Serious question. My car should be worth 300k by now.
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When will my Tesla be a robotaxi and generate 3k/day?
- Thread starter viper2ko
- Start date
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
LOL - ask this guy https://twitter.com/elonmusk
Cheburashka
Active Member
I take the robotaxi thing seriously. Maybe you will make $400 per day with level 4 autonomy in summer 2022, only working in certain areas of certain cities.
For a real level 5 autonomy car, it will probably be new hardware and sensors and radar and cameras, so none of our cars will do it. Maybe 2023.
For a real level 5 autonomy car, it will probably be new hardware and sensors and radar and cameras, so none of our cars will do it. Maybe 2023.
Tesla can't even do normal dynamic cruise control which all other manufacturers have mastered 10 years ago. Simple things like -- staying in the lane, keeping speed when possible, and stopping to avoid cars and objects in front of it -- it can't do these things. I wish I could use my $10,000 cruise control! FSD would be nice, but the car can't even crawl using autopilot without slamming on the brakes and doing inappropriate actions every time I use it. I have been just leaving it off lately. Too much trouble.
Uhmm I highly highly highly doubt we’ll have level 4 or 5 anytime soon. Even if the regulations allowed for it (which they won’t anytime soon) with Tesla’s track record of meeting deadlines we won’t have it for another 6 years . You’re probably better off just becoming an Uber driver or something
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
AMPd
Well-Known Member
You’re joking right? Not only is your ambitious date ridiculous but if you think you’ll make 400 dollars per day then you’re definitely in for a surprise.
Once robotaxis become a thing it’s going to be a race to the bottom to compete with human driven ubers and the loads of other robotaxis.
But hey at least by then your Tesla will have probably tripled in value ... lol
AMPd
Well-Known Member
I did uber for a few rides and realized I did not like having strangers in my car. Plus someone rated me 1 Star and left a comment saying I was playing offensive music... Notorious BIG is offensive??? Some people just have no class.
I think it is a fair game to figure what a robotaxi would generate.
I would think $30 an hour day one (minus energy costs and depreciation of course). It would drop to $10 an hour over a few years as competition arrives.
So maybe $100 a day. Depreciation and energy costs of $30 a day?
A Bolt like car will make more sense with lower depreciation costs.
I think a Bolt like robotaxi might be worth $100k. Generates $30k a year, depreciates $10k a year (averaged over 5 years) with a $5k energy bill and $5k maintenance and cleaning. The App costs will be 10% so that is another $3k. Insurance $3k. So profit about $10k a year - justifying the $100k price.
Will a Tesla garner a premium to ride in - sure maybe 20% so that would be $36k in income. Costs would be a bit higher but perhaps profit would come in at $13k. That might justify a $130k price.
So there you have it, a new Tesla robotaxi is worth $130k. Chance of current cars being robotaxis - 0 - 10%. Being generous and using 10% - you justify the FSD price nearly exactly. If you think 10% is the right number, then you are a very optimistic soul.
The real premium will be for purpose built robotaxis - luxurious accommodations, large size for groups/luggage, easy egress/ingress, wheelchair accessible. ie - not the Model S.
I would think $30 an hour day one (minus energy costs and depreciation of course). It would drop to $10 an hour over a few years as competition arrives.
So maybe $100 a day. Depreciation and energy costs of $30 a day?
A Bolt like car will make more sense with lower depreciation costs.
I think a Bolt like robotaxi might be worth $100k. Generates $30k a year, depreciates $10k a year (averaged over 5 years) with a $5k energy bill and $5k maintenance and cleaning. The App costs will be 10% so that is another $3k. Insurance $3k. So profit about $10k a year - justifying the $100k price.
Will a Tesla garner a premium to ride in - sure maybe 20% so that would be $36k in income. Costs would be a bit higher but perhaps profit would come in at $13k. That might justify a $130k price.
So there you have it, a new Tesla robotaxi is worth $130k. Chance of current cars being robotaxis - 0 - 10%. Being generous and using 10% - you justify the FSD price nearly exactly. If you think 10% is the right number, then you are a very optimistic soul.
The real premium will be for purpose built robotaxis - luxurious accommodations, large size for groups/luggage, easy egress/ingress, wheelchair accessible. ie - not the Model S.
BigNick
Infamous Fat Sweaty Guy
COS Blue
Member
That would break even after ten years. Do you think robotaxis last ten years? I don’t think so. If you depreciate 10k a year, car would need to last 10 years (of course it could be a taxi first 5 years and then 5 years as a personal car).
Edit: or is it break even after 5 years as depreciation does not affect cash flow..So after 5 years and 500 000 miles robo-taxi has paid itself...
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AMPd
Well-Known Member
And then you still have 500k miles left on the million mile battery!
Also why do you say the car will depreciate? Havent you heard what Elon said? These cars will APPRECIATE in value!
CoastalCruiser
Member
I drive Uber as a retirement job (jazz music seems to pacify people the best) and just hoping the version of the Tesla Network where riders can hail a human driven Tesla will be here before I expire. That's why I ordered the 7 seat Y. But not a word about even that... unless I missed the press release (https://twitter.com/elonmusk).
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
I agree with this. If folks can make $400/day then we all will quit our jobs and just buy Tesla robotaxi; there will be so many robotaxi on the roads. Will lead to no one using it ; bc we all own robotaxi . I mean even if robotaxi cost $130k to buy: at all time low interest : people can just borrow and buy it and make $400/day more than enough to cover. Then this leads to wealthier people or companies buying not just 1 robotaxi but let’s say 1000 or 10,000... anyways market forces will soon catch up and we will all be driving our own robotaxi and very few will make money ... I am just talking about Tesla.. then if you add Waymo, MobilEye, Cruise, and a slew of others, then even fewer will make money. It is indeed a race to the bottom. This is what Uber and Lyft did .. they can’t just charge exuberant amount of money for car ride; they just have to provide a good enough experience at a cheaper price than regular taxi. Uber/Lyft led the dramatic drop in price on taxi medallions.
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