When will the Model 3 Reveal II happen?

[ikjadoon]

That is about my guess as well.

I do not expect that Tesla will release any more Model 3 info in 2016.

This pre-order, though, is earlier than any other Tesla pre-order and with far larger numbers. I think they will have to "update" reservation holders every once in a while, maybe every 3 months.

People will get antsy over 18 months; we have nearly 400,000 who've put down $1000. And I'm talking about normal people getting antsy, not just this TMC crowd, haha.

Remember: Chevy will release 3 iterations of the Bolt by the time Tesla reaches max production rate for the Model 3: the 2016 Bolt, the 2017 Bolt, and the 2018 Bolt.

 

[arjay]

Signature Model X configurations started on Sep 1, 2015 - that was 25 days before the official launch (2015-09-25). So there were some details missing in the configuration page - for example, you can't see the front of the car in those pages, and there was no mention of the biodefense air filters, or the auto presenting powered front doors etc. Those details were only added to the configuration pages after the official launch.

So the timeline for Model X:
2015-09-01 - Signature Configuration started
2015-09-25 - Model X official launch
2015-11-23 - Production Configuration started

I have a feeling that we just change the above dates to 2017, and it would be close, though we don't have signatures for Model 3.

Wouldn't we have to see a phase 2 reveal before we can decide what our individual configurations want to be? I'm thinking say:
Nov 1, 2017 First delivery
Sept 15, 2017 Production begins
Aug 1, 2017 Launch
June 1, 2017 configuration process begins
April 1 (again), 2017 Phase 2 reveal so we have a couple of months to decide on options and costs
Damn, I was hoping my schedule would drive the phase 2 reveal into 2016. Well, hopefully EM will drop a few crumbs while we wait.

 

[StraightDave]

Tesla will have to do something early next year or more and more people will drop their reservations. Tesla doesn't have a solid track record of producing on time and if Musk punts the Model 3 then it will be the end of Tesla.

Best case, first 100,000 cars in 2018. No way people are going to wait three to four years for a car, it's simply too damn long.

 

[S'toon]

Tesla will have to do something early next year or more and more people will drop their reservations. Tesla doesn't have a solid track record of producing on time and if Musk punts the Model 3 then it will be the end of Tesla.

Best case, first 100,000 cars in 2018. No way people are going to wait three to four years for a car, it's simply too damn long.

Stop Assuming Tesla's Model 3 Will Be Late -- The Motley Fool

Given how far down I am in line, and where I live, I fully expect to wait 3 years to get a car. Gives me more time to save up to get more options.

 

[jeewee3000]

Tesla will have to do something early next year or more and more people will drop their reservations. Tesla doesn't have a solid track record of producing on time and if Musk punts the Model 3 then it will be the end of Tesla.

I disagree. A delay in the Model 3 production would be annoying, and people would complain a bit, but the current reservation holders are pretty aware of how Tesla operates. I doubt even 5% of the current reservation holders would drop their reservation if they knew the car would arrive a full year later.

Look at it this way: why did reservation holders reserve a Model 3? Because they want to be among one of the first to own and drive this futuristic car. Not because they have to have a car by date X or Y, that doesn't make sense. The one thing reservation holders didn't get is a clear release date, so that's not part of the deal. But people don't care (that much that they'd cancel).

Only cancellations I can imagine is people who desperately need their 1000$ back.

The end of Tesla will only be near the moment they are making more cars then there is demand for. That day is very far off.

 

[jkk_]

Given how far down I am in line, and where I live, I fully expect to wait 3 years to get a car. Gives me more time to save up to get more options.

Same story here, nothing to add.

 

[stages]

There's another way to consider when "Reveal II" will take place: when Tesla needs to go to the market for more equity. $1,000 per car won't come close to the money they need to build the production capacity the market expects.

 

[HanSolo]

I disagree. A delay in the Model 3 production would be annoying, and people would complain a bit, but the current reservation holders are pretty aware of how Tesla operates. I doubt even 5% of the current reservation holders would drop their reservation if they knew the car would arrive a full year later.

Look at it this way: why did reservation holders reserve a Model 3? Because they want to be among one of the first to own and drive this futuristic car. Not because they have to have a car by date X or Y, that doesn't make sense. The one thing reservation holders didn't get is a clear release date, so that's not part of the deal. But people don't care (that much that they'd cancel).

Only cancellations I can imagine is people who desperately need their 1000$ back.

The end of Tesla will only be near the moment they are making more cars then there is demand for. That day is very far off.

Nonsense. If Tesla reaches that day, that will be the day they take a page out of the books of nearly every other car manufacturer and start offering rebates. End of the year clearance sale!

I could see myself asking for the $1000 back depending on circumstances. The Bolt and Volt are both looking more and more attractive. The Bolt especially because I like hatchbacks and wagon like vehicles.

 

[TaoJones]

I'll play:

2019 - ground broken for factories in Europe, China as well as for the 2nd gigafactory
2018 Q3-Q4 - ramp to 2000 M3/week (100,000 cars/year)
2018 Q1-Q2 - ramp to 1,000 M3/week. First deliveries to non-employee customers by end of Q1.
2017 December - 1st cars delivered to employees
2017 October - 2nd reveal event, with Design Studio open that evening.

 

[eisbock]

The last paragraph in the Welcome to Tesla email says "Over the coming months we'll have more exciting updates to share with you about the model 3. Stay tuned!"

Maybe I'm reading too much in to this but I'm HOPING this suggests we'll have more major details before the end of the year, 6-8 months or so.

It's possible that this means we'll be getting table scraps until the big reveal. Little teasers and casual feature reveals via social media every few months? Just to keep up interest and media buzz.

 

[eisbock]

Remember: Chevy will release 3 iterations of the Bolt by the time Tesla reaches max production rate for the Model 3: the 2016 Bolt, the 2017 Bolt, and the 2018 Bolt.

That's not how it works. The Bolt released at the end of this year will be the 2017 Bolt.

The 2018 Bolt will come out when Tesla first starts the 3 releases (assuming they're on time).

 

[ikjadoon]

That's not how it works. The Bolt released at the end of this year will be the 2017 Bolt.

The 2018 Bolt will come out when Tesla first starts the 3 releases (assuming they're on time).

Err, yes, they release a year earlier--I forgot. So, then, the 2017 Bolt this year, the 2018 Bolt next year, and by the time production maxes (around 2018), the 2019 Bolt will be released.

So, still 3 iterations of the Bolt will be on the road by the time the Model 3 hits max production rate (by the first deliveries of the Model 3, just 2 iterations).

 

[MP3Mike]

Err, yes, they release a year earlier--I forgot. So, then, the 2017 Bolt this year, the 2018 Bolt next year, and by the time production maxes (around 2018), the 2019 Bolt will be released.

So, still 3 iterations of the Bolt will be on the road by the time the Model 3 hits max production rate (by the first deliveries of the Model 3, just 2 iterations).

That may be true, but I suspect that before July, 2018 there will be more Model 3s on the road than there are 2017 and 2018 BOLTs in existence. And at that point Tesla will be on revision ~14 of the Model 3. (Remember that Tesla makes improvements every week on the Model S/X, they don't wait for model years to make changes.) Sure they likely won't be major changes like GM does, but they all add up.

And who knows how many firmware updates and Autopilot revisions will have been released for the Model 3, how many OTA updates do you think GM will release for the Bolt?

 

[TaoJones]

That's a fair point. At best GM produces 30,000 nuts and Bolts per model year. That puts them at 60,000 max by September 2018 before what they consider 2019 nuts and Bolts emerge.

Meanwhile, even with a slow ramp, it would seem reasonable for Tesla to exceed GM's max rate of 30,000/year (2500/mo) in oh, I dunno, early to mid-2018 without breaking a sweat? We'll see - a lot of this juxtaposes Tesla's history versus the (I suspect) directive to start producing the M3 ASAP. Will be fun to watch, in any case.

I'm leaning toward configuring mine with *not* every option just to delay its production a bit - will be a delicate dance as a) I still want the full tax credit, and b) it appears that we'll only get one deferral - can't remember the updated verbiage in that regard at the moment. Oh, and c) my GRV agreement expires at the end of Q1 2018. Heh. No pressure.

 

[Bounou]

Not soon enough lol

I subscribed to 3 podcasts and 3 RSS feeds since I ordered this thing, not sure how I will survive the 2 year wait!

 

[UltralightBeam]

Not soon enough lol

I subscribed to 3 podcasts and 3 RSS feeds since I ordered this thing, not sure how I will survive the 2 year wait!

Agreed! Which 3 podcasts did you subscribe too? I did just one: Ride the Lightning and thought it was pretty good. Do you find they all have about the same commentary?

So I just do that one podcasts and catch random videos on YouTube.... I seriously can't wait!

 

[Bounou]

Agreed! Which 3 podcasts did you subscribe too? I did just one: Ride the Lightning and thought it was pretty good. Do you find they all have about the same commentary?

So I just do that one podcasts and catch random videos on YouTube.... I seriously can't wait!

There is a new podcast called "the Tesla show" and also "Talking Tesla".

For my money ride the lightning is the best one, the host is in love with the subject matter lol, if I could I would buy him a model S right now lol.

They all cover the same news really but I love listening to podcasts so I always double up, might drop one at some point depending on what else I am listening too.

 

[jonnyg]

Not soon enough lol

I subscribed to 3 podcasts and 3 RSS feeds since I ordered this thing, not sure how I will survive the 2 year wait!

Seriously, it's only been 1 month since the reveal. It's going to be a LONG 2 years (or more)!

 

[BluestarE3]

Not soon enough lol

I subscribed to 3 podcasts and 3 RSS feeds since I ordered this thing, not sure how I will survive the 2 year wait!

See here: Thoughts From an Old Timer

 

[flamingoezz]

I disagree.

1) Many people need a few years to be out of lease or done paying their current car. This gives people time to sort out their vehicle arrangements to expire around expected delivery.

2) I don't consider this waiting 3-4 years for the car since NOBODY has the car yet. If people were driving finalized versions of the car and I couldn't get one for 3 or more years, I might share the sentiment. Realistically, most are waiting 1 or 2 years from the first car hitting the streets to get theirs, which will be tough -- but they do say not to buy a first year on a new model, so those waiting a while (myself included) can take some solace in the fact that kinks should be worked out when ours arrive

Right now, the value for the car is there -- the looks, features, technology. Personally, the wait isn't a concern for me at all. The only factors in my decision now are the look of the car (if tesla slaps a mustache on this thing, it'll be a big turnoff for me) and if the value remains. There are a couple years for BMW, Volvo and others to catch up. If they can release a car with similar features/tech in 2019/2020 and the value is better due to the absence of Tesla's Federal credit and the inclusion for these brands that are newer to electric cars, that 'could' make me shift to another car, but otherwise I'm in it for the long haul.

Best case, first 100,000 cars in 2018. No way people are going to wait three to four years for a car, it's simply too damn long.