When the Tesla Gigafactory is build in ~2016 - Will the Model S drop in price?

[gglockner]

I disagree. Right now, many buyers are getting around 10-15% discount thanks to tax subsidies. Those will expire roughly around the time the Gigafactory is operational. Thus, I expect the Gigafactory will allow Tesla Motors to make a small drop in the Model S price. Perhaps they will split the difference: take some in higher margins, and pass some savings to buyers.

 

[cpa]

I am in agreement with Red Sage: When the Gigafactory is up and running, and the Model III is in production, Tesla will discontinue the Model S 60kWh pack. There needs to be some perceived difference in size of the battery (like the engines in ICE cars--less expensive models from the same manufacturer do not have the availability of the larger V6/V8 motors of their pricier cousins.) The average consumer equates a larger number with "better" or "faster" or "more expensive." If the Model III and the entry-level Model S both have 60kWh packs, an uninformed buyer might not understand the how and why. And Tesla still wants to move their Models S and X.

The 85kWh battery would become the "standard" size for the future S and X. As now, there would be upgrade options to a hypothetical 110 or 125kWh battery.

Moreover, owners of the later Models S and X with these larger-capacity batteries would be able to bypass more Superchargers on road trips thereby mitigating charging congestion at popular Superchargers as the Model IIIs with less range begin to realize the superlative benefits of driving a Tesla on trips to Grandmother's house and elsewhere!

 

[DrGuest]

I, too, am hoping for an increase in Range. I would love to have 500 miles per charge, then I can go North and South in Montana and not just East or West along the I-90 Supercharger route. Bozeman's Supercharger is going in. I just drove by the Hilton Garden Inn and they were putting in some electrical. Montana will be so easy to travel once all the Montana Superchargers are in place.

 

[JohnQ]

I don't understand this talk about cheaper batteries via the Gigafactory equaling more range in the vehicle. There are weight and space considerations as well. A new form factor may address space, to a certain degree, with more efficient packaging and cooling. And that will likely have a minor impact on weight. But, until a new battery chemistry is available that significantly alters the energy density, there would be an increase in vehicle weight that may also require reengineering of suspension and other structures in the car. Not saying it's impossible, just saying that it's not going to happen within 2 years after the factory opening.

 

[DrGuest]

Over time the Gigafactory chemistry is also likely to change.

Elon Musk Believes 500-Mile Range EVs Possible Soon.
by Mark Atkinson July 25, 2014
Not content to let Tesla rest on its laurels with the highest 265-mile EPA-rated range of the Model S 85, company CEO Elon Musk figures making an electric vehicle with over 500 miles of range wouldn’t take long to develop.Musk, who was being interviewed by Auto Express, said Tesla could do it “quite soon, but it would increase the price. Over time you could expect to have that kind of range.” One reason Musk is reasonably sure of that success has to do with Tesla’s proprietary lithium-ion batteries, which he says are have the greatest energy-density of anything yet on the market, and nearly twice the density of the popular Nissan Leaf. But beyond batteries, other factors like wind- and rolling resistance, and other efficiencies play a big role in getting more than double the range of the 24-kwh Leaf.
The easy suggestion would be to simply add more cells to the system, but the radical weight gain as a result would work against itself in acceleration, handling and braking.

I don't understand this talk about cheaper batteries via the Gigafactory equaling more range in the vehicle. There are weight and space considerations as well. A new form factor may address space, to a certain degree, with more efficient packaging and cooling. And that will likely have a minor impact on weight. But, until a new battery chemistry is available that significantly alters the energy density, there would be an increase in vehicle weight that may also require reengineering of suspension and other structures in the car. Not saying it's impossible, just saying that it's not going to happen within 2 years after the factory opening.

 

[Red Sage]

I don't understand this talk about cheaper batteries via the Gigafactory equaling more range in the vehicle.

In the most recent Earnings Conference Call both JB Straubel and Elon Musk noted that the battery cells from the Gigafactory may be a different physical format from what is currently used in the Tesla Model S. That change in format will be to allow greater density of energy in a more efficient package, for use in the Model ≡. Even so, the Tesla Model S may continue to use the same size/shape battery cells that are currently supplied by Panasonic, but that doesn't mean they won't improve in energy density as well.

There are weight and space considerations as well. A new form factor may address space, to a certain degree, with more efficient packaging and cooling. And that will likely have a minor impact on weight.

JB Straubel has stated before that even without a change in format, lithium ion battery cells effectively double in capacity every ten years or so. Even if the battery cells have only improved by 50% in 2017 from what was used in 2012, it will still allow a Tesla Model S to have perhaps a 128 kWh to 142 kWh battery pack with a minimal increase in weight. I predict they will have something like a 135 kWh battery pack for the Model S by then, and possibly a 170 kWh battery pack. I estimate that with a 135 kWh battery pack the Model S could manage about 421 miles of EPA rated range. That would climb to 530 miles or so with a 170 kWh battery pack.

But, until a new battery chemistry is available that significantly alters the energy density, there would be an increase in vehicle weight that may also require reengineering of suspension and other structures in the car. Not saying it's impossible, just saying that it's not going to happen within 2 years after the factory opening.

I'm considerably more optimistic than most are about what Tesla Motors will be able to manage over the next three-to-six years.

Take a look at this thread: The 500 Mile Tesla

I posted multiple times there about my projections, which are of course, almost certainly wrong. ;-)

 

[Rheazombi]

I disagree. Right now, many buyers are getting around 10-15% discount thanks to tax subsidies. Those will expire roughly around the time the Gigafactory is operational. Thus, I expect the Gigafactory will allow Tesla Motors to make a small drop in the Model S price. Perhaps they will split the difference: take some in higher margins, and pass some savings to buyers.

I like this idea if they are able to do it!

 

[Genebe]

In the most recent Earnings Conference Call both JB Straubel and Elon Musk noted that the battery cells from the Gigafactory may be a different physical format from what is currently used in the Tesla Model S. That change in format will be to allow greater density of energy in a more efficient package, for use in the Model ≡. Even so, the Tesla Model S may continue to use the same size/shape battery cells that are currently supplied by Panasonic, but that doesn't mean they won't improve in energy density as well.


JB Straubel has stated before that even without a change in format, lithium ion battery cells effectively double in capacity every ten years or so. Even if the battery cells have only improved by 50% in 2017 from what was used in 2012, it will still allow a Tesla Model S to have perhaps a 128 kWh to 142 kWh battery pack with a minimal increase in weight. I predict they will have something like a 135 kWh battery pack for the Model S by then, and possibly a 170 kWh battery pack. I estimate that with a 135 kWh battery pack the Model S could manage about 421 miles of EPA rated range. That would climb to 530 miles or so with a 170 kWh battery pack.


I'm considerably more optimistic than most are about what Tesla Motors will be able to manage over the next three-to-six years.

Take a look at this thread: The 500 Mile Tesla

I posted multiple times there about my projections, which are of course, almost certainly wrong. ;-)

One of my biggest concerns is that as battery technology advances over the next decade, the current Model S will be an albatross due to the size/shape of the battery used possibly being incompatible with the future battery. If updating a 2014 Tesla to the range of a 2020+ model is just a matter of swapping out battery packs, then buying one today makes sense. Of course, there will be many advancements in the future, and many features not currently available, but the biggest limitation (for me) isn't lacking parking assist or heads-up display, but a solid 300+ mile range in any weather or situation.


That said, my wife & I are still very positive on Tesla stock (which we have) and the Model S (which we're planning to purchase).

 

[jdevo2004]

I can see price drops in strategic markets where Tesla is not selling as well as it would like. Europe is a good example.

 

[Red Sage]

One of my biggest concerns is that as battery technology advances over the next decade, the current Model S will be an albatross due to the size/shape of the battery used possibly being incompatible with the future battery.

I don't believe that will be an issue. There are the battery cells, and there is the battery pack. You don't replace individual cells. You just replace the entire pack. Tesla Motors has already been changing the battery packs over the past two years since the Model S was first released. They don't stand still, they continually innovate to improve their products, reevaluating their means of doing things to make sure they are offering the best possible product to their Customers.

 

[tga]

I think people get too hung up on the "EV technology is advancing" and "I don't want to get stuck with outdated tech" mantra.

What, exactly, is the concern here? Batteries, or something else? It's not like Tesla is going to magically invent a flying car, one that teleports, or one powered by Mr. Fusion. Any (non-drivetrain) innovations will happen industry-wide. Some manufacturers will be first, but everyone else will catch up in a year.

Do you really need more HP, 0-60, or top speed (if you aren't in Germany)?

If it comes down to batteries, than it's a simple answer. Does 60 or 85kWh (with access to superchargers) give you enough range for your current/planned usage? If so, buy the car and stop worrying. So what if a 120kWh version magically appears in a year? If you don't need to travel 300 miles non-stop, then you shouldn't care how big the battery is in a year.

If 265 miles isn't enough, than don't buy the car. It's not really that hard a decision to make.

I didn't consider any of the other EV's out there, because 50% of my driving is 120 mile one way trips (some with mountains), and I'm not interested in a car that I can only use for my commute (the other 50%). That leaves the Model S and Volt as the only viable electric options for me (please, no "Volt isn't a real EV").

 

[dayhu99]

The price should drop in Canada At present time there is a 6% duty on imports to Canada because the Tesla does not meet the % USA requirements of the North America Auto pact When the giga factory is built the US content of the car will go up substantially so the duty should be removed

 

[breser]

The price should drop in Canada At present time there is a 6% duty on imports to Canada because the Tesla does not meet the % USA requirements of the North America Auto pact When the giga factory is built the US content of the car will go up substantially so the duty should be removed

That makes a huge assumption that I'm not sure we can make. That the batteries produced in this factory will be used in Model S. My understanding is that this factory is to be able to support the capacity and cost they need to make the Model 3 a mass market success. I have to believe that at least part of that implies changes to the batteries. If they do make changes to the batteries they may not be drop in replacements for the Model S packs. Sure they could rework the batteries in the Model S (as they have done already A vs D packs). But if I was Tesla I'd concentrate on getting the Model 3 finished and just continue to source the same batteries for the S from Japan.

 

[iffatall]

The price should drop in Canada At present time there is a 6% duty on imports to Canada because the Tesla does not meet the % USA requirements of the North America Auto pact When the giga factory is built the US content of the car will go up substantially so the duty should be removed

That makes a huge assumption that I'm not sure we can make. That the batteries produced in this factory will be used in Model S. My understanding is that this factory is to be able to support the capacity and cost they need to make the Model 3 a mass market success. I have to believe that at least part of that implies changes to the batteries. If they do make changes to the batteries they may not be drop in replacements for the Model S packs. Sure they could rework the batteries in the Model S (as they have done already A vs D packs). But if I was Tesla I'd concentrate on getting the Model 3 finished and just continue to source the same batteries for the S from Japan.

Didn't Elon mention this in the Japanese release? I believe he said that most probably, Model S will continue to source batteries from Panasonic in Japan even after the Gigafactory starts production - the heart of Model S will stay Japanese. I am paraphrasing of course.

 

[robby]

I think people get too hung up on the "EV technology is advancing" and "I don't want to get stuck with outdated tech" mantra.

What, exactly, is the concern here? Batteries, or something else? It's not like Tesla is going to magically invent a flying car, one that teleports, or one powered by Mr. Fusion. Any (non-drivetrain) innovations will happen industry-wide. Some manufacturers will be first, but everyone else will catch up in a year.

Do you really need more HP, 0-60, or top speed (if you aren't in Germany)?

If it comes down to batteries, than it's a simple answer. Does 60 or 85kWh (with access to superchargers) give you enough range for your current/planned usage? If so, buy the car and stop worrying. So what if a 120kWh version magically appears in a year? If you don't need to travel 300 miles non-stop, then you shouldn't care how big the battery is in a year.

If 265 miles isn't enough, than don't buy the car. It's not really that hard a decision to make.

I didn't consider any of the other EV's out there, because 50% of my driving is 120 mile one way trips (some with mountains), and I'm not interested in a car that I can only use for my commute (the other 50%). That leaves the Model S and Volt as the only viable electric options for me (please, no "Volt isn't a real EV").

For me the fear is missing out on self-driving/autopilot/autonomous vehicles, which would improve my happiness a great deal and are a frontier of the near-present.

 

[Red Sage]

In a world...

Where people have 'flipped' houses... Refinanced homes... Leased multiple cars in series... Purchased a 'new car' like clockwork every three years, trading in the old...

I find it rather hard to believe it would be so tough to get over a technological advance to a Tesla product in the short term.

I would suggest... patience. Or... just get one, drive it, and enjoy it. While you can.