When will 100+ KWh battery become available?

[loganintx]

What's your point?

My point is your pulling an arbitrary number out of thin air and saying a bunch of people live that distance away from point B and they want to drive from point A to point B and back to point A without charging. I'm saying, what if point B is 20 miles further away from some other random group of people who also don't want to charge. What about the people who are 40 miles further away from point B.
Choosing a distance that is just outside the cusp of the current technology's range is a pointless argument since that distance will always exist no matter what the technology is able to achieve.

 

[calisnow]

My point is your pulling an arbitrary number out of thin air and saying a bunch of people live that distance away from point B and they want to drive from point A to point B and back to point A without charging. I'm saying, what if point B is 20 miles further away from some other random group of people who also don't want to charge. What about the people who are 40 miles further away from point B.
Choosing a distance that is just outside the cusp of the current technology's range is a pointless argument since that distance will always exist no matter what the technology is able to achieve.

Your post was originally asking someone to tell you why they felt they needed a larger battery - as though their desire for more range was silly/unjustified/unnecessary from the point of view of loganintx. You're not in that person's shoes - how do you know what their mission is? And yeah - maybe they just don't want to stop to charge, or they want to skip superchargers - that may not be important to loganintx but whether or not it you find it an important need is irrelevant to the other person. So yes - there is a need for a larger battery for that person.

And in So Cal we have huge distances to drive - don't know what Austin is like but we live in a very large place here. My next Tesla will have the largest battery I can reasonably afford.

 

[loganintx]

Everything is BIGGER in Texas

 

[stopcrazypp]

-The GF is already running and they are increasing the capacity, so at some point they will use GF cells for their Model S and X and that has to be before they use it for the Model 3, or else you will end up with unused factory equipment, they also won't change the cell format , built in the GF, just before the 3 and produce the old ones until then.

The Model S/X won't be using the same cells because the 3 cells don't appear to be compatible. From the CGI model during the unveiling, it seems the Model 3 uses taller cells (and fewer modules). The gigafactory will mainly be building powerwall/powerpacks right now and them maybe shift to some S/X packs (using existing cells).

I don't think Tesla has the time to do a pack redesign for the S/X, so likely those will continue using Panasonic 18650 cells.

 

[Canuck]

I think Tesla is ready to put out the 100 kWh pack yesterday, and had planned to have it out by now, but with the problems with delayed production of the X, and then the seat latch issue, resulting in many people getting their X vehicles just recently, it would be a real shot in the arm to those who waited a very long time to get their X only to find out if they ordered one now, they'd have one that can do that extra distance you need more in a SUV than in most any other vehicle. And those who think it is a small increase from a 90 to a 100, probably haven't spent much time driving over high mountain ranges where getting from one supercharger to another is a challenge (there's certainly no skipping one!), or driven anywhere of distance in winter, or added accessories that decrease range, or waited at the superchargers during that last painful topping up of the battery to get it to 100% since you need every last electron, etc. etc.

I think the X needs 125 kWh at a minimum before I'd consider it to replace my Tahoe Hybrid. Without that size of battery, there's no way I'd be able tow my boat from my home to my cabin and even at that it might not be enough. I don't know what is enough when it comes to battery size (can there ever be enough?) but I do know we're not there yet. I'd put us at the "adequate" stage. Not the "enough" stage. But it's coming.

 

[wdolson]

Believe that Tesla intends to take their S and X up market to make financial room for the Model 3 when fully equipped.

Expect to see higher capacity batteries, better interiors, more features like automatically opening and closing doors, better performance and range, faster supercharging, better lighting and entertainment systems.

I wouldn't be surprised if the X and S went more down market. People used to Mercedes and BMW complain that the S can't match those cars, but if cost of the S came down $20K, sales volumes would go up and they would be crushing Cadillac and Lincoln. All other car companies have much smaller price ranges between their mid-range priced car and their top car. Price overlap is usually pretty extensive.

If Tesla doesn't lower the price of the S and X, the Model 3 will likely collapse sales of those cars. Studies have shown over 50% of Model S buyers have never bought a car worth more than $60K before they bought their S. If they can get enough of the same features for 1/2 the cost, those people will buy Model 3s leaving the Model S and X around 20K cars a year in sales. If the price was close enough to the 3 that people felt the extra cost was worth it, sales will remain strong for the upper end cars.

 

[brianman]

If Tesla doesn't lower the price of the S and X, the Model 3 will likely collapse sales of those cars.

Let's assume for the moment you're correct that an almost-as-compelling as S/X vehicle is delivered in the form of a well-appointed Model 3 at a price much lower than S/X is sold at.

So what?

The mission is better served by Model 3 domination anyway. Model S and X are just stepping stones to get to Model 3.

 

[Canuck]

Let's assume for the moment you're correct that an almost-as-compelling as S/X vehicle is delivered in the form of a well-appointed Model 3 at a price much lower than S/X is sold at.

I think that's too much of an assumption. I think a "well-appointed" Model 3 will enter the low range of a Model S, making people who can afford an S think twice about "cheaping out" on a Model 3. Perhaps it will increase sales of the S? There's a lot of people out there with money to burn (the recession is long over) and bringing more attention to a brand usually results in increased sales across the line.

 

[brianman]

I think that's too much of an assumption. I think a "well-appointed" Model 3 will enter the low range of a Model S, making people who can afford an S think twice about "cheaping out" on a Model 3. Perhaps it will increase sales of the S? There's a lot of people out there with money to burn (the recession is long over) and bringing more attention to a brand usually results in increased sales across the line.

I agree, but my point was that even if you buy wdolson's premise of cannibalization it doesn't hurt Tesla -- it might actually help the mission rather than hurt it.

 

[TaoJones]

Them's fancy words!

This is even funnier if you read the above reply with the voice of Rooster Cogburn.

 

[wdolson]

I agree, but my point was that even if you buy wdolson's premise of cannibalization it doesn't hurt Tesla -- it might actually help the mission rather than hurt it.

For Tesla's credibility in the industry, they should be expanding their offerings and Elon's comments show every indication the plan is to offer many cars rather than just one platform. Discontinuing the Model S/X platform would set that plan back a generation. However, if they keep the price difference as it looks now, critics who say the Model S/X is way over priced would have a lot of merit. Elon has a pattern of disarming all possible criticisms against Tesla.

The main reasons the Model S/Xs costs what they do is the relative low volume production and the huge profit margin compared to other vehicles as well as the price of batteries. Once the Model 3 is on the market, battery prices will be down, they will be able to get better price breaks on materials as volume will be much higher overall, and then the only thing keeping the price up is the profit margin.

Tesla could also produce another vehicle based on the Model S/X platform. It would be a good platform for a smallish commercial vehicle like a mail delivery truck or other local delivery truck. If the vehicle didn't have to drive at highway speeds very often it would have good range, at least enough to run it's route daily.

 

[R.S]

The Model S/X won't be using the same cells because the 3 cells don't appear to be compatible. From the CGI model during the unveiling, it seems the Model 3 uses taller cells (and fewer modules). The gigafactory will mainly be building powerwall/powerpacks right now and them maybe shift to some S/X packs (using existing cells).

I don't think Tesla has the time to do a pack redesign for the S/X, so likely those will continue using Panasonic 18650 cells.

Then our opinions differ on that argument, because I don't think they will use different cell sizes for their cars, especially if the new size is obviously better. And where did you see that the new modules would be taller? The cells might be, but a module doesn't only consist of cells and if they change to 20700, just to give an example, the Volume increases by almost a third, but the cells only get 5mm higher. Thats a very minor change, when you keep in mind that the pack is already over 5" in hight.

 

[vandacca]

The new Model-3 packs probably won't be compatible, but I don't see why the cells within those packs couldn't be used in the existing Model-S/X packs.

Furthermore, while the battery costs will go down, I don't believe the price savings is going to be that substantial. The whole Model-3 is being re-engineered to be a more easily and cheaper vehicle to produce. Most of the savings is going to be in the latter area.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Then our opinions differ on that argument, because I don't think they will use different cell sizes for their cars, especially if the new size is obviously better. And where did you see that the new modules would be taller? The cells might be, but a module doesn't only consist of cells and if they change to 20700, just to give an example, the Volume increases by almost a third, but the cells only get 5mm higher. Thats a very minor change, when you keep in mind that the pack is already over 5" in hight.

A 5mm difference doesn't appear compatible with the current module structure (the cell caps are just barely recessed right now, and that difference will make them pop up) and the width difference will change the amount of gap between the cells (which will compromise safety or may require a different module footprint).

The powerwall/powerpacks still use the 18650 format, so I don't see a challenge maintaining a two cell formats at least for now. My speculation is that Tesla will consolidate the cell designs when they release the Gen 2 version of the Model S (at which point even the modules will be the same between the two).

 

[R.S]

Of course they will have to change the modules, but thats the only way to produce one single cell, for all applications. And if you look into the pack, there is easily 5mm of free space above the modules.

I don't think they will continue with the 18650s until they release the next Gen Model S, because then they will have to release a Gen 2 Model X, too. And when should that be? 2020, or even later? No, they will engineer the cells that way, that the cells will fit into the existing Model S and X pack, probably with different modules, but still.

But that wasn't the point, my point was there is too much evidence for a 100kWh pack and my main argument wasn't the changing cell factor, but the P100D mentioned in the software.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Of course they will have to change the modules, but thats the only way to produce one single cell, for all applications. And if you look into the pack, there is easily 5mm of free space above the modules.

I don't think they will continue with the 18650s until they release the next Gen Model S, because then they will have to release a Gen 2 Model X, too. And when should that be? 2020, or even later? No, they will engineer the cells that way, that the cells will fit into the existing Model S and X pack, probably with different modules, but still.

I just don't think they have enough engineering resources to deal with a module design change for the Model S/X and trying to fit that into the existing pack. It is trivial right now to just move their pack manufacturing to the gigafactory and use the 18650 format (which they are using for powerwall/powerpacks anyways). As for next gen Model X, I suspect Tesla will release 1-2 years after the next gen S (which I expect around 2020 if following the 7 year cycle previously mentioned). That was the original plan anyways for the X (they just got delayed with all the complexity).

But that wasn't the point, my point was there is too much evidence for a 100kWh pack and my main argument wasn't the changing cell factor, but the P100D mentioned in the software.

This point I agree with, but this is independent of the cell format.

 

[R.S]

So you say they have the engineering capacity to improve two different cells and modules, but not to just fit new modules into an existing pack, which would simplify any future cell development and give the X/S extreme volume benefits?

And Elon said that there will be an improved powerwall this summer and as far as I know, we can't really say if they already produce cells in the GF, or just putting them together for Power-Walls/Packs. We'll see...

Edit: The Reno Gazette said on March 24th 2016 that so far there are no cells produced at the GF, they just do pack assembly, but cell production will start this year. "Cell production, as well as the battery packs for the cars, are expected to begin this year" is what a Tesla spokesperson told them.

Here's our first look inside Tesla's Gigafactory

 

[stopcrazypp]

So you say they have the engineering capacity to improve two different cells and modules, but not to just fit new modules into an existing pack, which would simplify any future cell development and give the X/S extreme volume benefits?

The cell chemistry is being improved by Panasonic at the moment, not Tesla (small changes like 70kWh to 75kWh and 85kWh to 90kWh for example). What takes Tesla's engineering resources are changes to the module and pack design. I think Tesla's engineering resources will be drained between the Model 3 and Powerwall/powerpacks (plus all the trouble with Model X). So I don't anticipate a switch to the new cell format (and module format) for Model S/X until the next version. If they make such a change mid-cycle it'll just be an interim one and add another module variant to maintain. I don't really see it helping that much (compared to just making a complete generational split where they can make major changes to the entire pack form factor to optimize for the new cell format).

Keep in mind that the chemistry of the cells can be made in the same factory (in a large "jelly roll") and different cell form factors can come out of it.

And Elon said that there will be an improved powerwall this summer and as far as I know, we can't really say if they already produce cells in the GF, or just putting them together for Power-Walls/Packs. We'll see...

Edit: The Reno Gazette said on March 24th 2016 that so far there are no cells produced at the GF, they just do pack assembly, but cell production will start this year. "Cell production, as well as the battery packs for the cars, are expected to begin this year" is what a Tesla spokesperson told them.

Here's our first look inside Tesla's Gigafactory

As you found out, they are just putting together stationary packs right now. The cell production won't start until later this year. I remember reading that even when the gigafactory is fully operational, Tesla will still be keeping their existing supply contracts with Panasonic outside of the gigafactory, but I will have to dig the sources.

Edit, here it is:
"According to the agreement, Tesla will prepare, provide and manage the land, buildings and utilities. Panasonic will manufacture and supply cylindrical lithium-ion cells and invest in the associated equipment, machinery, and other manufacturing tools based on their mutual approval. A network of supplier partners is planned to produce the required precursor materials. Tesla will take the cells and other components to assemble battery modules and packs. To meet the projected demand for cells, Tesla will continue to purchase battery cells produced in Panasonic's factories in Japan."
Panasonic and Tesla Sign Agreement for the Gigafactory

 

[Phil Seastrand]

The cell chemistry is being improved by Panasonic at the moment, not Tesla (small changes like 70kWh to 75kWh and 85kWh to 90kWh for example).

My understanding is that Tesla is making the tweaks to the chemistry, not Panasonic. This is according to the representative at the factory tour as well as what I've read elsewhere.

 

[stopcrazypp]

My understanding is that Tesla is making the tweaks to the chemistry, not Panasonic. This is according to the representative at the factory tour as well as what I've read elsewhere.

The press release seems to indicate for the gigafactory, Panasonic will be responsible for everything on the cell side and Tesla on the module/pack side. It is likely Tesla has engineers working with Panasonic about the formula for the chemistry, but it seems at least for the cell development, Panasonic is doing most of the heavy lifting.

The module/packs, however are clearly Tesla's full responsibility, and my point was that it'll be a bigger drain on Tesla engineering resources to develop a special module redesign just for this interim period than to keep on going with 18650 and the same modules.