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When will 100+ KWh battery become available?

Discussion in 'Model X: Battery & Charging' started by Rodolfo Paiz, Nov 24, 2015.

  1. Rodolfo Paiz

    Rodolfo Paiz P85 "Plug and Play"

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    In an ideal world, I'd like to drive Miami-Orlando non-stop. Those 230 miles at 75-80 mph on the Turnpike use 1.3x to 1.4x rated miles, so I need 300 rated miles of range (105 KWh) plus reserve. I'm trying to defer my Model X purchase as much as possible in the hope that I'll be able to get it with a 100+ KWh battery.

    When speculating about the next time Tesla offers a larger battery for Model X:

    1. When would you estimate that Tesla will offer a larger battery?
    2. What capacity do you expect in that next capacity boost? 100? 110? 120?
    3. Why?
     
  2. vandacca

    vandacca Active Member

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    My guess is 100kWh in 4 years. According to EM/TM, batteries improve by ~5%/year. Biggest single-step improvement will be when Tesla begins using the new form-factor batteries (18650?) probably in a year or two.
     
  3. drewgould

    drewgould Member

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    Just speculating but it seems like if Tesla was close to offering a 100 KWh battery, they would offer it with the X. Considering they just announced the 90 KWh battery for the Model S (based on development for the X) in July 2015, and that was only a 5 KWh bump from the 85 they announced with the S year ago, I'd guess you probably won't see a 100+ KWh option until early-2017 at the earliest.
     
  4. deonb

    deonb Active Member

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    Based on what Elon said: 2 years
    Based on Tesla's actual track record: 9 years
     
    • Funny x 2
  5. shokunin

    shokunin P85 & S40

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    Once the gigafactory is producing the new larger cell size format we should see a bump in density. Hopefully we'll see cell production start next year and make it battery packs in 2017.

    I believe JB wanted at least 15-20% increase in density with the new cell format. That should easily provide a 100kw - 110kw pack size.
     
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  6. Jason S

    Jason S Model S Sig Perf (P85)

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    I laughed. But I think 4-5 years is reasonable to expect.
     
  7. Canuck

    Canuck Active Member

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    2017 is my guess too.
     
  8. ScepticMatt

    ScepticMatt Member

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    #8 ScepticMatt, Nov 25, 2015
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2015

    Actually JB Straubel expects about a 40% volumetric energy density improvement for the Gigafactory/Model 3 packs compared to the first Model S packs.
    This is mainly due to a improvement in packaging efficiency with a bit of cell chemistry improvement (10-15%).
    So I expect a bump in capacity once those cells become available for the Model S. 2017 at the earliest.

    Source 1: Conference call
    Elon Musk on Tesla’s F1-like service approach - Q2 2014 Earnings Call (7.31.14) AUDIO - YouTube

    Source 2: SBS Seoul Digital Forum
    Tesla Reimagines the Century-old Power Grid - JB Straubel | SDF2015 - YouTube
     
  9. Canuck

    Canuck Active Member

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    So that makes a 85kW = 119kW. I sure hope that comes true by 2017/18.
     
  10. apacheguy

    apacheguy Sig 255, VIN 320

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    Packaging efficiency? Has anyone seen wk057 photos inside the pack housing? There's no improvement to be made there.
     
  11. Canuck

    Canuck Active Member

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    I thinks that means the packaging of the actual cells themselves and that the format size will change to allow for more efficiency.
     
  12. ChrisC

    ChrisC see signature

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    Careful with the units, you meant kWh. It's wrong in your signature too. My Chevy Volt had 119 kW :)
     
  13. zer0cool

    zer0cool Member

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    Given 90 came out 2H 2015, even at Elon's announced rate, we won't see 100kwh until late 2017, which means realistically it ll be 2019 before there will be 100kwh. That would be my estimate.
     
  14. Rodolfo Paiz

    Rodolfo Paiz P85 "Plug and Play"

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    Sadly, I think I concur: 100 KWh will wait until the Gigafactory is up and running and battery tech has improved a little. So probably mid- to late-2017.
     
  15. ScepticMatt

    ScepticMatt Member

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    My guess is some of the density improvements will be used to reduce cost or improve margins instead.
    That would also be my guess as well.
     
  16. _TTT_

    _TTT_ Member

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    My guess - 110kWh in 2016.
     
  17. AnOutsider

    AnOutsider S532 # XS27

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    Feels a bit too soon. Maybe early 2017 after the GF is pumping them out
     
  18. dsm363

    dsm363 Roadster + Sig Model S

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    My guess as well.
     
  19. Mitrovic

    Mitrovic Member

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    I am a roadster driver since 2010.
    Got my Model S 1 week ago to replace our family van as I was not able to wait for the Model X to be delivered to Switzerland. It is a Model S 85.
    Don't ask why, but we need to move 5 persons, a dog and a cat on winter tyres in cold weather mainly on a highway. 380 Km without recharging. Our Model S was capable to do this only with reduced speed ( 120 Km/h would be allowed). We arrive with 1 % energy left. Makes my wife very nervous.
    So my calculation is that for a Model X which we like to have because of the increased space, and which I guess should have a bit higher consumption then the S, we would need a 120 kW/h battery.
    Not before 2018? Even later?
     
  20. pmadflyer

    pmadflyer Member

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    Off topic, but what if the model 3 starts with 60 kWh and 85 kWh options while the S and X have 90 kWh and 115 kWh? That would be insane for PR, but that would mean increasing cell output pretty radically compared to stated goals of 35 gWh for automotive yearly. I guess some things are just too good to be true.
     

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