When Tesla will catch up with Waymo and Cruise at delivering L4?

[ThomasD]

So level 5 on any road in any weather. Even snow Yes these are actual roads

 

[FloridaJohn]

Elon is being very conservative here.

L
O
L

 

[ImHere4theGang]

Better pole.

How many waymo rides have you taken?
o 100+
o 50-100
o 25-50
o 1-25
o zero
o I’ve never heard of anyone using waymo

 

[Goose66]

I voted never. Tesla has the most advanced driver assist features available in the marketplace that will, IMO, someday qualify as SAE L3 features. Telsa currently has no platform upon which they will be able to roll out an L4 driverless robotaxi service like Waymo or Cruise.

 

[EVNow]

The correct answer to the question "When Tesla will catch up with Waymo and Cruise at delivering L4?" is .... Tesla has already caught up ! Infact so have all other companies.

Number of vehicles Waymo and Cruise have delivered at L4 : 0
Number of vehicles Tesla has delivered at L4 : 0

 

[jeewee3000]

Yeah this poll is BS.

Waymo and Cruise systems are supervised by control drivers. Those drivers are just not present in the vehicle but operate from a distance. That is why these systems can only be used by a minimal amount of users: there have to be enough control drivers.
Also these systems rely on expensive hardware and HD maps.

What these criticisms have in common: they are NOT scalable. Ever.

So when will Tesla catch up to Waymo/Cruise? Never. The current FSD beta is arguably already better than Waymo/Cruise.

 

[t3sl4drvr]

The correct answer to the question "When Tesla will catch up with Waymo and Cruise at delivering L4?" is .... Tesla has already caught up ! Infact so have all other companies.

Number of vehicles Waymo and Cruise have delivered at L4 : 0
Number of vehicles Tesla has delivered at L4 : 0

You have not been much in San Francisco lately, have you?

(L4 is not sci-fi any more, you see them daily driving around with no driver)

 

[t3sl4drvr]

Waymo and Cruise systems are supervised by control drivers.

Source?

 

[EVNow]

You have not been much in San Francisco lately, have you?

(L4 is not sci-fi any more, you see them daily driving around with no driver)

So? Where are the delivered L4 cars ?

PS: you seem to have difficulty figuring out that delivering Consumer AVs is not the same as geohacked pilots those companies run in small areas.

Ps : There are other companies that have robotaxi pilots in China too.

 

[AndreP]

Yeah this poll is BS.

Waymo and Cruise systems are supervised by control drivers. Those drivers are just not present in the vehicle but operate from a distance. That is why these systems can only be used by a minimal amount of users: there have to be enough control drivers.
Also these systems rely on expensive hardware and HD maps.

What these criticisms have in common: they are NOT scalable. Ever.

So when will Tesla catch up to Waymo/Cruise? Never. The current FSD beta is arguably already better than Waymo/Cruise.

This is like saying the Taxi industry and stuff like Uber is not scalable, but they operate everywhere. If you can have actual drivers operating taxis around the world, why not a Robotaxi with remote monitoring?

If we're talking FSD as a personal chauffeur then obviously it could never scale to consume every vehicle on the road, but a Robotaxi service is supposed to supplant the Taxi industry and then some. I don't think Elon/Tesla's vision of FSD is as a personal chauffeur...


I was thinking about Elon's statements around FSD creating the biggest asset value increase in history and how this would vary hugely depending on context, because a FSD-enabled Tesla in a huge, busy, and vehicle-unfriendly city like NYC will produce far better returns than a FSD-enabled Tesla in rural Kansas. Whenever this vision is realized, the real impact and value increase will depend on many factors.

 

[nativewolf]

It’s not changing the subject. It’s pointing out the flawed logic/assumption of the question. I’m not sure how to make this more clear than others and I have repeated ad nauseam: Tesla seems to be going for all cities, not geo-bound/select cities.

Perhaps you’d understand if you think about the question: “It’s quite simple. When will Waymo or Cruise have a car that can drive people around in any city’s streets without a driver?”

But you are not answering the fundamental question. Today Waymo is offering a robotaxi experience. It's meaningless to me but it exist and might matter to someone in San Fran or other geo fenced city. It would be neat to try it out actually. That said if I had a Tesla I could get an incredible driver assist package but I will never be able to get out of the drivers seat (if I had the beta fsd that is limited to 60k people and kept my driving score perfect). Get out of the drivers seat is my goal, I want a chauffeur but am a poor forester. For Tesla to even contemplate getting a driver out of the front seat (level does not matter this is what matters) they will have to have a new hardware stack and 2 new cameras (ok- most likely 2). The way that Tesla iterates I could see them needing to go through 2 hardware revisions. They're going to have to recall cars to physically modify vehicles if they expect any current vehicle to achieve L4. These are all fairly safe and really not controvertible statements. Until new hardware rolls out the answer is that Tesla is both soaring ahead but falling behind.

I don't see anyway the current hardware is going to get the driver out of the front seat and as @Knightrider007 stated Tesla stopped selling FSD that promised to do so.

 

[TresLA]

But you are not answering the fundamental question. Today Waymo is offering a robotaxi experience. It's meaningless to me but it exist and might matter to someone in San Fran or other geo fenced city. It would be neat to try it out actually. That said if I had a Tesla I could get an incredible driver assist package but I will never be able to get out of the drivers seat (if I had the beta fsd that is limited to 60k people and kept my driving score perfect). Get out of the drivers seat is my goal, I want a chauffeur but am a poor forester. For Tesla to even contemplate getting a driver out of the front seat (level does not matter this is what matters) they will have to have a new hardware stack and 2 new cameras (ok- most likely 2). The way that Tesla iterates I could see them needing to go through 2 hardware revisions. They're going to have to recall cars to physically modify vehicles if they expect any current vehicle to achieve L4. These are all fairly safe and really not controvertible statements. Until new hardware rolls out the answer is that Tesla is both soaring ahead but falling behind.

I don't see anyway the current hardware is going to get the driver out of the front seat and as @Knightrider007 stated Tesla stopped selling FSD that promised to do so.

We have answered the fundamental question. You just aren’t liking the answer: because of Tesla’s different approach to autonomous vehicles, it seems they will have a robotaxi service in US cities when they’re confident of being able to drive autonomously in cities across the USA.

 

[EVNow]

But you are not answering the fundamental question.

Here is your answer - provided by Cruise CEO.

Autonomous Car Progress

Some interesting things the Cruise CEO said just a few months back that is opposite of what Waymo fans here insist is the "only way" to make FSD work. And he acknowledges that using multiple sensors, HD Maps and Geofencing are all temporary measures and the ultimate goal is not achievable with...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[t3sl4drvr]

The current FSD beta is arguably already better than Waymo/Cruise.

Self deception is deep in here.

Maybe the next poll should be formulated as: "You'll send your kids across San Francisco on a 30min ride on the back seat of a self-driving car. With no driver. In San Francisco. Today. You are given option of Tesla (FSD Beta), Cruise and Waymo. Which one you choose?"

 

[ThomasD]

These companies keep saying that rides will be cheaper if we just remove the driver. If you need remote monitoring then you are not paying a driver but paying someone to monitor the vehicle. Rooms full of people remotely monitoring thousands of cars 24/7 will be expensive. Will those people need driver licenses? Will remote operators need CDLs for monitoring of AV Semis?

 

[2101Guy]

I notice a trend where anytime a poll that has TMC members majority not in favor of Elons vision/dreams/fantasy of FSD? The poll is "this poll is BS". LOL
On a board FULL of Tesla lovers.

Imagine if the poll was on a neutral forum. MAN those survey numbers would be off the hook., hahaha

 

[Daniel in SD]

This year:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1495914627963965443

 

[EVNow]

This year:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1495914627963965443

Hard to believe but apparently some people actually think FSD will get a lot better magically within a year.

I think they have not looked at the current disengagement rate to realize we need 100x to 1000x improvement.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Hard to believe but apparently some people actually think FSD will get a lot better magically within a year.

I think they have not looked at the current disengagement rate to realize we need 100x to 1000x improvement.

Don't underestimate Elon!
I suppose it depends what function you fit to the disengagement rate. Obviously I also think it's impossible that they'll achieve driverless operation with greater than human safety this year.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

This is like saying the Taxi industry and stuff like Uber is not scalable, but they operate everywhere. If you can have actual drivers operating taxis around the world, why not a Robotaxi with remote monitoring?

If we're talking FSD as a personal chauffeur then obviously it could never scale to consume every vehicle on the road, but a Robotaxi service is supposed to supplant the Taxi industry and then some. I don't think Elon/Tesla's vision of FSD is as a personal chauffeur...


I was thinking about Elon's statements around FSD creating the biggest asset value increase in history and how this would vary hugely depending on context, because a FSD-enabled Tesla in a huge, busy, and vehicle-unfriendly city like NYC will produce far better returns than a FSD-enabled Tesla in rural Kansas. Whenever this vision is realized, the real impact and value increase will depend on many factors.

Because if you don't eliminate the taxi driver, all you have mainly done is increased the cost of the vehicle.

Now, if you want to talk about remote operators of semis that's a different matter.