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When will Tesla answer all of our questions about the X - Official launch speculation

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I think all of us want an event as well as Tesla, why would you miss out on a huge marketing opportunity. They just are not ready to be able to deliver cars in any volume, this is the only thing that makes sense as to why they are not doing a reveal and delivery event. I think the 29th is being done so they can say they delivered cars as promised. Personally I can wait to see the real car, but cannot stand all the speculation that is going to continue until the above happens.

At some point Tesla has to decide the Model-X is ready for production (not necessarily "finished") and begin shipping it. In trying to step into Elon's shoes for a moment, I would think that while they do ship the first Model-X in a couple of weeks, they are far from reaching the finish line. I'm sure they have a lot of issues that still need to be worked out, along with new ones they find along the way (probably mainly with the production line).

Therefore, there is a lot of work still ahead and having a celebratory event may not feel right at this time. Of course, from an end-user perspective, it's seems like a big deal and it feels like we should be celebrating.
 
That's what analysts are expecting. Tesla hasn't released guidance for next year. Did Elon or someone else say 80-90k anywhere? Just asking because I missed it if it happened.

The 80-90k was my calculation based on the Q2 shareholder letter they sent that said in the Looking ahead to next year section - "steady state demand and production of 1600-1800 per week". This comes after the discussion of Q4 ramp and the impact of lower deliveries in 2015.

http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...8A224CE8/Tesla_Q2_2015_Shareholder_Letter.pdf
 
One significant problem with Tesla launching a car like anyone else is that they don't just produce vehicles for dealer stock and then send them out. They need to build cars to customer specs from the beginning so they're going to need to get those specs. Even if the first cars were marketing cars, they would still need to be working on the next orders even as the first cars were being completed. Model X is going to be different than Model S; I think they're going to be able to ramp production faster this time.

The end result is this cluster-**** of a launch.

That is true. The same as people have to get used to things Tesla do because they don't have model year designation and will release new features whenever they are ready. There is no problem, and actually benefits of this (you get upgrades sooner without having to wait till next year), long as everyone understands what they expect. People who do not like the idea of buying a car without first test drive really don't need to put an early reservation.

oh no my friend, I am about 100k short of being a sig reservation holder. :tongue: But even if i wasn't, i don't like buying without trying... I would want to sit in the car first, drive it around a bit before pushing the button on configuration.

Back on topic, i just don't feel like this falls under the "we do things differently" category. They made pure EVs, full touchscreen control, supercharging, OTA updates because they said: it is crazy we have the technology to do this, it is to the benefit of the consumer/planet, but no one does it. I don't see any "mission" or upside in this secrecy.

See my answer above. People who want to test drive before purchase absolutely can have a chance to do it. They just have to wait until after the unveil and when test vehicle is available. Isn't that what one needs to do when buying any cars?
 
Never heard of anything like this. Not once. More seriously, it worked the 1st and 2nd times. Why not go for a third?
[emoji3]. Thanks for the chuckle, and well said. Before the Roadster and Model S launch there was a lot of complaining and criticism. Then the cars go into production and win accolades and sell well (in fact Model S sales have far exceeded Elon's expectations). I predict the same scenario for the Model X.
 
Well, there are the people who bought a P85D in late fall 2014 with next gen seats and autopilot. They got their seats six months after they got the car. And they still have no full autopilot.

Here's my cynical take on the Model X "launch":
It seems to me that Founders cars are the early alphas.
In a few months we'll get the first beta cars (called "Signature").
At some point next year they will start shipping V1.0 of this car to the first few thousand P reservation holders.
Then mid next year there will be several significant HW changes, different battery technology with faster supercharging, new HW required to get /actual/ working AP... and V2.0 will be out. Of course without any actual announcement, without an organized cut-off / communication, and without a way to retrofit. Early customers who complain will be labeled as whiners and be told to shut up because they are driving the most amazing car in the world...

Sound familiar to anyone?

Can't +rep you again so soon. Stop making sense damnit.
 
That's what analysts are expecting. Tesla hasn't released guidance for next year. Did Elon or someone else say 80-90k anywhere? Just asking because I missed it if it happened.

The last shareholder letter stated that they expect to deliver between 1600 and 1800 cars per week next year. In the conference call they clarified this to be the average rate over the year with some weeks going up to possibly 2000 to compensate for things like holiday season and yearly factory shutdown for retooling and upgrades.
 
I get the feeling this entire fiasco is due to rushing to meet said target dates. My impression is that the car is not ready (or the company is not ready to deliver the car) - at least the way they intended to.

Seems like the Sep 29 deliveries are just a desperate attempt to say that they started deliveries as promised (deliveries to begin late q3).

Last I know from reading these threads, Bonnie still doesn't know when she will get her car. Nor anyone seems to know when we will know all about the car.

My pet theory (entirely speculative) is that some supplier is trying to take Tesla for a ride, essentially blackmailing/exploiting Tesla's circumstances. Tesla is trying not to budge.

I unfortunately am coming to the same conclusion (or should I say, best guess), except for your last statement. I doubt a supplier is blackmailing/exploiting them. I think it's likely the rumor is true that supply constraints on the second row are likely to blame. And perhaps there was a more complicated design that folds, bends, shrinks, beams up to the enterprise that Tesla has now decided to forgo, at least for now. This is the only reason I can imagine why Tesla wouldn't do a formal announcement, show off the car, give us all the specs, and start collecting additional deposits. They need to be able to say "we started shipping on 9/29". It's unfortunate that Tesla has found themselves in this position.

... but I remain hopeful that Tesla pulls a rabbit out of their proverbial hat.
 
I get the feeling this entire fiasco is due to rushing to meet said target dates. My impression is that the car is not ready (or the company is not ready to deliver the car) - at least the way they intended to.

Seems like the Sep 29 deliveries are just a desperate attempt to say that they started deliveries as promised (deliveries to begin late q3).

Last I know from reading these threads, Bonnie still doesn't know when she will get her car. Nor anyone seems to know when we will know all about the car.

My pet theory (entirely speculative) is that some supplier is trying to take Tesla for a ride, essentially blackmailing/exploiting Tesla's circumstances. Tesla is trying not to budge.

Hmm, decent theory. Would suck if that's the case.

Generally, though, my hunch is also that everything is not as expected simply due to a rush and challenges getting the X out in Q3... technically, if not in decent numbers.
 
Well, there are the people who bought a P85D in late fall 2014 with next gen seats and autopilot. They got their seats six months after they got the car. And they still have no full autopilot.

Here's my cynical take on the Model X "launch":
It seems to me that Founders cars are the early alphas.
In a few months we'll get the first beta cars (called "Signature").
At some point next year they will start shipping V1.0 of this car to the first few thousand P reservation holders.
Then mid next year there will be several significant HW changes, different battery technology with faster supercharging, new HW required to get /actual/ working AP... and V2.0 will be out. Of course without any actual announcement, without an organized cut-off / communication, and without a way to retrofit. Early customers who complain will be labeled as whiners and be told to shut up because they are driving the most amazing car in the world...

Sound familiar to anyone?

If I bought a 2016 Model (any other Brand than Tesla) I know it would be a upgraded 2017 Model before summer of 2016.
My 2016 model will get No upgrades, no new functions, and only software fixes (DVD or USB drive at the dealer) if it was really bad problems.
With Tesla software upgrades is still happening for old cars (2013 model. :)

I know upgraded batteries, seats, software, hardware will arrive, next year to he year after....
I rather drive a model X while waiting than my old car, and when the time is right see if I consider a uppgrade.
I still have a really old computer from 2011 and a IPhone 4S.
Before I changed every two years.
 
Early customers who complain will be labeled as whiners and be told to shut up because they are driving the most amazing car in the world...

Sound familiar to anyone?

This is the recurring theme on this board. I remember the thread about the towing capacity. Before the details were known, someone from Tesla claimed that the X will be capable of towing 10,000 pounds. When some expressed disappointment that in reality, it could only tow 5000 pounds, half the members called the other half stupid for believing something like the X could ever tow 10,000 pounds. Shame on them for believing what an employee from Tesla said.

:smile:
 
This is the recurring theme on this board. I remember the thread about the towing capacity. Before the details were known, someone from Tesla claimed that the X will be capable of towing 10,000 pounds. When some expressed disappointment that in reality, it could only tow 5000 pounds, half the members called the other half stupid for believing something like the X could ever tow 10,000 pounds. Shame on them for believing what an employee from Tesla said.

:smile:

If I'm not mistaken, the Tesla employee said it would have Class 3 towing capability, which I think it does. Many of us found info or articles referencing info that Class 3 towing capability = nearly 10,000 pounds, but it is apparently much more nuanced than that, and the X does indeed have what is categorized as Class 3 towing capability.

This is a little outside my area of expertise, and my memory on this may be foggy, but wanted to chime in to add a bit more context and a correction to your comment.

Edit: seems my memory was foggy and he did say "close to" 10,000 lbs: Chen says; “This vehicle will have Class III towing capability. That means over 5,000 pounds, actually close to 10,000 pounds of towing capability.”

Tesla Model X Towing Capacity “Close to 10,000 Poundsâ€￾ - Gas 2
 
Only Founders on September 29th. Bonnie is a Signature. I don't believe she has a confirmed delivery date yet, though I could be mistaken. And I'm not sure if any of the Founders are active forum members.
I'm missing the plot here. If members here are lining up for, VIN 2 etc. , then what numbers do Founders get?
Tesla not doing a launch party? I am in disbelief.