When will it be dumb to buy a new ICE ?

[ElectricTundra]

Consider the large luxury segment that we seem to have pretty good numbers for.

In 2013 I believe Tesla accounted for 5% so there were about 95,000 ICE and 5,000 BEV sold in 2013. Presumably in 2018 there will be 100,000 people willing to buy these cars at about half original retail. However, in 2014 and 2015 we saw the appetite for ICE cars decline with only 75,000 purchasing them in 2015. In 2018 that will likely be below 70,000 and possibly as low as 50,000. Let's assume 60,000.

If purchasers of used cars follow the same trend then in 2018 you'll have 60,000 people wanting a 4 year old ICE and 40,000 wanting a 4 year old BEV. But you'll have 95,000 used ICE cars with only those 60,000 buyers. There's some elasticity, but how much? How far will prices on those used ICE have to decline to attract buyers?

And this will be in an environment where the Model 3 is shipping and there are probably about as many Model 3's on the road as S's today as well as many more S's, X's, and other BEV's along with a bunch more charging stations (how many were there just 2 years ago?).

 

[NC-3]

I think it will be dumb to buy an ICE when EVs have a ranges about 450 EPA miles.

Agreed!

Waiting for my M3. At 450 miles it removes almost all concerns regarding long trips.

 

[tdelta1000]

Agreed!

Waiting for my M3. At 450 miles it removes almost all concerns regarding long trips.

My thought on the 450 EPA Mile of range was based on a max battery pack weight threshold that TM would feel comfortable putting in a "car".

 

[geoffreak]

My thought on the 450 EPA Mile of range was based on a max battery pack weight threshold that TM would feel comfortable putting in a "car".

Based on current density, yes. Since Elon has said batteries improve around 5% a year in density, you can expect a battery with 50% more density in about 8-9 years. This will be shortly after EVs will reach price parity, so the number of reasons to buy an ICE will dwindle fast in the next decade.

 

[Joules Verne]

Weird thing is, Mad Max was all ICE vehicles.

 

[ElectricTundra]

Based on current density, yes. Since Elon has said batteries improve around 5% a year in density, you can expect a battery with 50% more density in about 8-9 years. This will be shortly after EVs will reach price parity, so the number of reasons to buy an ICE will dwindle fast in the next decade.

Agree. Though the article you linked to (that was quoting an article from Bloomberg that was quoting a report from BNEF) estimates price parity with ICE by 2022. So a $35,000 Model 3 delivered in 2017, even without tax credits, won't be at price parity with a BMW 3 series or Audi A4?

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Why do you think that this is an ICE only attribute. Electric motors are about as reliable as machines come. How many moving parts in an ICE? How many in a BEV?

Thank you kindly.

Relative cost is the issue. ICEVs are cheap, but potentially have higher fuel and maintenance costs.
But with cheap gasoline, improved efficiency and increased ICEV drivetrain reliability, those potential advantages for BEVs are significantly diminished, and what's left to narrow the TCO gap?

To me, in the USA, it's only price parity or legislation that could eliminate the ICEV. I don't foresee either happening.

 

[geoffreak]

Agree. Though the article you linked to (that was quoting an article from Bloomberg that was quoting a report from BNEF) estimates price parity with ICE by 2022. So a $35,000 Model 3 delivered in 2017, even without tax credits, won't be at price parity with a BMW 3 series or Audi A4?

I think these estimates are for other EVs on the market, not with Tesla.

 

[ElectricTundra]

I think these estimates are for other EVs on the market, not with Tesla.

True, but how quickly will others begin to match? Will they wait 5 years until after the Model 3 has sold over a million units and displaced over a million units of their sales and Tesla are producing over a half million units per year?

 

[Topher]

Relative cost is the issue. ICEVs are cheap, but potentially have higher fuel and maintenance costs.
But with cheap gasoline, improved efficiency and increased ICEV drivetrain reliability, those potential advantages for BEVs are significantly diminished, and what's left to narrow the TCO gap?

To me, in the USA, it's only price parity or legislation that could eliminate the ICEV. I don't foresee either happening.

I was responding to your claim of better reliability. Improved efficiency meaning 40% as opposed to EV's 90%? Drivetrain reliability means what, 1/2 as reliable as an EV? Cheap gas isn't as cheap as solar PV, (about 50% more) and solar is predicted to get cheaper.

But that aside, you seriously believe gas prices are going to stay cheap forever? Wow. They have gone up 25% in the last 3 months.

Thank you kindly.

 

[Topher]

True, but how quickly will others begin to match?

Good question. If they start building a battery factory to support their own 100k/year EVs. It looks like the figure to beat is 20 months. Tesla has been planning to produce this car at this volume for a long time. Have any other car makers had similar vision? Being a big company with lots of cash flow has its advantages, but also its disadvantages. It is probably an "all in" bet for every car maker exec.

Thank you kindly.

 

[geoffreak]

True, but how quickly will others begin to match? Will they wait 5 years until after the Model 3 has sold over a million units and displaced over a million units of their sales and Tesla are producing over a half million units per year?

Honestly at this point I think they still can't see how it can be done cheaply. The first decent EVs from the existing players will probably be sold at a loss until they can figure it out. Once it becomes clear that EVs are the future (which will likely be after 2022), they will all be rushing to build EVs at a good price point where they can make money and at a rate that will beat their competitors to market.

 

[AudubonB]

Some good answers and some good discussion in the prior 72 posts, as well as some inanities -those coming primarily from respondents who have little time behind the wheel of an EV.

For me, the answer to the thread's question is two-fold, but those answers have a fair chance of occurring more or less simultaneously, as follows.

There will be no more reason or incentive for me to purchase another ICE vehicle once:

1. TM has, as per Mr Musk's tweet of ten or so days back, developed the SpC network as far as (and of course encompassing) Alaska; and

2. TM or another manufacturer has on the market a compelling EV pickup truck.

Of course an SpC trail to Alaska is important to me. Driving between home and the lesser-48 in the Tesla is, right now, an exercise in frustration and waiting at yet another RV park or welding shop for close on half a day, for thousands of miles. It combines the words "Tesla" and "Ludicrous" in a way that Tesla Motors does not much want.
MUCH MORE SO, for most North Americans even just the concept of driving to and from Alaska represents The Ultimate Road Trip and as such, there is both a symbolic and a practical significance of creating such a build-out of the Superchargers. "You even can drive to Alaska" will be, some day, the ultimate demonstration for Tesla to show to the world that it is now in the EV Era - that the ICE Age is over. A succinct way of putting this is that for Tesla, Alaska is, truly, the Last Frontier.

As far as an EV pickup truck - there is a fairly active and vibrant thread in this forum regarding same. I have been mostly absent as participant in the thread as our own efforts on this from have been and will likely remain non-public. Those who are interested in the subject should discover that thread - its topics not only are on what an EV truck should look like but how such can participate in TM's overall development.

Timeline for either/both? Throw out a number and see if it sticks. I like 2020....because we can see how that was in hindsight.

 

[AudubonB]

...Can't edit away the grammar gaffes...strange....

 

[ElectricTundra]

It combines the words "Tesla" and "Ludicrous" in a way that Tesla Motors does not much want.

The imagery while reading this was wonderful and very welcomed on a cloudy day.