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When will the Model Y be unveiled?
- Thread starter Daniel_R
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- Future Tesla Model Y
I put a deposit down on the Model 3, but what I really want as my 2nd Tesla is the Model Y (without Falcon Wing Doors). Given the popularity of crossover SUVs, I suspect many Model 3 reservation holders would actually prefer the Model Y.
I would switch my deposit to the Model Y immediately if they make that an option.
I would switch my deposit to the Model Y immediately if they make that an option.
Which is "Y" I got two reservations after waiting in line - a 3 for me, and (possibly) a Y to replace my wife's Outback. Since the reservation is refundable, I looked at it as purchasing an option for the relatively minor opportunity cost.
I got my salt ready
And we have heard a lot of false rumors from Tesla sales personnel earlier, so we cant just accept this as a fact.... but this is exactly what I have been thinking for some time...
1. The people that design Model 3 is the same peoples that will/have design(ed) the Model Y. In a few weeks they are done with the design of the Model 3, and designing the Model Y will not disturb the preparations to manufacture the Model 3.
2. The 3 and the Y is assumed to be build on the same platform, so it would make sense to design them in parallel, to make sure parts/solutions for one can be used on the other. So my guess is that the Model Y probably also is almost done from the designers.
3. And just like Model S and X is now been produced on the same line, 3 and Y will probably also share the same line(s) in production. So maybe preparing to produce 3+Y will not be so very different from preparing to produce just the 3?
4. And just like it was some people that got the Model S while waiting for the Model X, there is people that has ordered the Model 3 but really want the Model Y.
5. ... and if a lot of Model 3 reservations will be converted to Model Y reservations, does that matter? If Tesla has both cars in production it will still be one sale, and they may even have a grater profit of the Model Y...
So I think it is not unreasonable to think that Model Y will be a "just one more thing" on the Gen-III Part 2 reveal.
... but I will not hold my breath
I find that totally believable. They wanted to use 60% of Model S parts on Model X and ended up using <25%. One way to get better with that is to design them almost simultaneously. Even though no one likes to be compared to the dinosaurs, they do a few things right - this is one of them.
david_42
Member
I haven't really seen much about the Model Y, but if it is a CUV (aka hatchback), it could be announced this year. There is a huge demand for that style in Europe.
travwill
Active Member
I really think it might be around March or something of 2017, with a tentative release at the end of 2018.
Then, in 2018, they would show the next generation roadster with a release in 2019. (In 2015, Elon said that the next generation roadster with maximum plaid wil be due out in 4 years....)
Then, in 2018, they would show the next generation roadster with a release in 2019. (In 2015, Elon said that the next generation roadster with maximum plaid wil be due out in 4 years....)
travwill
Active Member
I don't know, the company is stretched to its limits in debt so until they really delivery say 75% or so of the Model 3 cars, turn cash positive, and show a steady stream of additional Model S, X, and 3's beyond preorders, it is likely that other models will get highly scrutinized. If they take on Solar City's almost $2 Billion in short-term debt they will be even more stretched to survive even beyond another 5 years.
Rashomon
Member
Design resources within Tesla have accomplished most Model 3 work, though design engineers will be very busy from now until the production build dealing with the usual "unknown unknowns." That still won't require as many resources as the design work already accomplished. Tesla has almost certainly completed most of the early conceptual design work on the model Y (visual and preliminary aerodynamic design, passenger packaging, general component placement) already -- that's why you do vehicle platforms, because the second vehicle is a lot easier than the first, as long as you at least think about the new issues the second vehicle raises as you're working on the first. In the second quarter conference call, Musk said that the market for the Y is 500k to 1000K units annually, so Tesla is going to focus on this over mini-buses, semi tractors, new-generation roadsters, etc. This model, along with the M3 sedan, is the automotive future of the company. Given that, I would think detail design work will have started as soon as M3 design completion freed resources. They should have alpha prototypes to show within the year, and given they'll share many, many components, these will be more representative prototypes than the M3 protos that have been revealed to date. The only reason for the MY to trail much more than 12-15 months behind the M3 is capital conservation. They may want to have accomplished real mass production of the M3 before ordering expensive long-lead tooling for the MY. That might be reason to delay MY SOP to early-to-mid 2019. But given the M3 backlog, there's little reason not to reveal the MY early; it's not likely to cannibalize M3 orders, and the increased attention might actually benefit M3 sales, the same way the M3 announcement was claimed to help the MS. I expect we'll see a MY announcement with running vehicle mid-to-late 2017/early 2018.
Rashomon
Member
Given
Given that SUVs and CUVs are dominating mid-size car sales, with real fall-off in almost every segment of the sedan market, I fully expect Tesla to focus on getting the Y out ASAP behind the M3. My own WAG on the M3 S-curve is that there will be no production next July, a little in October, and the rate by January will be shocking to many Tesla skeptics -- though there's a lot that could go wrong to make this WAG look silly. But If we are seeing near full-rate M3 production by Spring of 2018, Tesla is going to want to get MY out ASAP, and will be able to afford to do it. I think they'll go full speed ahead with design and prototype work on the MY, and show it at least by the time they have confidence in the M3 ramp. There's nothing like another few hundred thousand pre-orders to help on the next capital raise
Given that SUVs and CUVs are dominating mid-size car sales, with real fall-off in almost every segment of the sedan market, I fully expect Tesla to focus on getting the Y out ASAP behind the M3. My own WAG on the M3 S-curve is that there will be no production next July, a little in October, and the rate by January will be shocking to many Tesla skeptics -- though there's a lot that could go wrong to make this WAG look silly. But If we are seeing near full-rate M3 production by Spring of 2018, Tesla is going to want to get MY out ASAP, and will be able to afford to do it. I think they'll go full speed ahead with design and prototype work on the MY, and show it at least by the time they have confidence in the M3 ramp. There's nothing like another few hundred thousand pre-orders to help on the next capital raise
kudlacz
Member
If you haven't taken advantage of the $7500 Tax Credit yet, then I would suggest buying Model 3 1st. Otherwise Model Y could be a good option. I am bit worried about the back row space but I have a feeling it will be more than what we have in our 2008 BMW X3 right now. For now I just have to keep it running until the replacement arrives, hopefully towards the end of 2017 or early 2018.
It doesn't matter if they have already taken advantage of the $7500 tax credit or not. You can take as many as you want/your taxes allow. In fact, the form has space for 2 vehicles.
Hopefully Tesla doesn't make the same mistake they made with the Model X. They showed off the Model X before they knew what the true demand for the Model S was. The Model S had twice as much demand as Tesla expected and it took the company years to recover from that which delayed the Model X for all those waiting on it.
So, timing-wise, Tesla needs to showcase the Model Y after they understand what the demand for the Model 3 will be. The company also needs to understand what the true production ramp timing for the Model 3 will be. They have 400K reservation holders that need to be addressed before they develop demand for an entirely new vehicle.
JMHO. Late 2017 to 2018. Sometime after the company has seen post production demand for the Model 3 and after they've seen how the production ramp is progressing.
So, timing-wise, Tesla needs to showcase the Model Y after they understand what the demand for the Model 3 will be. The company also needs to understand what the true production ramp timing for the Model 3 will be. They have 400K reservation holders that need to be addressed before they develop demand for an entirely new vehicle.
JMHO. Late 2017 to 2018. Sometime after the company has seen post production demand for the Model 3 and after they've seen how the production ramp is progressing.
I think the hundreds of thousands of Model 3 paid reservations is a pretty good indication that the demand for that vehicle is a minimum of 1 million/year globally once people are able to buy a Model 3 as easily as they can buy an S/X right now (meaning go online, configure, put down a relatively small deposit, and receive their car in a few months).
So in my opinion Tesla already has a good idea of Model 3 demand, certainly a much better idea than they had before the S launched. I'm sure Tesla was as surprised as anyone else that the demand for a $80K to $100K+ luxury BEV full size sedan was over double their 20,000/year estimate. And note that Tesla still doesn't sell in every country where there is a potential market for their cars, still does not conventional advertising, and continues to expand the Supercharger network into more countries. I think the true global demand is significantly higher than the current S production rate.
Tesla should launch the Model Y as soon as they can while maintaining proper quality levels and -- even more importantly -- providing adequate service and support and Supercharging. When that will be I can't say since I lack any visibility into Tesla's internal planning and development process.
I don't know anything about automobile production, but it makes sense to me that they would build the MY on the same line as the M3. If they are building the M3 as fast as possible to meet demand, would they want to shut down that production to implement MY production?
So, I guess my vote is split. I think they will either begin production of the MY at the same time as the M3, or years later. I don't think they'll want to "stop the presses" on a hot-selling M3 for a month to implement MY production.
So, I guess my vote is split. I think they will either begin production of the MY at the same time as the M3, or years later. I don't think they'll want to "stop the presses" on a hot-selling M3 for a month to implement MY production.
If I'm not mistaken Model S+X is currently built at two production lanes.
There will not be any fewer lines to produce Model 3+Y. But they will probably start with one line, and as that is ramping up production they will build the next, and then the next, and then the next...
So to introduce the Model Y they may just build one (or more) more production line(s), this time with what's needed for the Model Y from the start. Then they may have to shut down the - but just one at a time - "old" lines to integrate what's needed for the Model Y. So no "no Model 3 produced for one month!".
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