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When will 100+ KWh battery become available?

Rodolfo Paiz

Fidelius Family Office
Nov 19, 2012
788
108
Miami, FL
In an ideal world, I'd like to drive Miami-Orlando non-stop. Those 230 miles at 75-80 mph on the Turnpike use 1.3x to 1.4x rated miles, so I need 300 rated miles of range (105 KWh) plus reserve. I'm trying to defer my Model X purchase as much as possible in the hope that I'll be able to get it with a 100+ KWh battery.

When speculating about the next time Tesla offers a larger battery for Model X:

1. When would you estimate that Tesla will offer a larger battery?
2. What capacity do you expect in that next capacity boost? 100? 110? 120?
3. Why?
 

vandacca

ReActive Member
Oct 13, 2014
3,371
2,203
Hamilton
My guess is 100kWh in 4 years. According to EM/TM, batteries improve by ~5%/year. Biggest single-step improvement will be when Tesla begins using the new form-factor batteries (18650?) probably in a year or two.
 

drewgould

Member
Sep 24, 2015
35
0
North Canton, Ohio
Just speculating but it seems like if Tesla was close to offering a 100 KWh battery, they would offer it with the X. Considering they just announced the 90 KWh battery for the Model S (based on development for the X) in July 2015, and that was only a 5 KWh bump from the 85 they announced with the S year ago, I'd guess you probably won't see a 100+ KWh option until early-2017 at the earliest.
 

shokunin

P85 & M3
Feb 28, 2012
1,199
630
Irvine, CA
Once the gigafactory is producing the new larger cell size format we should see a bump in density. Hopefully we'll see cell production start next year and make it battery packs in 2017.

I believe JB wanted at least 15-20% increase in density with the new cell format. That should easily provide a 100kw - 110kw pack size.
 
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Reactions: vperl

ScepticMatt

Member
Nov 5, 2014
453
10
Austria
Once the gigafactory is producing the new larger cell size format we should see a bump in density. Hopefully we'll see cell production start next year and make it battery packs in 2017.

I believe JB wanted at least 15-20% increase in density with the new cell format. That should easily provide a 100kw - 110kw pack size.


Actually JB Straubel expects about a 40% volumetric energy density improvement for the Gigafactory/Model 3 packs compared to the first Model S packs.
This is mainly due to a improvement in packaging efficiency with a bit of cell chemistry improvement (10-15%).
So I expect a bump in capacity once those cells become available for the Model S. 2017 at the earliest.

Source 1: Conference call
25:23 Journalist: On the Gigafactory, is the chemistry going to be the same battery chemistry that you're currently using or is that part of the discussions that are going on with Panasonic?
25:34 Elon Musk: There are improvements to the chemistry, as well as improvements to the geometry of the cell. So we would expect to see an energy density improvement and of course a significant cost improvement. JB, do you want to add anything?
25:53 JB Straubel: Yeah, that's right. The cathode and anode materials themselves are next generation. We're seeing improvements in the maybe 10% to 15% range on the chemistry itself.
Elon Musk on Tesla’s F1-like service approach - Q2 2014 Earnings Call (7.31.14) AUDIO - YouTube

Source 2: SBS Seoul Digital Forum
8:54 JB Straubel: And when we're looking forward to the next generation, our third generation product, we expect they are going to move, again, by about 40%
Tesla Reimagines the Century-old Power Grid - JB Straubel | SDF2015 - YouTube
 
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zer0cool

Member
Apr 26, 2015
506
332
charlotte, nc
Given 90 came out 2H 2015, even at Elon's announced rate, we won't see 100kwh until late 2017, which means realistically it ll be 2019 before there will be 100kwh. That would be my estimate.
 

Rodolfo Paiz

Fidelius Family Office
Nov 19, 2012
788
108
Miami, FL
Sadly, I think I concur: 100 KWh will wait until the Gigafactory is up and running and battery tech has improved a little. So probably mid- to late-2017.
 

Mitrovic

Member
Dec 30, 2010
666
92
Bern, Switzerland
I am a roadster driver since 2010.
Got my Model S 1 week ago to replace our family van as I was not able to wait for the Model X to be delivered to Switzerland. It is a Model S 85.
Don't ask why, but we need to move 5 persons, a dog and a cat on winter tyres in cold weather mainly on a highway. 380 Km without recharging. Our Model S was capable to do this only with reduced speed ( 120 Km/h would be allowed). We arrive with 1 % energy left. Makes my wife very nervous.
So my calculation is that for a Model X which we like to have because of the increased space, and which I guess should have a bit higher consumption then the S, we would need a 120 kW/h battery.
Not before 2018? Even later?
 

pmadflyer

Member
Jan 8, 2015
355
44
Shawnee, KS
Off topic, but what if the model 3 starts with 60 kWh and 85 kWh options while the S and X have 90 kWh and 115 kWh? That would be insane for PR, but that would mean increasing cell output pretty radically compared to stated goals of 35 gWh for automotive yearly. I guess some things are just too good to be true.
 

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