When will the 'Big Bangs' happen?

[Sunlight]

I imagine that the progress of EVs will go thru a few stages. Maybe these will happen in Big Bang jumps. When will these happen and what will they be?

Some thoughts:- clearly when battery tech improves enough to make EVs more cost-effective than ICEs.

Range and charge time - although I think this is lower on the list. Already most MS owners have no trouble apparently.

When fuel stations start to close due to dropping business and it becomes a pain to refill - can't make gas at home! Electricity always available........

Banning of any form of ICE (incl hybrids) in city centres when pollution becomes a big issue. Some Chinese cities are near this and London is talking of plans along these lines to be phased in.

What do you think will be the cross-over situation - the day after which the choice will so clearly be an EV for anyone's next purchase?

 

[Raffy.Roma]

Banning of any form of ICE (incl hybrids) in city centres when pollution becomes a big issue. Some Chinese cities are near this and London is talking of plans along these lines to be phased in.

I like this. Hope it will happen soon.

 

[James Anders]

$100 per kWh batteries

 

[Reykjavik]

I don't think there will be any big bangs. We won't know the moment that the total cost of ownership drops below ICE cars, we don't know future gas prices. I expect gas prices to get more expensive more quickly than most would think, so I'll view an EV as an economic win early, others will think that gas prices will rise steadily, others will think gas prices will flatten out or even drop.

Fuel stations won't close until EVs are heavily dominant, and it will happen one area at a time, places with a lot of EVs will see them close sooner than places stuck in the ICE age.

We are also dealing with cultural perception, and changes in perception take time to build momentum.

I think what we will see continuing acceleration of adoption, with jumps up and drops down, but nothing that makes a huge difference to the overall trend.

 

[Rockster]

I'm not sure I agree that the ev movement will progress without big bangs. The great book "Tipping Point" by Malcolm Gladwell talks about this very topic (though not specific to EV's, of course). In doing so, Gladwell discusses how seemingly insignificant events can end up being a big bang.