and september of the previous year.

OP, The model year matters some with depreciation because people are fairly clueless about teslas, but in 3-4 years they will be MUCH less clueless.

What will matter then is not what year it was made, but exactly WHEN, because tesla changes on the fly. People will know that "the new computer came out in april of 2019 so I want a used tesla that is newer than that date".

The reason people focus on model years now, is that is when most car manufacturers swap to new things. Tesla doesnt wait for that, so the depreciation will eventually catch up, and the dates that people will focus on will not be tied to model years. It already happens with model S / X ("When exactly did the model S upgrade from MCU 1 to MCU2?" "When did the hardware change from HW2.0 to 2.5 or HW 2.5 to 3.0?) Those were NOT model years, so focusing on a model year for a tesla is a futile proposition once people actually figure out what they want.
 
Last edited:

jjrandorin

Moderator, Model 3, Tesla Energy Forums
Nov 28, 2018
10,854
12,581
Riverside Co. CA
I would wait until 2022 or so. These cars are still in a state of flux and there will be many changes and improvements by then. More importantly virtually ever automaker will have multiple models available and you may well find something that suits you much, much better.

If you want a reasonably priced EV with 300 miles of range, right now you have a choice of exactly 1. What are the chances that will be the car you want to own in a couple of years when there will be dozens to choose from?

A guy I met at a Supercharger with a very early model 3 realized that he couldn't get anything very large in the trunk because it was not a hatchback. The opening just isn't very tall. He was very enthusiastic about the car mostly because it is an EV, but was discovering things that didn't really suit him.

I've never really understood why they built the model 3 before the model Y when they knew (or at least everyone else did) that the SUV/crossover body is more popular. That was the car to splash the world with in 2018!

We'll see what EVs are the rage in 2022.

There are many upgrades in tech all the time. There is always "the next big thing". Do you think that, somehow in 2022, whatever the "next big thing" there is from ANY car MFR making EVs wont be supplanted by whatever the "next big thing" is in 2024?

With tech, if you are always waiting for "whats next" you will be forever waiting. Meanwhile, for me personally at least, I will be saving 2k a year the cost of gas while driving this car instead of my BMW, and enjoying driving this car more than I did my bmw.
 
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Someguy4747

Member
Oct 4, 2019
50
14
New Mexico
And that person never actually took poseession of that car. If someone wants to guarentee getting a 2020 tesla, they will need to order the car in 2020, AND not get matched to a vin (ensure a factory ordered car). Tesla does not do model years like other car manufacturers, who release their "next model year" sometime between june and september of the previous year.

OP, The model year matters some with depreciation because people are fairly clueless about teslas, but in 3-4 years they will be MUCH less clueless.

What will matter then is not what year it was made, but exactly WHEN, because tesla changes on the fly. People will know that "the new computer came out in april of 2019 so I want a used tesla that is newer than that date".

The reason people focus on model years now, is that is when most car manufacturers swap to new things. Tesla doesnt wait for that, so the depreciation will eventually catch up, and the dates that people will focus on will not be tied to model years. It already happens with model S / X ("When exactly did the model S upgrade from MCU 1 to MCU2?" "When did the hardware change from HW2.0 to 2.5 or HW 2.5 to 3.0?) Those were NOT model years, so focusing on a model year for a tesla is a futile proposition once people actually figure out what they want.
Lots of brands make little to no changes from year to year and the model year still impacts resale value. Tesla’s will be no different. Look at used Model S prices comparing, for example 2017 and 2018 models. The newer model year will command more. Whether or not it makes sense, it is how people have been conditioned to think for a long time. As with all cars, models before or after major updates will see the biggest impact in value. I think OP is reasonable in his desire to weigh the benefits of a tax incentive now vs the likely increased depreciation of a 2019 on the future.
 

jjrandorin

Moderator, Model 3, Tesla Energy Forums
Nov 28, 2018
10,854
12,581
Riverside Co. CA
Lots of brands make little to no changes from year to year and the model year still impacts resale value. Tesla’s will be no different. Look at used Model S prices comparing, for example 2017 and 2018 models. The newer model year will command more. Whether or not it makes sense, it is how people have been conditioned to think for a long time. As with all cars, models before or after major updates will see the biggest impact in value. I think OP is reasonable in his desire to weigh the benefits of a tax incentive now vs the likely increased depreciation of a 2019 on the future.

I know people are conditioned to want "newer model year" because that normally either has some feature, or lower miles. I am saying that, for teslas, this will catch up to the car, and the model year will not matter nearly as much as what feature it does or does not have inside that model year.

If someone is savvy and shopping for a model S, they want one with MCU2 if they can afford it. That was not a model year change as far as I know. The date that will be important will be the date some new feature came out that you cant get on the new tesla. The year matters NOW, it will matter less in the future.

If I were buying a used model S, I would place a premium on one that had MCU2 and HW2 over one that did not, and those might be cars in the same model year. The one with MCU2 and HW2 would likely be priced higher.

Someone might value the fact that the roof glass has the full "orange glow" anti reflective coating, or does not have that... and that also was not a model year change. Neither was the change from version 1 seats to version 2 seats in model 3s. There is a lot more of that type stuff and tesla does not change it during the model year.

If one is dumping it on a car dealership, the model year will matter more because thats all they know to go on. If one is actually trying to maximize value, what will matter more is what features you have that are desirable, and that does not go by model year.


I also get why people do this, but I still think it is extremely strange to base when you are buying a new car on what its worth when you are going to sell it. If you are going into it with the mindset "I am going to sell this in 3-4 years" then one should just lease it and give it back.

If one is BUYING it, and going to only keep it 3-4 years, that is always a money losing proposition (well unless you are buying a collectible car, of which these definitely are not.). If one is buying it and going to keep it 5-6 or more years, the difference in model year will be small enough to not matter in most cases at that point. Why buy the car based on what its worth if you sell it? Either lease it and give it back, or buy it and plan to hold it a while.
 

jrsxxxjrs

Member
Oct 23, 2019
8
9
Dallas, Texas 75252
It appears that Tesla has already switched over to 2020 VIN numbers according to this thread: My VIN reads 2020 model?

I can verify the same is true for me. Today (Oct 23rd, 2019) I received an email from Tesla letting me know that they were ready to schedule me to pick up my Model X. I confirmed the first available date (2 weeks from today) and then got the VIN from my sales rep. The 10th character is indeed an L, and when I gave the VIN to my insurance company they confirmed that it came up as a 2020 Tesla Model X.
 

ElectricOrgan

Member
Oct 11, 2019
131
254
USA
The reason people focus on model years now, is that is when most car manufacturers swap to new things. Tesla doesnt wait for that, so the depreciation will eventually catch up, and the dates that people will focus on will not be tied to model years. It already happens with model S / X ("When exactly did the model S upgrade from MCU 1 to MCU2?" "When did the hardware change from HW2.0 to 2.5 or HW 2.5 to 3.0?) Those were NOT model years, so focusing on a model year for a tesla is a futile proposition once people actually figure out what they want.

That's not so common for other car makers either. I had a 1997 T100 and Toyota had made major changes to the innards midyear so that I had to use the serial number to make sure I got various parts right. Alternator, water pump, clutch, the list goes on. With my Tundra I have to use the serial number to make sure I get the right tailgate stays.
 

XLR82XS

D M C
Jul 26, 2019
3,155
1,955
SWFL | Vegas
And that person never actually took poseession of that car.
Tesla gave my car away to someone else

If someone wants to guarentee getting a 2020 tesla, they will need to order the car in 2020, AND not get matched to a vin (ensure a factory ordered car). Tesla does not do model years like other car manufacturers, who release their "next model year" sometime between june and september of the previous year.
Not true. I have a 20MY.
 

jjrandorin

Moderator, Model 3, Tesla Energy Forums
Nov 28, 2018
10,854
12,581
Riverside Co. CA
Not true. I have a 20MY.

Delivered? Not "to be delivered, but in your possession?" If so, then it sounds like tesla started making model year 2020 cars early, like other manufacturers. Wouldnt be the first time they changed course on stuff. If its delivered, does the paperwork actually SAY 2020 on the MVPA, or are you just going by the vin number?

In any case, Unless EVERYONE taking delivery now is getting 2020 vehicles, If buying a 2020 was a stipulation of getting the tesla, I would not order now if it were me. No guarentee that tesla is making only 2020's. They do strange things... would not be out of the norm for tesla to still be making 2019s and also be making 2020s.

Its a strange company when it comes to this stuff.
 

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