When to buy?

[Artiste]

I'm very tempted by the M3, and was surprised that I could get one in July if I ordered today. I can't decide, though, when would be the best time to buy. Early adopters tend to pay a premium, and I'm certain prices of the M3 will fall soon, if only because the price of batteries is steadily falling. At the moment I believe that the cost of the battery is about 33% of the cost of an average EV, but this will fall to 20% within a couple of years (it used to be 54%). Also, all mainstream car manufacturers are investing heavily in EVs and bringing out more and more models and so increasing the competition. EVs are set to be a comparable price to diesel/petrol cars by 2022, if not sooner.

Tesla is one of the few car companies where it's impossible to get a discount using a broker. At the moment on AutoeBid you can get 18.8% off a BMW i3, 16.7% off a Nissan Leaf, 21.3% off a Golf and a massive 34.6% off a Reanault Zoe. And absolute nada off a Tesla! Once the immediate demand for the M3 has been satisfied in this country I really think that competition will force prices down.

So, do I buy now, or do I wait 12 months to see what happens? Or do I go with my original choice and get 20% off an Audi A6? Its build quality and comfort is far superior to the M3, and I could buy a top of the range model with loads of extra options and still save several £thousands. Oh, and I'd really miss my head up display if I bought an M3!

It is, of course, a rhetorical question!

 

[interbear]

I’d say buy now if you are in the fortunate position to do so. Life’s too short, if your wait another year there will then be a different reason to wait another year. And so on. Or, perhaps wait a couple of months for the initial UK order frenzy to calm down, some of the config options may change so you may get more choice ie. the LR AWD may make a reappearance.

I think that in the UK we are in quite a fortunate position with the M3 in that all (or most) of the launch challenges / issues when the car was initially introduced should have been ironed out as that pain was suffered by early adopters in the USA. Pricing wise, who knows? Battery supply will probably still be a challenge for a few years yet so I don’t see prices tumbling quite so quick. I think the value of fossil fuel powered cars will decline far quicker so I wouldn’t be buying one of them new today, even with a big discount.

In terms of alternatives, my current car is an 18 month old Audi A4 Avant. Black Edition so all the mod cons. It’s a great car in all honesty and the build quality is outstanding. But I’ve decided now is the time to go electric largely for environmental reasons. Zero emissions, tech, supercharger network and performance of the Tesla M3 are positives that I will balance against it’s lesser build quality vs the Audi. That said, the M3 I looked at in the Bristol store seemed very well put together to me.

I could easily run the Audi for several years (thankfully I bought it used so won’t suffer the bulk of the depreciation) but I want to stop emitting CO2 and that’s what drove my decision to buy now. Your purchase timing really depends on your reasons for going electric - if it’s emissions, the sooner the better, if it’s cost savings, wait a while. But not too long

 

[Yev000]

Tesla is one of the few car companies where it's impossible to get a discount using a broker.

Or you could look at it another way, if Tesla was sold via a broker it would be on average 10% more expensive and you could only get the manufacturer price if you haggled a lot.

If you are expecting Model 3 prices to go down then you might be disappointed in the near term (2 years). SR will arrive once China is online and it will probably retail at ~35k GBP after grant. But you are going to get less range as well as fewer other goodies.

Any other EV maker you cant use Tesla supercharger network, which by itself is worth something. Even if fast charging via Ionity or similar grows (which it will) you will still have net fewer charging options on any long trip.

Another advantage that is not being talked about much is heat management of the battery pack - this is vital for fast charging and range during winter. You wont get a 40k GBP car with good heat management at the moment. Most cheap EVs don't have heat management at all, this kills the battery much faster.

Exclusive: details on Hyundai’s new battery thermal management design

Tesla has a proven track record for battery life. I wouldn't buy other EVs simply due to reliability of the battery. Not to mention other issues Recalls for the Audi e-tron and Jaguar I-Pace - electrive.com

And Tesla is the only car manufacturer that does over the air updates...

Then there is the in built dash cams, sentry mode, AP....

If you buy right now, you will probably get it delivered in September (ignore what the website says). I don't know when there will be stock, looking at Europe LHD market, there still isn't much, if any, stock after 4 months of deliveries. So if you want a quick purchase to delivery time you might have to wait till next year.

The way I look at it is every month I wait to buy one is one more month of fuel I have to buy and Tesla is the only EV that looks to be a better way of making cars. Other EVs are trying to be ICE cars with a battery.

 

[Avendit]

Welcome to the fold! First, it won't be July - the website pretty much outright lies at the moment. They are still in initial UK delivery mode, but August/Sept might not be unreasonable expectation to set, but that is based off amalgamating lots of rumors so who knows really!

As Interbear said, if they have the config you want just now then no reason not to really. If you want an EV in the next year Tesla is pretty much the only game in town just now. I don't think there will be any new EV's in the near future. The KIA's are production limited so you can't get one this year now (and well, its a KIA. I know I wouldn't), the VW early production runs are mostly spoken for, are golf equivalents, not A6's and who knows when you will be able to walk into a dealer and actually buy one. The Jag and Audi are available but have their own problems around range and charging (I never wanted an SUV, so not been following them). So although most with M3 orders don't know when their's will turn up, its a short term don't know - its some time over the summer, not sometime in 2020+.

I don't see the M3 as an A6 competitor TBH. A6 would match up with the model S really. The 3 is more A4/3 series in size, and matches up to similar speed versions of these (S4/330 areas) if you price them up at retail. The ICE's are available cheaper, but I'm happy to pay the difference to make the change to what I see as the future of transport, and support and promote that change. The more I sit in traffic and pay for the 97/99 ron petrol my current car demands, the less I want my next car to have an exhaust pipe. I also accept that I'm an early adopter and some aspects of this will come back to bite me.

If you wait a bit longer options will likely come back to help balance the cost a bit, but they won't be discounts. On a quarterly basis there is usually an incentive of some kind, but its never off the base cost of the car. Tesla just aren't in a place to do that just now. If you wait lots of other answers will be easier too - test drives, seeing the car in person as a routine, just seeing them around and not being an early adopter. There is a good argument to sweat a current car for 6-12 months if you are on the fence.

Use the calculator on the tesla site for your mileage/congestion charging and the price might not seem quite so bad over a few years (or someone probably has a better more UK specific one somewhere). Use abetterrouteplanner.com to simulate some journeys with the various options they have sold in the past then decide what is right for you.

Avendit

 

[interbear]

The way I look at it is every month I wait to buy one is one more month of fuel I have to buy and Tesla is the only EV that looks to be a better way of making cars. Other EVs are trying to be ICE cars with a battery.

I think that’s a nice concise way of putting it. The ICE manufacturers are, currently, a bit compromised based on their legacy and need to continue supporting both platforms. Tesla have started electric and are innovating in terms of battery tech and charging network at a rate the ICE vendors will struggle to compete with for a while. They’ll get there, for certain, legislation will force it, but it will take them some time I think.

 

[interbear]

Use the calculator on the tesla site for your mileage/congestion charging and the price might not seem quite so bad over a few years (or someone probably has a better more UK specific one somewhere). Use abetterrouteplanner.com to simulate some journeys with the various options they have sold in the past then decide what is right for you.

Avendit

Good advice. What finally persuaded me to order the M3 was using the Tesla website to show me navigation routes, including superchargers, for the long trips I typically make in the UK and down to the south of France. I realised, quickly, that everything I do is absolutely possible with an EV, specifically a M3 with the decent real world range they can offer. Important to know that the vehicle can actually handle your needs without (too many) compromises. If it means stopping for an extra coffee and croissant en route, I’m good with that

 

[Avendit]

For in UK travel I realised that we don't have to compromise. We stop every 2 hours anyway and navigating 2 small children in and out of a services to the toilet is actually long enough of a charge for any journey I could imagine, allowing for arriving at a fairly low state of charge. No destination charging does mean that we need to stop for lunch at one stop, but we would anyway. No way the kids are eating in the back seat the mess they make!

Once they put the towball option up the only compromises for us are its more £££ that would be ideal and I would have liked an estate or at least a hatch. I'll cope.

 

[Yev000]

The Jag and Audi are available but have their own problems

The mere fact that they have to recall cars to fix a software issue would have me running in the other direction.

 

[pjuk]

I can't decide, though, when would be the best time to buy.

As stated before, it never really is a good time to buy nor is it a good time to wait. Have you driven a Tesla yet? If not get yourself booked in for a drive to have a feel of what it's like.

Its build quality and comfort is far superior to the M3

It's a luxury car because you'll pay luxury car tax.. build quality is probably on par with mid-range Audi/Merc/BMW. That said Tesla have been exceptional in promising to sort out a number of cosmetic issues with my MX.

It is, of course, a rhetorical question!

Yup

No way the kids are eating in the back seat the mess they make!

I had a no eating rule in my first car (Nissan Micra) 15 years ago. That lasted about 6 months. The no eating rule lasted about 1 month in the Audi. I ate a sandwich in the MX on my drive home from pick-up and had kids eating Pom-Bears and the neighbours kids scrambling over the rear seats whilst demo-ing the FWD the next day

 

[LukeT]

I'd also ask the question - what is price parity? It's not just purchase price, you need to factor in fuel, tax, servicing etc.

We're not there yet but an EV is easily close enough for me now to be an early ish (we're not really "early" any more are we?) adopter and see the difference as a small price to pay for a pretty big emissions reduction in place of buying a replacement ICE (mine's due for retirement).

If you agree that depreciation on ICE cars will accelerate more in the future then the calc changes again. I wouldn't bet on this myself in the life of most people's ownership of one car from now, but perhaps over a longer period.

 

[Alan J]

I faced the same dilemma but the things that promoted me to buy were :

- Getting on board with new Tech as soon as available (at reasonable price) in the UK.

- Cost Effiency of an EV, Octopus Energy do 5p per KWH Overnight so 20% - 80% = £1.85 same as a Medium Latte !

- Government Grants / Loans which won't be around forever e.g. £3.5K UK Gov Discount, £35K Interest Free Loan from Scottish Gov and £850 Grant from both for Home Charger / Installation.

- M3 is as Cool as hell !

 

[LukeT]

Government Grants / Loans which won't be around forever e.g. £3.5K UK Gov Discount, £35K Interest Free Loan from Scottish Gov and £850 Grant from both for Home Charger / Installation.

I would really hope a future government does more to incentivise EV purchasing though. Teresa May waited until she's essentially done before using the net zero emissions target to pretend her time in No 10 has been green, which it most certainly hasn't. But Extinction Rebellion et al only really made them sit up and take notice in the last few months. Perhaps things will change in the next year or two.

 

[Peteski]

Personally I wouldn't be able to get excited about the prospect of buying an Audi A6. Build quality is nice, but once you put away your Vernier calipers you are left with a very boring, mundane car. The Model 3 is a thousand times more interesting and once you go EV you won't want to give up the instant torque and ultra-smooth drivetrain.

Let me put it another way. After 18 months driving a Model X, we have ordered an M3 as a second car and didn't even consider an ICE alternative for even 1 nano-second. There is also no sign of any real direct competition for the M3. The alternatives are either big SUVs or granny cars!

 

[WannabeOwner]

surprised that I could get one in July if I ordered today.

If you are prepared to take a model that Tesla have surplus production vs. confirmed orders then I think July might be possible, but if not then September. Either way "not long"

I believe that the cost of the battery ... will fall to 20% within a couple of years

Are you prepared to wait two years - and not have had the opportunity / enjoyment driving one for that period? If so I recommend you wait, price will fall, market choice will increase. Of course if you are a high mileage driver you will lose out a lot on fuel-cost-saving.

all mainstream car manufacturers are investing heavily in EVs and bringing out more and more models and so increasing the competition

What like iPace and eTron? Both have come out 7 years after launch of model-S and can't compete with the original for range or performance. iPace beset with problems with its Infotainment (screens blanking etc.). Significant incompatibility between iPace and somewhat older 3rd party chargers (and pathetic max charging speed, even at chargers > 150kW the iPace still only charges at 70kW - far short of the publicised rapid charge speed, so you are looking at an hour for a decent recharge, as against 15-20 minutes for Tesla) . I have read [in UK Forum] of the excellent service of JLR [UK] in attending people with "cannot drive" cars, which is to be admired and applauded, but although I read of plenty of niggles amongst UK drivers in terms of annoyances or minor bugs in Infotainment (usually fixed by subsequent release after reasonably short interval), I have read of hardly any "couldn't drive" instances amongst UK owners. Far mre Tesla cars in UK ownership than iPaces ...

I wouldn't buy ANY other EV until public charging is at least as good as Supercharger. I've had a Supercharger Stall running slow once (I just moved to another stall), but never had one bust. At 3rd party chargers close to 50% that I have tried to use haven't worked. iPace drivers say they can't charge at almost all locations in Scotland. Supercharger is "Plug-in, walk-away". Can't do that with any 3rd party charging - my most recent episode took me 20 minutes to CONNECT. I would be done-charging at Supercharger in that time. Faster charging is coming, but currently 50kW is about as good as you are likely to get (as a against 120kW for Supercharger), and when Good 3rd party Charging is "everywhere" then as a Tesla owner you'll still also have all the Supercharger sites at your disposal too.

How many stalls are there are new 3rd party charger sites? Tesla have opened only ONE site with less than 8 stalls since 2015 !!

Tesla hold the top 3 slots in the USA Safety testing. No idea if USA testing is lousy ... but either way getting into the top 3 slots has got to make it better than the rest.

Tesla AutoPilot reduced the workload on the driver. On my regular long trips I arrive FAR more refreshed than ever I did driving with ACC. A recent update now alerts you if you are about to drive through a red light ... more to come on that front of course ...

... software enhancements have been impressive over the 3 years I've owned the car. One example: Car thefts soared once the crooks figured out how to defeat Passive Entry systems; within a couple of months Tesla released an OTA fix that prevented that; what of the others? I heard Merc have a really clever idea for a new key fob ... which you have to buy. Dunno about the others ...

Tesla is one of the few car companies where it's impossible to get a discount using a broker

Exactly. All other car makers provide a price to Dealers, and then the price you get is down to whatever you can negotiate with the dealer. The guy at the desk next to you might well get a better price. Tesla has a published price, you might score some minor Swag, but if there is an offer on (like "Free supercharging" on CPO at present) then that is public knowledge, so you won't be the sole unfortunate punter who didn't know to ask ...

Once the immediate demand for the M3 has been satisfied in this country I really think that competition will force prices down.

I doubt it. iPace was 10% less range at 75MPH, and eTron 20-25% ... since then Tesla has increased the range by about 10-15% ... the difference in range is also the same difference in "fuel" required too of course, and therefore cash.

I'd really miss my head up display if I bought an M3!

I've never had a car with one so no comparison point, but it occurs to me:

On the Motorway I'm on Autopilot. I don';t need to know what the speed limit / car speed etc. is, AP is taking care of that.

Similar in town car has various options to either alert me or prevent me exceeding speed limit.

Other than that would be the SatNav turning instructions. Given the car is doing the heavy-lifting of driving having to look at the main screen doesn't seem a significant drawback to me.

But maybe once I've had HUD I'll be a convert. Things like Central Locking I never know I needed ... until the first car I owned that had it

every month I wait to buy one is one more month of fuel I have to buy

Good point. If you charge at work the its free (i.e. no BiK tax to pay), if you charge at home Off peak then you save about £100 per month for each 10,000 miles you drive p.a. - if you charge at home on Off-Peak tariff it works out around 2p - 3p per mile (for fuel). Cheaper, and less frequent, servicing too. Set of brakes should last you 100,000 miles because of Regen. And so on.

 

[WannabeOwner]

I would really hope a future government does more to incentivise EV purchasing though

Whilst I don't disagree I already have:

Cash assistance buying the car
No Fuel Duty saving 75 of my fuel costs
A grant to assist with installing Charger at home
Incentives to buy as a business purchase
No congestion charge

Norway have done an excellent job (close to 50% of new cars sold are EV) ... so no doubt there is more that we could do, but what we have is pretty good compared to rest-of-world.

 

[LukeT]

Whilst I don't disagree I already have:

Cash assistance buying the car
No Fuel Duty saving 75 of my fuel costs
A grant to assist with installing Charger at home
Incentives to buy as a business purchase
No congestion charge

Norway have done an excellent job (close to 50% of new cars sold are EV) ... so no doubt there is more that we could do, but what we have is pretty good compared to rest-of-world.

That's all true but...

Fuel duty has stayed the same in absolute £/litre terms for a decade, which I find shocking and is a clear indicator of our great leaders' feelings on the matter. Had it just risen with inflation, and therefore stayed the same in real terms, it would be up 30+% in £nominal, and this would signify it occupying the same place in terms of policy making, our economy and therefore (arguably - there's much more to it than this of course) its effect on behaviour, emissions etc. Similar numbers would apply had it been structured as a percentage rather than £/litre.

A bit of a bugbear for me is that it seems to me that business buyers get much better supported in an EV purchase than private buyers because of accelerated capital allowances, which it seems to me is where most of the incentive lies. I'm on the right side of that, but why should I be? I think it's poor policy making. Plus I'm only on the right side of it if buying new, and it's the only reason I'm buying new.

 

[Avendit]

That's all true but...

Fuel duty has stayed the same in absolute £/litre terms for a decade, which I find shocking and is a clear indicator of our great leaders' feelings on the matter. Had it just risen with inflation, and therefore stayed the same in real terms, it would be up 30+% in £nominal, and this would signify it occupying the same place in terms of policy making, our economy and therefore (arguably - there's much more to it than this of course) its effect on behaviour, emissions etc. Similar numbers would apply had it been structured as a percentage rather than £/litre.

Getting way off topic here, but any way...

I thought pretty hard about this when the extinction rebellion stuff all kicked off as this seems like a really big, obvious, dial that policy can turn to influence behavior. The problem I thought with big movements of this dial is that this will unfairly punish the time or cash poor. It is (to Tesla's detriment) a reasonably small % of the UK who can afford to address escalating prices at the pump through just buying an awesome BEV car. For others who are struggling to make ends meet (I'm trying not to invoke the nurse/teacher/single mum stereotypes here but just did because I am lazy) who have to live out of town, but commute in to some actually totally typical job, it could result in a petrol vs food decision to be made with no option to purchase anything more efficient. Alternatives may exist, but public transport is pretty meh and cycling only works in some circumstances. Other support would have to increase drastically.

Turning it up over 10 years would work tho, especially starting now . Plenty of warning combined with depreciation on first gen Zoe's, Leaf's and M3's will intersect with that increasing price at some point. But I still don't think it will hurt those who can afford it enough.

I think some kind of yearly mileage allowance for ICE's, tied to emissions with PCP style punitive over mileage payments at each road tax year could work pretty well. People with inefficient cars can drive them a bit for pleasure or special occasions, but better look to something more economical for commuting in. Everyone in Yaris's and Renault C3's and stuff can largely carry on with their lives with an allowance of 10k miles. And because I'm nasty I would apply this retrospectively to all cars.

anyway. </rant> sorry.

 

[gangzoom]

So, do I buy now, or do I wait 12 months to see what happens? Or do I go with my original choice and get 20% off an Audi A6?

If you do the numbers and look at overall Tesla pricing than waiting is clearly the best financial decision, there is no doubt the same amount money will buy you a better Tesla next year. Our X is less than 2 years old and Tesla has made a raft of constant changes since, and will go on to continue to make changes.

But once you drive any Tesla you will simply not want to own anything else. The A6 is a tractor, historical relics compared to a Model 3.

As always with cars is head versus heart, and it all depends on which one is stronger for you.

I would advise NO ONE to buy any Tesla right now given the state of the company finances and a real potential to fail, but I did buy a X (twice), and its by far the best car I have ever owned. If faced with the same decision again, which car to buy for £75k it would another X again with no question!!

Its also very easy to dismiss what Tesla have done even in terms of just building a car. Am currently in a 7 seater Peugeot Expert manual diesel to ferry the family around whilst on holiday. Whilst it does the same job as our X the differences are crazy, this is a 2019 reg car, which despite been the same size and weight as our X feels like driving a boat versus something that keep a M3 honest on a B road

 

[Peteski]

I would advise NO ONE to buy any Tesla right now given the state of the company finances and a real potential to fail

Just think how brave those were who bought a Model S in 2012! I'm not counting the original Roadster as that was a rich man's plaything at the time, lol.

I think now M3 production is under control and truly taking hold on the market with strong reviews etc, Tesla has never looked stronger as a viable long term company. Sure it could still fail in theory, but so could the likes of JLR with their current woes. In both cases I would expect someone to buy them out before actually going under. If I was an investor looking at both ships, I would put more value on Tesla's future aspirations. Tesla have clearly chosen the right path forward and everyone else is scrabbling around to move onto it from whatever else they previously anticipated. Even Toyota now seem to be peforming an abrupt 180 on EVs!

 

[ediflyer]

Agree the media coverage has been universally positive both for the car and the SuC network