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When will the Model Y be unveiled (poll)?

Discussion in 'Model Y' started by Daniel_R, Oct 26, 2017.

?

When will the Model Y be unveiled?

  1. 2017

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. 2018

    61 vote(s)
    59.8%
  3. 2019

    34 vote(s)
    33.3%
  4. 2020, or later

    7 vote(s)
    6.9%
  1. Daniel_R

    Daniel_R Member

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    Perhaps time to for an updated poll.

    I guessing spring of 2018. Tesla should be out of Model 3 production hell by then.
     
  2. Buook

    Buook Member

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    I think they're going to sit on the 3 for a while before showing off anything new. Lets be honest, the large majority of owners won't even have their 3s by spring 2018
     
  3. bambam4171

    bambam4171 Member

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    #3 bambam4171, Nov 26, 2017
    Last edited: Nov 26, 2017
    There is also the question of building yet another bunch of factories. With the Model Y if I understand correctly the Gigafactory will not be able to supply the needed cells plus of course where would they build it? Not in Freemont, that is for sure as Freemont is bursting at the seams when Model 3 is in full swing. So they first need to get some money (from 3) then build another gigafactory then a factory for the model y. Lets not forget they also have to sort out Semi and Roadster production in the meantime. Too many balls in the air is a dangerous game, but one that Elon seems to be rather good at.
     
    • Like x 1
  4. BerTX

    BerTX Supporting Member

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    The ability to build the car is not really related to unveiling it, is it? They couldn't build any of the other vehicles when they were unveiled.
     
  5. bambam4171

    bambam4171 Member

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    Well kind of. You would not unveil a car thats 5 years off, right?
     
  6. purplewalt

    purplewalt Active Member

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    Agreed completely: unveiling a new vehicle does not entail having current facilities to manufacture the vehicle.

    However, "A Reveal" Event in an of itself performs three big functions:

    ** It is a controlled and scripted Event which introduces the new vehicle(s) to the Press, Investor Groups and Advocates/current owners. It creates an Official 'Buzz' both before, and certainly after.
    ** Current owners are motivated and rewarded through Referrals to attend such Reveal Events. Model S, X and 3 Owners are the best sales force Tesla could ever conceive.
    ** Oh, and Reveal Events are great ways to take Deposits for Reservations on the new vehicles -- a little wine and hospitality typically generates a lot of Ca$h. Maybe even combine it with another Line waiting Event in the morning at Current Galleries, and have the Reveal later in the day at Hawthorne or the GigaFactory.

    Back to OP's question: I think a LOT of Model 3 'Production Hell' Woes will need to be overcome and nearly fully ramped up Production in place for the BASE mileage Model 3 (the $35,000 Version) before such an event is even considered.
    The current promise on the table is the 400,000+ Reservations for Model 3.
    Lots of cars to be made, sold and that money put in the bank for the next project.

    So, I think the Model Y Reveal is tightly aligned to sometime after the $35,000 Model 3 is in fairly wide production and distribution.
     
    • Like x 2
  7. Ulmo

    Ulmo Active Member

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    #7 Ulmo, Nov 26, 2017
    Last edited: Nov 26, 2017
    My assumption is they want at least one plausibly cashflow-positive quarter under their belt before they go into more announcements; they don't have to announce it before it goes to the configurator. After all, they could just post a letter on Tesla.Com News that says "Look at http://tesla.com/modely and order today!" and that's all the notice we ever get, with it already in delivery, say a month after All Wheel Drive Model 3 has been shipping. I think Tesla should develop more car models in stealth mode while it's busy with ramp ups; it would give it a less constant vaporware status.

    In a reveal, Tesla takes on all the costs of advertising.

    In a stealth announcement, the media does the advertising for Tesla free of charge, and a lot more excitement is generated, at least the first time.

    Tesla doesn't have that many more excited news stories to release; people are already getting bored of the Tesla story, and the news isn't paying as much attention any more. Tesla shouldn't keep trying to pretend it is the cat's meow; it needs to get real work done, so anything that looks like that will be beneficial. Next time they release a new product, it would help if they already have 100,000 units delivered, manufacturing already up to speed and bugs worked out, configurator already online, and just put up a news bit and a slot on the front page of the web site, and then one complete announcement.

    The urgency for Model 3 was real. We understand why they had to work the angles. Now, that's over. They need to grow up at this point and do things strong.

    Having said all that, I don't think they learned their lesson; I think they'll announce 6 months before shipping just like always, so that would be about 6 months before June 2019, or about November 2018.
     
  8. tlo

    tlo Member

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    The Model 3 took just 16 months from unveil to first deliveries. My prediction for Model Y is an even tighter schedule - 6 to 9 months from unveil to deliveries. The reason is that there is a real risk of osbourning Model 3 sales if the unveil is done too soon.

    Remember that the Model Y is the top priority after Model 3. The design is likely already complete ahead of the Semi and Roadster.
     
    • Like x 1
  9. dipper

    dipper Member

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    I would say.... Summer 2018.

    1. Distract customers for delays of the M3.
    2. Get some customers to move their deposits to the Y, to make the waiting list look better.
    3. More interest free loan from Y deposits.
     
    • Like x 1
  10. Johann Koeber

    Johann Koeber Active Member

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    2017 is too early. (just did major announcements; GF 3-5 are next, just 5 weeks left)

    2019 is too late. (Elon does not like to get bored (pun intended))

    So obviously it will be 2018.
     
    • Funny x 2
  11. tanker5

    tanker5 Member

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    I expect Model Y and the Tesla Pickup to both be unveiled around the same time the AWD 3 is introduced. Most likely summer of '18.
     
  12. Olds442

    Olds442 Member

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    I agree summer of '18 is the best timing, especially if the m3 line is kicking good numbers.
     
  13. jandkw

    jandkw Member

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    Cary, NC
    I own the Model S and put in the deposit on the M3 when they announced hoping I can switch the deposit to Model Y. Tesla said I cannot transfer the deposit to MY so I asked for the refund. I agree the Y design should be very close to completion and after following Tesla for 5 years, I think they will announce the Y earlier than expected, I say summer of 2018 once they figure out where to manufacture 500K+ units.
     
  14. Kenz

    Kenz Member

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    They will not unveil the Model Y until the Model 3 is in volume production and delivery.
    Maybe by 4th quarter 2018 they will have production in high volume.
     
    • Like x 1

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