Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register
  • The latest TMC Podcast (#17) is now available on YouTube and all major podcast networks. We covered EV Tax Credit 2.0, Model Y & 3 Gangbuster Sales, Low Model X Demand, and California FSD Drama.

When will 100+ KWh battery become available?

Rodolfo Paiz

Fidelius Family Office
Nov 19, 2012
788
133
Miami, FL
In an ideal world, I'd like to drive Miami-Orlando non-stop. Those 230 miles at 75-80 mph on the Turnpike use 1.3x to 1.4x rated miles, so I need 300 rated miles of range (105 KWh) plus reserve. I'm trying to defer my Model X purchase as much as possible in the hope that I'll be able to get it with a 100+ KWh battery.

When speculating about the next time Tesla offers a larger battery for Model X:

1. When would you estimate that Tesla will offer a larger battery?
2. What capacity do you expect in that next capacity boost? 100? 110? 120?
3. Why?
 
Just speculating but it seems like if Tesla was close to offering a 100 KWh battery, they would offer it with the X. Considering they just announced the 90 KWh battery for the Model S (based on development for the X) in July 2015, and that was only a 5 KWh bump from the 85 they announced with the S year ago, I'd guess you probably won't see a 100+ KWh option until early-2017 at the earliest.
 

shokunin

P85 & M3
Supporting Member
Feb 28, 2012
1,214
653
Irvine, CA
Once the gigafactory is producing the new larger cell size format we should see a bump in density. Hopefully we'll see cell production start next year and make it battery packs in 2017.

I believe JB wanted at least 15-20% increase in density with the new cell format. That should easily provide a 100kw - 110kw pack size.
 
  • Helpful
Reactions: vperl
Once the gigafactory is producing the new larger cell size format we should see a bump in density. Hopefully we'll see cell production start next year and make it battery packs in 2017.

I believe JB wanted at least 15-20% increase in density with the new cell format. That should easily provide a 100kw - 110kw pack size.


Actually JB Straubel expects about a 40% volumetric energy density improvement for the Gigafactory/Model 3 packs compared to the first Model S packs.
This is mainly due to a improvement in packaging efficiency with a bit of cell chemistry improvement (10-15%).
So I expect a bump in capacity once those cells become available for the Model S. 2017 at the earliest.

Source 1: Conference call
25:23 Journalist: On the Gigafactory, is the chemistry going to be the same battery chemistry that you're currently using or is that part of the discussions that are going on with Panasonic?
25:34 Elon Musk: There are improvements to the chemistry, as well as improvements to the geometry of the cell. So we would expect to see an energy density improvement and of course a significant cost improvement. JB, do you want to add anything?
25:53 JB Straubel: Yeah, that's right. The cathode and anode materials themselves are next generation. We're seeing improvements in the maybe 10% to 15% range on the chemistry itself.
Elon Musk on Tesla’s F1-like service approach - Q2 2014 Earnings Call (7.31.14) AUDIO - YouTube

Source 2: SBS Seoul Digital Forum
8:54 JB Straubel: And when we're looking forward to the next generation, our third generation product, we expect they are going to move, again, by about 40%
Tesla Reimagines the Century-old Power Grid - JB Straubel | SDF2015 - YouTube
 
Last edited:
So that makes a 85kW = 119kW. I sure hope that comes true by 2017/18.
My guess is some of the density improvements will be used to reduce cost or improve margins instead.
I thinks that means the packaging of the actual cells themselves and that the format size will change to allow for more efficiency.
That would also be my guess as well.
 
I am a roadster driver since 2010.
Got my Model S 1 week ago to replace our family van as I was not able to wait for the Model X to be delivered to Switzerland. It is a Model S 85.
Don't ask why, but we need to move 5 persons, a dog and a cat on winter tyres in cold weather mainly on a highway. 380 Km without recharging. Our Model S was capable to do this only with reduced speed ( 120 Km/h would be allowed). We arrive with 1 % energy left. Makes my wife very nervous.
So my calculation is that for a Model X which we like to have because of the increased space, and which I guess should have a bit higher consumption then the S, we would need a 120 kW/h battery.
Not before 2018? Even later?
 
Off topic, but what if the model 3 starts with 60 kWh and 85 kWh options while the S and X have 90 kWh and 115 kWh? That would be insane for PR, but that would mean increasing cell output pretty radically compared to stated goals of 35 gWh for automotive yearly. I guess some things are just too good to be true.
 

Products we're discussing on TMC...

About Us

Formed in 2006, Tesla Motors Club (TMC) was the first independent online Tesla community. Today it remains the largest and most dynamic community of Tesla enthusiasts. Learn more.

Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.


SUPPORT TMC
Top