When will S&P500 inclusion be announced?

[Buckminster]

The million dollar question. Would appreciate any insight just in case I decide to time it with a short term call.

Once announced, funds have a week to make their purchases. Some have said this could be just a couple of weeks, others months. Seems to be 99% likely to happen in next few months but I believe weeks is more likely.

 

[Oveeus]

While the inclusion isn't guaranteed, it's usually anywhere between 2-7wks after the earning call.

 

[Buckminster]

While the inclusion isn't guaranteed, it's usually anywhere between 2-7wks after the earning call.

So 11th Sep which is why people have been going for 18th Sep calls. May as well hold on for battery day. Then again might as well hold on for P&D or even ER...
They are all so expensive...

 

[Buckminster]

Some thoughts on S&P Inclusion timing.

Historically, Tesla releases its 10-Qs on the 29th or 30th of the month of the earnings call, whether that call occurs just a day or two before or a week before. That means we're likely to see the 10-Q on Tues of next week, +/- a day.

The S&P Index Committee meets once a month. Hopefully, they're not meeting on Aug 1 or 2, and so they will have had time for their accountants to dissect the 10-Q and bless it as reasonable.

Let's assume it takes a day or two to write and schedule the announcement. As discussed earlier, there's about 5-6 days (maybe as many as 8) between announcement and official inclusion. Historically, the Committee seems to avoid Mondays and Fridays as official inclusion dates.

So, spitballing:
1) Earliest: They meet Aug 6, prepare an announcement to be released on Aug 7 and inclusion date is Aug 14.
2) Latest: They meet whenever in August and don't get a majority one way or the other and so postpone it until September.
3) Scariest: They meet in August and decide to not add Tesla. I've not seen an "we're not including XXX company" announcement from S&P, so I think this means we go months and months until people give up or TSLA drops and they decide to add it during, say, Jan 2021.

Sept 2nd is Labor Day, markets are closed. I think that would factor into their timing as they probably don't want to have an extended weekend between announcement and official inclusion. There's also a rebalancing date in Septemeber and they probably don't want to add Tesla just before or just after that rebalancing.

 

[generalenthu]

Within a week of 10q coming out. I'd think before mid August

 

[SpaceCash]

With the 10Q now out (earlier than usual?) is the general feeling that they will announce next week?

 

[dw4ngg]

Within a week of 10q coming out. I'd think before mid August

Basis for being within 1 wk of 10Q?

 

[Buckminster]

Basis for being within 1 wk of 10Q?

 

[vikings123]

Basis for being within 1 wk of 10Q?

Just based on recent additions to S&P. Look up DXCM as a recent example. Filed 10Q on April 28th, S&P announcement came out on May 6th.

 

[smorgasbord]

With the 10Q now out (earlier than usual?) is the general feeling that they will announce next week?

One day early does not make a significant difference.

It's in the hands of the S&P 500 Committee now. Their schedule is private; their internal debate is private. We don't know if they're meeting on Aug 1 or Aug 31.

If they want to keep TSLA out, they may go through the 10Q with a magnifying glass (maybe borrowed from TSLAQ?) looking for something to disqualify it. But, they don't need anything specific to keep it out. They can just vote to not include it and then not say anything - I've never seen a "not being included" announcement. So, we won't know until they add TSLA or until they add some other company and don't mention TSLA.

 

[engle]

 

[Buckminster]

September 5th would be average:

 

[Buckminster]

S&P Quarterly rebalance meeting is scheduled for Sept 18, 2020.

Source: https://www.nasdaq.net/PublicPages/assets/MyMID/Trade_Calendar_2020.pdf

OK, so some speculation here. As I posted, S&P Sept rebalance is Sept 18. Seems to me they'd either add TSLA to the S&P 500 in August or wait until the rebalance. No point in adding a $300 Billion stock to the index, which will cause funds to reallocate and then just a week or two later have everybody rebalance again. That would be additional trading expenses for all the fund managers that are literally S&P's customers. So, IMHO, not going to happen.

So, Sept 18th it is, and since that is quickly followed up by Battery Day seems like the mother of all TSLA short/liquidity squeezes going to happen.

Unless S&P decides to postpone adding TSLA for another few months.

That's the date on which the rebalancing is scheduled to occur after the market close. The public announcement of any rebalancing should occur about a week before, although that can vary. Of course the meeting occurs before the announcement.

Be advised that the 3rd Wednesday of October is the 21st.

Dates

• 21st - 31st Aug - Split
• 2nd? Sep - announce inclusion
• 9th? Sep - Inclusion
• 11th? Sep - S&P rebalance announcement
• 18th Sep - S&P rebalance
• 22nd Sep - Battery day
• 2nd? Oct - P&D
• 21st? Oct - ER

Inclusion will be after the split. Reasoning being that they will want the liquidity plus they are running out of time to do it earlier. Only 5 market days to go.
I'm sticking with these dates. I think a second rebalance is unavoidable post inclusion.

The question is, when to buy short term calls. Wish I had pulled the trigger already...

 

[Buckminster]

• 21st - 31st Aug - Split
• 2nd? Sep - Announce inclusion
• 9th? Sep - Inclusion
• 11th? Sep - S&P rebalance announcement
• 18th Sep - S&P rebalance
• 22nd Sep - Battery day
• 2nd? Oct - P&D
• 21st? Oct - ER
• 23rd? Oct - FSD re-write released to limited public (Elon stated 6-10 weeks, assuming 10 here)

6 days to the start of the split!