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When will 100+ KWh battery become available?
- Thread starter Rodolfo Paiz
- Start date
So do you think they will be stuck with 90kWh forever, or will they make a bigger jump past 100kWh? Seems very unlikely to include a P100D badge into your current software, if you aren't planing to use it.
TaoJones
Beyond Driven
Hrm? 5%-10%/year from last year... not including advances in cell technology beyond that. Seems we're in line for a 100kW battery tout suite.
There are 2 triggers for my upgrade decision: AP2.0, and a 100kW+ battery. For me that means a 50-mile range increase.
And since the current 271-mile battery isn't worth but 175 miles in challenging conditions, we are nowhere near "enough* in my mind. Not close. In fact, one could make a case for a 600-mile battery (software locked to 500 miles). Living between 20% and 80% as a practical case with such a battery provides 300 miles of real range and *that*, folks would *approach* being sufficient across all seasons and all terrain in the US. Maybe.
There are 2 triggers for my upgrade decision: AP2.0, and a 100kW+ battery. For me that means a 50-mile range increase.
And since the current 271-mile battery isn't worth but 175 miles in challenging conditions, we are nowhere near "enough* in my mind. Not close. In fact, one could make a case for a 600-mile battery (software locked to 500 miles). Living between 20% and 80% as a practical case with such a battery provides 300 miles of real range and *that*, folks would *approach* being sufficient across all seasons and all terrain in the US. Maybe.
Rashomon
Member
They'll have a 100kWh or larger pack by end of next year, maybe sooner. If the Gigafactory is tooling up to produce next-generation 20700s in bulk by next July for the M3, Panasonic is already making them in Japan, at least on a pilot line. Tesla is already testing them, and knows just what they'll do. If the cells are actually less expensive on an energy per dollar basis, they'll get incorporated in MS/MX packs sooner rather than later. They'll likely come from both Japan and the Gigafactory. I suspect that a lot of M3 technology (see the thread on the M3 forum on its unique inverter) will find its way onto the larger platform vehicles. As a lot of these parts will be both better and cheaper -- Tesla will incorporate them as soon as they can. Sometime in the next 6 to 18 months, Tesla will announce a number of improvements for the MS and the MX, and a larger pack will be one of them. The real question is how big the jump will be; I suspect we'll see more than 100kWh for the largest pack at this jump, as the 20700s will likely represent a significant step. The average may be 5 percent or a little more improvement in battery capacity per year, but the actual change is very lumpy -- it doesn't come in a nice smooth line.
TaoJones
Beyond Driven
I think it's possible the current 75KWh pack is the 3rd generation cells which will be going into the 100 KWh packs. Tesla is probably waiting for battery production at the GF to spool up before switching the larger packs to the new cells that allow 100 KWh packs.
Rashomon
Member
We've just gotten a big hint of the schedule. From the electrek.co article on the Gigafactory grand opening:
But the battery packs at the factory will feature a new architecture. Even though the battery cells themselves will be bigger than the ones currently used (18650 to 20700 [sic: 21700 according to Straubel]), the battery packs will be smaller thanks to better packaging and cooling.
At the Gigafactory event yesterday, Elon Musk said that the first vehicle battery packs will come out of the factory in about 6 months and will be used as development battery pack for the Model 3.
In 8 to 9 months, battery packs for the Model S and X will also rollout for validation and for production in the following months.
Tesla CTO JB Straubel said last year that the majority of Tesla’s development effort was devoted to this new battery architecture, which aims to have an important impact on cost and performance. Therefore, it’s likely to have a significant effect on the company’s battery lineup.
It's likely that by next summer we'll see the new generation 21700-based packs in MXs and MSs, as well as the first M3s as they trickle into production. I wouldn't be surprised to see a S120 and an X120 at the top of the range, though that may be overly optimistic.
TaoJones
Beyond Driven
Rashomon
Member
Assuming the new 21-70 cell comes in about 4.8 to 5.0 Ah, the new high-end S/X pack is likely to end up around 100 to 105 kWh, with somewhere around 5800 cells. Each cell should have around 40 percent more active material than the current 18650s, which are maybe 3.4 Ah. So a 5.0Ah 21-70 would likely require both a chemistry improvement as well as engineering/packaging improvements. Musk and Straubel are talking about cooling improvements, and I suspect we'll see a complete repackaging of the pack, with a design aimed at durability, rapid production and fast production cycle times. There's a lot of gluing and bonding in the current pack that might be minimized in the new one.
Really? Pretty sure the 75 cells are the same ones used in the 90 and the refreshed 60.
I'm pretty sure the 70's battery pack has the same cells as the 90. The two were introduced about the same time and the math works. Using the same number of cells as the first generation packs, the 2nd generation comes up with 69.6KWh and 91.99KWh.
It is possible the 75 KWh pack was created by adding some cells to the modules in the 70 pack. The 75 pack was introduced right about the same time the leak about the 100 KWh pack was came out. I ran the numbers and if the Ah of the 3rd gen batteries came up 3.9 Ah, this would work out to 77.5 KWh and 102.5 KWh pack. A 3.8 Ah cell would come out with a 75.6 KWh and 99.9 KWh pack using the same cell count as the 1st and 2nd generation packs.
Tesla has made it clear the new 60 and the 75 are the same physical pack.
I made a chart in this post:
Tesla Battery Generations
I haven't been able to confirm one way or the other. There is a lot of data about the original packs out there, but information on the 70, 90, and 75 packs is thin. If the original 70 pack did use the original cells, they must have done something like add two modules or make the smaller module larger.
@okashira has some insight on this here:
Tesla Model S 18650 Cell Test Data
I think he also did a 70 kWh tear down but I can't find the thread.
Tesla Model S 18650 Cell Test Data
I think he also did a 70 kWh tear down but I can't find the thread.
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
Same here. I canceled my X 60D order to wait for the “obvious thing” announcement. I prefer to take delivery in April, but I may push it back further because of the expected improvements discussed on this forum. It’d be great to have better timelines for the updates. I don’t want to be stuck with a classic X 4 months after delivery.
Super_Popular
Well-Known Member
Elon Musk did everything but confirm that Tesla Model 3 will be fully autonomous [Video]
Elon Musk gave a talk at the Code Conference yesterday (see video below) and when asked directly if the Model 3 will be autonomous, Musk looked like he was about to give a direct answer, but afer a few seconds of hesitation he said that there will be another big event “maybe toward the end of the year” during which he will talk in more details on the subject.
He then added that it will be “really big news” when he starts talking about it and that Tesla will do the “obvious thing”.
Elon Musk gave a talk at the Code Conference yesterday (see video below) and when asked directly if the Model 3 will be autonomous, Musk looked like he was about to give a direct answer, but afer a few seconds of hesitation he said that there will be another big event “maybe toward the end of the year” during which he will talk in more details on the subject.
He then added that it will be “really big news” when he starts talking about it and that Tesla will do the “obvious thing”.
The only tear down info I've found is an 85 Kwh tear down. I can't find any evidence anyone has torn down a pack later than 1st generation (original 60 and 85).
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