In which quarter do you expect Tesla to finally reach a sustainable (as opposed to "burst rate," which we now know means not sustainable for three months) weekly Model 3 production rate?
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When Will Tesla Sustainably Produce 5,000 Model 3's Per Week?
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Words of HABIT
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I hit the most popular answer. Do I win a prize?
Reciprocity
Active Member
I'm probably I'm the minority but I think they will hit the Q2 5k/w but not the Q1 2.5k/w. Everyone is projecting a steady increase and not what Elon keeps reiterating, which is an S curve. At some point in the next 4 months the rate will go straight up. They seem to be stuck in semi automated mode, but once they hit full auto mode, it should accelerate quickly to 5k. Something must not working and not allowing them to get there yet. The system is designed to go at a certain rate and it will get there at some point.
I have a friend of a friend that works at Tesla, yesterday they said that they had plenty of batteries and they were shooting for 3,000 this week.
I have no idea if that is just some kind of push or something sustainable.
I have no idea if that is just some kind of push or something sustainable.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Well you do need to stress the system at some point to find new issues, so it makes sense. Current slow down could have been prep to get enough packs and parts queued up for a stress test. 500/d for 6 days.. good test. I'm watching nhsta regs because if Tesla is going to start to crank up production they will need more vins. They have less then 4k now based on the highest vins in the wild and the highest registered with the nhsta. Unless they registered a bunch no one had found.
I have a friend of a friend of a friend that visits the factory often. He said that.... never mind..
suwaneedad
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When I toured the factory in August, the overwhelming smell was...cardboard. There were boxes of components stacked to the ceiling, everything from dashboards to floor mats, in cardboard boxes. It surprised me. But I don't hang out in auto assembly factories. I'm amazed the giant logistics symphony ever sounds good, frankly. Touring the factory improved my appreciation for the difficulty car makers have in getting all those pieces and parts into something that is then reliable for a decade or two to the end customer. Really impressive.
Buddyroe
Active Member
I think a better questions is when will they hit a sustainable 1000 per week. I have seen no real evidence that Tesla has produced even 1000 in any week of M3 production.
Hopefully, any day now they will blow past 1000 and hit a number closer to 2500. But, we're in the 8th month of production and so far Tesla has built about 6 to 8k cars. Not very inspiring. I'm afraid we may see this linger on another year or so. Hopefully I am wrong, but either way, I hope Tesla is learning a ton about manufacturing, because the Y will the make or break vehicle in my opinion (not the M3 as many believe - not company can make a sustained living on a sedan these days).
Hopefully, any day now they will blow past 1000 and hit a number closer to 2500. But, we're in the 8th month of production and so far Tesla has built about 6 to 8k cars. Not very inspiring. I'm afraid we may see this linger on another year or so. Hopefully I am wrong, but either way, I hope Tesla is learning a ton about manufacturing, because the Y will the make or break vehicle in my opinion (not the M3 as many believe - not company can make a sustained living on a sedan these days).
If anyone cares, the term for that packaging is dunnage. Once you go reusable, you have the added logistics of having enough and getting it back to the supplier... Cardboard is so much easier, but hits the recycling chain. Some things like full wire harnesses work better in large plastic totes that have sides that fold down as the tote is emptied. Small electronic modules work great in boxes with internal dividers.
We Set Out to Crack Tesla's Biggest Mystery: How Many Model 3s It's Making
Maybe the tracker is simply showing the low production rate because of the lack of VIN numbers spotted every week....
But to be honest.... If Tesla is not reaching 2000cars/week THIS month (yes, within 2 - 3 weeks) then there is something wrong! The latest conference call, they seemed super confident to reach this rate this month
My heart hopes for reaching 5000 m3 cars/week end of this year. My mind tells me at least 6 months later. Q2 '19 maybe?
Total output of model S/X/3 of 5000 cars/week will be reached before summer this year
Maybe the tracker is simply showing the low production rate because of the lack of VIN numbers spotted every week....
But to be honest.... If Tesla is not reaching 2000cars/week THIS month (yes, within 2 - 3 weeks) then there is something wrong! The latest conference call, they seemed super confident to reach this rate this month
My heart hopes for reaching 5000 m3 cars/week end of this year. My mind tells me at least 6 months later. Q2 '19 maybe?
Total output of model S/X/3 of 5000 cars/week will be reached before summer this year
Update: Didn't come close (but couldn't get a count), said they had an 8 hour breakdown on the line?
I did not get the impression that they were "super confident" in the conference call about reaching 2000 cars/week in March. Here is a quote from the shareholder letter (emphasis mine):
I think that as they ramp they will continue to find new issues at nearly every stage. Ramp will continue to be bumpy and slow down at some points, when something breaks or a new problem is identified. I think they will probably be somewhere near 5,000 by the end of Q3 2018 (3 months behind current plan), but they may remain just under 5,000 (4,000 or 4,500/week) for a while, so I voted for Q4 2018.
All in all, I think that Tesla is taking on a hugely ambitious goal with this Model 3 ramp, but they are also incredibly driven to make it work, because the company's success depends on it. Nothing new for Elon, and so far he has always found a way to get the "impossible" done. I'm cautiously optimistic on 5,000/week by the end of the year, but I don't think anyone, including any Tesla employee, really knows how long it will take. Definitely exciting (and nerve-wracking) to watch!
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