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Discussion in 'Future Cars' started by Daniel_R, May 1, 2016.
Please vote and explain why below.
Shouldn't there be an option for "after 2018"?
I thought it wasn't needed. Is that you guess?
Well, if anyone thinks it will be after 2018, they won't vote at all and your results will be skewed towards only those who think 2018 or earlier.
I havn't the slightest idea where Tesla is at for the next model. But, they have their hands full trying to get production going of the S,X and 3. Another model may stretch the limit and like many companies will have over extended itself right into oblivion
I voted 2017.
Tesla has been working along designing and developing the Model Y, and there were even rumors earlier this year that the prototype would be introduced at the same time as the Model 3. Assuming Model Y is built on the same platform as the Model 3, and assuming Tesla resists the urge to go wild with too many new features, it should be straightforward to finalize whatever tweaks are needed for the design and to build very polished prototypes by the end of 2016/early 2017.
I expect Tesla will want to start producing the Y by late 2018/early 2019, and well before that will need to get a sense of the demand to decide how much new production capacity and other infrastructure to build based on the number of reservations. Given how much demand there is for the Model 3, I think they'll worry more about production planning than people switching from the Model 3 to the Model Y. They could wait until Model 3 production is up and running at full tilt (mid-2018ish), but I doubt they will wait that long.
I too have heard rumors that Y is a fair ways along, and that they had been thinking of revealing it this year. However, plans may be changing.
In the past, they have revealed cars early to get orders to use the downpayments (most of them; they can't from my state, for example) as operating cash, and to show the market there is demand so they can get a better TSLA valuation and loans and such, and to show suppliers there is demand so they will be taken seriously.
The main way to poo-poo Tesla in the past has been to say there is no demand, which made it seriously hard for them to raise money and sign deals with suppliers. Showing more cars has always made it look like they'd be able to attract more buyers. But with how much demand they have for the 3...is that really necessary now? Production is their problem, not demand. Especially given that a fair amount of the Y demand will be people moving from the 3 to the Y. Showing the Y early may not make a material difference to Tesla.
If dropping all Y work can help them focus on the 3 and get the 3 out sooner, I think that is worth doing at this point. Of course, not everybody working on the Y is really going to be able to help meaningfully on the 3 right now. So my guess is that whatever they had planned for the Y, it will still proceed, but probably slower.
I say 2018. They won't unveil the Y until they're ready to take reservations and they won't do that until they have Model 3 production established.
Not enough dates in the poll. Need "After 2018" option.
I vote "2020". It will take them this long to get Model 3 production stabilized.
Perhaps it's not y for sexy but i or e or r ? I doubt sexiest as they have the liege sedan, an suv a mid size coming which leaves pickup/ute, delivery van and a motor bike.
I 'd say 2018; the delivery of Model 3 will be delayed to the beginning of 2018. I think Elon will present the next Model Y just at the same time as the first delivery date of Model 3. This will really blow the competition away, if anything compares -equally- to a Tesla. Tesla does not only attack them in the midsize segment of cars, but also in the more profitabele SUV/CUV segment. Looks like a nightmare to me for the board of BMW, Audi and Mercedes-Benz!
I'd go with 2018 because it's always been a part of the plan, but I'm doubtful they will be able to deliver before 2019-20. Tesla will have their hands full getting Model 3 ramped up until then and won't even have the manufacturing capacity to introduce another model to the mix until additional factories are built.
I believe the Model Y will be announced in part 2 of the Model 3 unveil or close to it. It is using the same platform as the Model 3 and therefore a majority of the parts are going to be the same. They also have to announce it before the new Roadster in 2019 and I'm pretty they would also want to have started making deliveries of the new Model Y before promising people a new car.
I think at the end of 2018, more likely 2019 just because they don't want to Osborne the 3.
I can't imagine it being before 2019 or 2020, but I would also really like to stand corrected.
Still waiting for this bad boy.... Original falcon wing doors.
More like gull wing...?
I'd expect a new model in like 2022-2024 if Tesla even survives (they should). Maybe something else, 1 or 2 models built on the smaller 3 battery platform.
I'd expect a much more redesigned S and X before a new model even, new interior next time, new exterior somewhat as well but built on an improved battery pack, much more capacity, and newer tech.
Alright so get your enormous grains of salt ready, but: Today I took delivery of my CPO Model S and my DS said that "he heard" that the Y is "much further along" than everyone thinks. He agreed with the thought that it is going to be revealed in Part 2 of the Model 3 reveal, and that you'll be able to transfer your reservation to a Y.
Hmmm. I may just have to do that...