When will it be dumb to buy a new ICE ?

[lklundin]

It takes 5-6 hours to get to Chicago from Cincinnati due to insane I65 congestion.

Actually, with no traffic the comparison of the longer distance trip is even worse for the BEV, at least with today's batteries and charging technology.

On the Autobahn, one can in the best case sustain a speed of 200 km/h.

I have driven that in a P85+ and used about 0.4 kWh / km. In the best case charging scenario (speed wise) for the Tesla, I could imagine to repeatedly drive it from a SoC of 50% down to 0, and then recharge back to 50% in 20 minutes. So those approximately 40 kWh (charged at 120 kW) will get me 100 km, which will take 30 minutes to drive. So for every 30 minutes of driving, I have to spend 20 minutes charging.

Compare that to an Audi A8 TDI where that sustained speed will get me about 600 km, before I have to spend 10 minutes refueling (80 l) (+ paying + thinking about all my CO2 pollution).

OK, a sustained speed of 160km/h can be maintained more often, but I don't have numbers for that. But they would not be hugely different.

So ignoring the CO2-pollution, there are rational reasons for staying with diesel, especially in Germany.

 

[ElectricTundra]

I have driven across this country and have a bladder made of T304 stainless. The M3 is still not there yet as it means that realistically you will be hitting up a charger every 100-120 miles to be on the safe side. If driving in extreme heat or cold, those would be even shorter. 20-30 minutes every 90 minutes can really add up and be inconvenient. It takes 5-6 hours to get to Chicago from Cincinnati due to insane I65 congestion. That means that you have just added potentially 90 extra minutes to a one way trip and 180 extra minutes for the round trip.

I'm jealous of your bladder.

Every 100-120? Not really. A 20 - 40 mile buffer is sufficient unless you expect problems. So in a base Model 3 about every 175 - 200 miles will be more realistic. With a larger battery you'll obviously get farther between charges.

Cinci to Chicago is about 300 miles. If you leave with a full charge you'll stop once to charge for 15-20 minutes and then charge at your destination while you're doing whatever you're doing so 30-40 minutes total round trip. If destination charging isn't an option then you will have a third charge of about 30 minutes in Chicago.

 

[tdelta1000]

I think it will be dumb to buy an ICE when EVs have a ranges about 450 EPA miles.

 

[aesculus]

Many stops are also food stops so effectively cost nothing time wise. For most of any others that are over 10 minutes then we'll relax in a local coffee place. Including the coffee and other charging stops but not food stops it's been about 1 hour per 900 miles (our typical day of driving).

For those that have cup holders in their car, you can drink while you drive.

Prior to getting a Tesla I was one of those long trip fanatics that only stops for gas once on a 600 mile trip. Everyone has 5 minutes to get gas, pee and do whatever else they need. Eat out of the cooler on board. And across NV I can drive 80 mph, legally.

Those days are effectively over. That same 600 mile trip now needs to be done at 60 mph in order to conserve energy, both to minimize 5 supercharger stops and in one case, to actually make a leg. This adds about 4 hours to a 10 hour trip. That's a big deal. Now I only have to do this twice a year so I will put up with it.

But my weekly use still involves stopping at a supercharger during a 250 mile round trip. That adds about an hour and during that time I have no need for a snack or a break. In fact I just want to go home and sometimes it's 10 or 11 pm and I still have 2 hours to drive.

But again I am willing to do this. Most ICE users will not. The question posted by the OP implies when the rest of the world will want to switch from ICE to EV and if they have either of my two scenarios, it won't happen until those situations compare to the 5 minute ICE re-energize cycle.

 

[Topher]

The M3 is still not there yet as it means that realistically you will be hitting up a charger every 100-120 miles to be on the safe side

Well if you fill your ICE car when the tank reaches 1/2, you should be used to stopping very often.

Thank you kindly.

 

[HanSolo]

I'm jealous of your bladder.

Every 100-120? Not really. A 20 - 40 mile buffer is sufficient unless you expect problems. So every 175 - 200 miles will be more realistic.

Cinci to Chicago is about 300 miles. If you leave with a full charge you'll stop once to charge for 15-20 minutes and then charge at your destination while you're doing whatever you're doing so 30-40 minutes total round trip. If destination charging isn't an option then you will have a third charge of about 30 minutes in Chicago.

Because I have spent so much time on the roads, I have gotten to the point where I have been able to go 10 hours without a restroom stop. When I was driving through rural Canada to get to/from Alaska, it was because the outhouses were so gross along the way. Between Cincy and Chi-town, there are superchargers in Indianapolis and then in Lafayette. Traffic especially along I65 north of Indy gets horrific so yes I do anticipate lots of problems such as highway closing accidents. Remember that this region gets really hot in the summer and cold in the winter, so you are going to get nowhere near those 200+ miles. To achieve that margin of safety, it means a stop in Indy and then a stop in Lafeyette and then again in Chi-town for the return journey.

Before it got t-boned by a stop sign runner, I had one of the first Ford Fusions made and it made this round trip on a single tank of petrol.

 

[ElectricTundra]

But again I am willing to do this. Most ICE users will not. The question posted by the OP implies when the rest of the world will want to switch from ICE to EV and if they have either of my two scenarios, it won't happen until those situations compare to the 5 minute ICE re-energize cycle.

All depends on how often people have trips that will require extra charging time and how important that time is to them vs other benefits of ICE's and BEV's. What about other things like saving $1000 - $2000 per year in operating costs?

 

[HanSolo]

Well if you fill your ICE car when the tank reaches 1/2, you should be used to stopping very often.

Thank you kindly.

That is the beauty of ICE as there are literally fueling opportunities at nearly every highway exit with the exception of the more sparsely populated parts of the US.

Except when I am driving in those parts where fueling opportunities can be 50+ miles between(such as I found in North Dakota, Montana, western Maryland, and so on), I generally wait until I have less than 1/8th of a tank before stopping for fuel. With the increased fuel economy of many of the newest cars, you can also get a LOT of miles from each tank. That is the point as you have this flexibility with ICE cars while you do not with EV's. Then it becomes having to wait 30-60 minutes to charge or 5 minutes to fill it up at the pump and go.

 

[Topher]

That is the beauty of ICE as there are literally fueling opportunities at nearly every highway exit with the exception of the more sparsely populated parts of the US.

Which is why you are better off PLANNING when you will be refueling. What EVs have that ICE cars do not, is a GPS location system which shows where the refueling stations are, which ones you can get to on your current level, and so on. No more driving miles, searching around in the middle of the night looking for an open gas station, in some remote part of the country that you aren't familiar with, hoping to find one before you run out. No thanks, been there, done that.

Thank you kindly.

 

[ElectricTundra]

Between Cincy and Chi-town, there are superchargers in Indianapolis and then in Lafayette. Traffic especially along I65 north of Indy gets horrific so yes I do anticipate lots of problems such as highway closing accidents. Remember that this region gets really hot in the summer and cold in the winter, so you are going to get nowhere near those 200+ miles. To achieve that margin of safety, it means a stop in Indy and then a stop in Lafeyette and then again in Chi-town for the return journey.

Congestion has very little impact on range. The impact will be if you have to take a long detour. Cold and heat have much less impact than you think. You'll be fine doing 1 stop anytime above 20f. Below 20f you'd likely be doing a 2nd stop.

 

[MitchJi]

At this point it'd just be a wild guess so I'm going to say never. ICEs are cheap, and modern engineering has made powertrains much more reliable so it'd take a _lot_ of cost reduction to make EVs even close to the cost of a basic ICEV.

I expect to see explosive growth in PEV sales as the new PEVs cross key thresholds, and demand helps improve access to home charging.

It all hinges on battery pack costs. Battery pack prices are falling and ICE costs are going up due to emissions controls etc.

It's not going to be the very long until it costs Tesla less to build EV's than it costs other OEM's to build ICE's. By 2018-2019 at the latest. PHEV's are losers because they have the costs of the ICE plus the EV drive train. The i3 range extender for example, doubles the range, sells for 4K more than the model with only the 22 kWh pack.

An optional range-extending gas engine provides a total range of 150 miles and helps quell dead-battery anxiety.

That's equivalent to charging $180 per kWh. If BMW could sell batteries for at a profit for the same price they'd do it. EM and JB have stated that Tesla's pack costs are currently "about" $200 (hiding their low costs) per kWh. They have also stated that by 2017 the GF will reduce their prices by more than 30%. With better cells it's at least 40%. So $120 per kWh is a high price. So at Tesla's prices they will be able sell an EV with a 215 mile range like an M3 with a 55 kWh pack at $144 per kWh ($120 + 20% profit) which they can charge $8k for vs BMW is $180 x 44 kWh = $7.9 k which is roughly the same cost for a larger pack!

Then when you figure the cost of gas an maintenance it's a losing proposition. BMW's PHEV strategy is a bet on high battery costs which is going to be a losing bet within the next two years. When Tesla is producing the M3 at the latest. How many i3's has BMW sold or taken reservations for ?

 

[HanSolo]

Which is why you are better off PLANNING when you will be refueling. What EVs have that ICE cars do not, is a GPS location system which shows where the refueling stations are, which ones you can get to on your current level, and so on. No more driving miles, searching around in the middle of the night looking for an open gas station, in some remote part of the country that you aren't familiar with, hoping to find one before you run out. No thanks, been there, done that.

Thank you kindly.

I have typically purchased a new Ford every 3 years and the navigation system will pop up with a list of all nearby fueling stations when the computer predicts that you have 50 miles of range left. My current Toyota isn't as sophisticated, but it does list all services off of any given intersection. The point being that before the situation gets dire, you know exactly where the closest fueling stations are and you don't have to hunt around. I remember how I was travelling through North Dakota at roughly 4 in the morning when I ran low on fuel and it directed me to the closest station which was 30 miles away.

With the current locations of charging stations, you could end up in serious trouble if all you have is 50 miles of range left. That appears to be changing as not just Tesla, but other companies are putting up charging stations. We still havn't gotten to the point yet when you do not have to actively plan when going on longer trips with EV's. That will be the key before the public will really get in on it.

 

[Topher]

We still havn't gotten to the point yet when you do not have to actively plan when going on longer trips with EV's.

Better start getting used to it. It might be that you will have to do it in ICE cars before you no longer need to do it EVs.

Thank you kindly.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

My Audi can tell me where gas stations are and how to get to them.

It's 2016. As advanced as EVs are, GPS isn't an exclusive technology.

 

[chuhouse2003]

By the time all charging stations accept cash or credit card, as many charging stations as gas stations, charge as fast as you refill your tank, then it will be dumb to buy an ICE.

 

[wallet.dat]

I suspect that I'll still be on the search for that perfect '97-01 Acura Integra Type-R long after I take delivery of my Mod3. However, I consider myself a connoisseur, far removed from a typical consumer, and thus my perspective is slightly different

 

[Jayc]

I think it will be dumb to buy an ICE only when chargepoints become as common as gas stations AND when 80% recharge times approach 10 mins or less. Until then, most households will require a conventional car to cover non-routine long journeys so if you have one EV, the other will have to be an ICE or hybrid.

 

[vjason]

One thing to keep in mind is that as great as the Model 3 appears to be (keeping in mind I lined up at 4AM on reveal day to get one), a 35K base car is not the car for the masses. And odds are that even getting one of those base spec models will take quite some time, probably 6 months at least after the car starts to ship.

Many in this thread are talking about battery costs going down, which is wonderful for Tesla stockholders as the company will make even more profit. That doesn't make the car cheaper (anyone heard Elon say that stage 4 of his plan is to cut the model 3 price?).

A 35K car isn't going to bring about the end of BEVs, not when you can get a 15K ICE car that gets 30-35 MPG. Argue all you want about ICE maintenance, you could drive the tires off that ICE car for 5 years (probably 7-8) and probably need nothing more than oil changes, tires, and maybe a set of brake pads. And newer brake pads can last quite awhile, and you could skimp on oil changes if you plan to dump the car after 5 years. And I'll bet that 15K ICE uses much cheaper tires.

A 20K difference in car price over 5 years is $333/month. Now I'm not saying a 15K ICE in any way compares to a 35K model 3, but it does get you from one place to another. And the fuel for it is available everywhere, and it fills up fast. And most people aren't buying $333 worth of gas a month, and making things even more troubling is that many in the US can't charge where they live (primarily talking about those in apartments, but applies to some with houses too).

As to what will happen (in the US) at least due to the 2025 CAFE standards? That depends on what is cheaper and/or convenient enough, a BEV or a hybrid. Batteries should be cheap enough at that point to have a cheap but decent BEV, but will there be enough charging capacity in hotels/rest areas/apartment complexes/public streets. For a little more than that 15K ICE you can get a Prius c hybrid, which nearly meets those standards today, and again can be filled up on nearly every street corner.

There are fringe examples, but they are only fringe so they don't count as much. In my case this is my boat, and the truck I use to tow the boat. Neither will be BEVs for the foreseeable future, or should I say make sense as BEVs (aka, I paid 3K for the truck, and drive it less than 750 miles a year towing the boat/going to Home Depot).

At the end of the day (in the US):

• BEVs need to be cheaper, without tax credits, and offer a good range. I'm thinking under 20K and 200 miles range at least.
• BEVs need readily available cheap highway and destination charging, cheaper than gas (when measured by mileage).

Until they can do those things BEVs simply won't be affordable or practical to the masses. I realize that both of these will happen, but the question is when. I'm thinking 8-10 years in the US, which oddly enough would coincide with those 2025 CAFE standards.

 

[ElectricTundra]

The average new car sale in the US is $34,300. I'd guess the bulk are $25k - $45k with somewhat few under or over that range? The Model 3 and competitors with incentives and annual operating cost savings can be effectively $20k. Even without incentives it's $25k-$30k when you consider operating costs? So we're basically 2 to 5 years out?

The premise of the article, I think, was the importance of looking a few years out towards trade-in value so that you don't find yourself with a really low value car at trade-in. What's the current value of a $5k loss 4 years out? Is a $30k car that looses $15k a better deal than a $30k car that looses $20k?

 

[Garlan Garner]

I think it would be dumb to buy another ICE after the M3 comes out. Of course - that'll be sometime in the next 10 years. LOL.

Until then - no problem. Lets just choke through it. LOL