When will Tesla answer all of our questions about the X - Official launch speculation

[simplejack]

So, Tesla confirmed there is no "event" to attend and since everyone was speculating that the X would be launched when the Founders received theirs, when do you think we will get some official communication from Tesla about the X?

I'm still hoping that they will release all the details on Sept 29th, but that hope is based on what I want them to do, not on any actual information they have provided.

Will there actually be a launch, or do you think they will just update the website incrementally? I know this sounds ludicrous, but with the way Tesla handles communication I'm starting to believe this is a possibility.

My official prediction is once they get the supplier issues figured out, we will get an official launch. I expect this will be sometime in the November timeframe.

 

[GreenT]

So, Tesla confirmed there is no "event" to attend SNIP

Where'd you read this?

 

[Lyon]

Where'd you read this?

I don't know where OP read it but I've had email correspondence with Tesla on this topic and that's the word I was given as well.

 

[mrdoubleb]

I think we are witnessing the weirdest product launch in the history of... well, everything.
Here is a company that has been teasing about this amazing product for 3 years now, finally is about to start delivering it, but has absolutely no communication on it. Remember, we started finding out about Sigs configuring via TMC screenshots, there was no tweet, no press event and apparently even though they will delivery it to all Founders on the same day, they don't even make that a public event. Also, we have customers who have waited for years, with pre orders and 40 grand committed, configuring on very little information and CGI screenshots not even seeing the front of the final production car!

 

[CarlK]

I think we are witnessing the weirdest product launch in the history of... well, everything.
Here is a company that has been teasing about this amazing product for 3 years now, finally is about to start delivering it, but has absolutely no communication on it. Remember, we started finding out about Sigs configuring via TMC screenshots, there was no tweet, no press event and apparently even though they will delivery it to all Founders on the same day, they don't even make that a public event. Also, we have customers who have waited for years, with pre orders and 40 grand committed, configuring on very little information and CGI screenshots not even seeing the front of the final production car!

This is Tesla. It has done many weirdest things before like power a car without using fossil fuel, put an iPad in a car to do all controls, update your car without physically access it, sell cars without a dealership, never do an advertisement,... So what's wrong if it does not do new product introduction the same way as Toyota or BMW does? Nothing's wrong with it because Tesla can. But more seriously Toyota or BMW could not pay millions of dollars to get the publicity from generated for the suspense.

BTW are you a sig reservation holder and what's your reservation number?

 

[SBenson]

I think we are witnessing the weirdest product launch in the history of... well, everything.
Here is a company that has been teasing about this amazing product for 3 years now, finally is about to start delivering it, but has absolutely no communication on it. Remember, we started finding out about Sigs configuring via TMC screenshots, there was no tweet, no press event and apparently even though they will delivery it to all Founders on the same day, they don't even make that a public event. Also, we have customers who have waited for years, with pre orders and 40 grand committed, configuring on very little information and CGI screenshots not even seeing the front of the final production car!

I get the feeling this entire fiasco is due to rushing to meet said target dates. My impression is that the car is not ready (or the company is not ready to deliver the car) - at least the way they intended to.

Seems like the Sep 29 deliveries are just a desperate attempt to say that they started deliveries as promised (deliveries to begin late q3).

Last I know from reading these threads, Bonnie still doesn't know when she will get her car. Nor anyone seems to know when we will know all about the car.

My pet theory (entirely speculative) is that some supplier is trying to take Tesla for a ride, essentially blackmailing/exploiting Tesla's circumstances. Tesla is trying not to budge.

 

[Merrill]

Yes, there is no launch or reveal event because Tesla is not ready to launch the Model X.

 

[mrdoubleb]

This is Tesla. It has done many weirdest things before like power a car without using fossil fuel, put an iPad in a car to do all controls, update your car without physically access it, sell cars without a dealership, never do an advertisement,... So what's wrong if it does not do new product introduction the same way as Toyota or BMW does? Nothing's wrong with it because Tesla can. But more seriously Toyota or BMW could not pay millions of dollars to get the publicity from generated for the suspense.

BTW are you a sig reservation holder and what's your reservation number?

oh no my friend, I am about 100k short of being a sig reservation holder. :tongue: But even if i wasn't, i don't like buying without trying... I would want to sit in the car first, drive it around a bit before pushing the button on configuration.

Back on topic, i just don't feel like this falls under the "we do things differently" category. They made pure EVs, full touchscreen control, supercharging, OTA updates because they said: it is crazy we have the technology to do this, it is to the benefit of the consumer/planet, but no one does it. I don't see any "mission" or upside in this secrecy.

 

[Lyon]

One significant problem with Tesla launching a car like anyone else is that they don't just produce vehicles for dealer stock and then send them out. They need to build cars to customer specs from the beginning so they're going to need to get those specs. Even if the first cars were marketing cars, they would still need to be working on the next orders even as the first cars were being completed. Model X is going to be different than Model S; I think they're going to be able to ramp production faster this time.

The end result is this cluster-**** of a launch.

 

[simplejack]

This is Tesla. It has done many weirdest things before like power a car without using fossil fuel, put an iPad in a car to do all controls, update your car without physically access it, sell cars without a dealership, never do an advertisement,... So what's wrong if it does not do new product introduction the same way as Toyota or BMW does? Nothing's wrong with it because Tesla can. But more seriously Toyota or BMW could not pay millions of dollars to get the publicity from generated for the suspense.

BTW are you a sig reservation holder and what's your reservation number?

If Tesla had Apple's cash pile and distribution network, your comparison would be valid. But they don't. They are raising money through debt and selling stock and are burning massive amounts of cash at the same time trying to build out a distribution network that can handle 5-10X volume in the next 3-5 years. Sure, they are building revolutionary products, but key to building them is SELLING THEM and right now Tesla needs sales alot more than most on TMC think they do. They have a 3-4 month backlog for a 100k SUV that they expect to sell 55-60k a year. This isn't a segment that lacks quality competition, unless BEV is the only criteria you use.

Not releasing any information about a product costing $100k+ that you expect to line up 25-30k more customers for in 2016 is pretty absurd IMO.

 

[Matias]

Yes, there is no launch or reveal event because Tesla is not ready to launch the Model X.

I believe this is the case. Car is not ready for prime time.

 

[Svenssons]

Sure, they are building revolutionary products, but key to building them is SELLING THEM and right now Tesla needs sales alot more than most on TMC think they do.

You can't sell cars you do not have. The key to building the cars is not selling them, this might be true to older car companies with lots of factories and expensive over head cost. For Tesla the key to selling them is to be able to build them.

 

[Super_Popular]

I hope they do an event, it was pretty cool seeing people get their cars. Don't we all want to see Bonnie on youtube getting her X?...ins't she #2?

 

[MrBoylan]

I hope they do an event, it was pretty cool seeing people get their cars. Don't we all want to see Bonnie on youtube getting her X?...ins't she #2?

Only Founders on September 29th. Bonnie is a Signature. I don't believe she has a confirmed delivery date yet, though I could be mistaken. And I'm not sure if any of the Founders are active forum members.

 

[Merrill]

I think all of us want an event as well as Tesla, why would you miss out on a hugh marketing opportunity. They just are not ready to be able to deliver cars in any volume, this is the only thing that makes sense as to why they are not doing a reveal and delivery event. I think the 29th is being done so they can say they delivered cars as promised. Personally I can wait to see the real car, but cannot stand all the speculation that is going to continue until the above happens.

 

[aesculus]

I am starting to cool to the fact that the car is not ready either. I sensed this might happen and so I waited a long time to put my reservation in (~15,500).

For decades in the computer business we always joked that you should never consider a product until it was on it's 3rd major release: Windows 3, iPhone 3, ...

With the move to more of a beta delivery model (I think that's what the first release will be - sorry sigs :redface and continuous improvements, its hard now to figure out when version 3 really happens. But it will be clear when it does.

I have the luxury of waiting this out since I think I still have 2+ years of life in my current ICE SUV left.

 

[Super_Popular]

Only Founders on September 29th. Bonnie is a Signature. I don't believe she has a confirmed delivery date yet, though I could be mistaken. And I'm not sure if any of the Founders are active forum members.

Gotcha

 

[simplejack]

You can't sell cars you do not have. The key to building the cars is not selling them, this might be true to older car companies with lots of factories and expensive over head cost. For Tesla the key to selling them is to be able to build them.

Tesla is expecting to sell between 80-90k vehicles next year. Conservatively that is about 45k Xs they need to deliver in 2016. The current reservation list will roughly cover 20k of those, and the rest need to be net new SALES. Selling an additional 25K Model Xs in the next 12 months will not be as simple as many on here like to believe.

 

[SBenson]

Tesla is expecting to sell between 80-90k vehicles next year. Conservatively that is about 45k Xs they need to deliver in 2016. The current reservation list will roughly cover 20k of those, and the rest need to be net new SALES. Selling an additional 25K Model Xs in the next 12 months will not be as simple as many on here like to believe.

That's what analysts are expecting. Tesla hasn't released guidance for next year. Did Elon or someone else say 80-90k anywhere? Just asking because I missed it if it happened.

 

[dirkhh]

I am starting to cool to the fact that the car is not ready either. I sensed this might happen and so I waited a long time to put my reservation in (~15,500).

For decades in the computer business we always joked that you should never consider a product until it was on it's 3rd major release: Windows 3, iPhone 3, ...

With the move to more of a beta delivery model (I think that's what the first release will be - sorry sigs :redface and continuous improvements, its hard now to figure out when version 3 really happens. But it will be clear when it does.

I have the luxury of waiting this out since I think I still have 2+ years of life in my current ICE SUV left.

Well, there are the people who bought a P85D in late fall 2014 with next gen seats and autopilot. They got their seats six months after they got the car. And they still have no full autopilot.

Here's my cynical take on the Model X "launch":
It seems to me that Founders cars are the early alphas.
In a few months we'll get the first beta cars (called "Signature").
At some point next year they will start shipping V1.0 of this car to the first few thousand P reservation holders.
Then mid next year there will be several significant HW changes, different battery technology with faster supercharging, new HW required to get /actual/ working AP... and V2.0 will be out. Of course without any actual announcement, without an organized cut-off / communication, and without a way to retrofit. Early customers who complain will be labeled as whiners and be told to shut up because they are driving the most amazing car in the world...

Sound familiar to anyone?