I have a 2015 Leaf and we bought a CX-5 in december 2016. I reserved a 3 I think will be available in Canada in late 2018 but wouldn't care waiting till 2020 for a Y. Don't even understand why Tesla don't produce this model over the compact 3 since CUV are so popular and sedan sales are going down.
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When will the Model Y be unveiled?
- Thread starter Daniel_R
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The plan from a few years back was to work on an X3 competitor and do the next generation roadster in parallel. I hope that still is the plan....
Tesla Plans Two More Launches: A Smaller Crossover SUV, Sports Car
Tesla Plans Two More Launches: A Smaller Crossover SUV, Sports Car
"Today, Tesla addresses two relatively small segments of premium sedans and SUVs. With the Model 3, a future compact SUV and a new kind of pickup truck, we plan to address most of the consumer market. A lower cost vehicle than the Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary, because of the third part of the plan described below.
What really matters to accelerate a sustainable future is being able to scale up production volume as quickly as possible. That is why Tesla engineering has transitioned to focus heavily on designing the machine that makes the machine -- turning the factory itself into a product. A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold improvement is achievable by version 3 on a roughly 2 year iteration cycle. The first Model 3 factory machine should be thought of as version 0.5, with version 1.0 probably in 2018." - Elon (Master Plan Part Deux)
My guess based on a 2 year iteration cycle since Model 3 unveiled on March 31, 2016:
2018 reveal for Model Y with the Factory 1.0 version as mentioned.
2020 - Roadster 2.0 and Truck
What really matters to accelerate a sustainable future is being able to scale up production volume as quickly as possible. That is why Tesla engineering has transitioned to focus heavily on designing the machine that makes the machine -- turning the factory itself into a product. A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold improvement is achievable by version 3 on a roughly 2 year iteration cycle. The first Model 3 factory machine should be thought of as version 0.5, with version 1.0 probably in 2018." - Elon (Master Plan Part Deux)
My guess based on a 2 year iteration cycle since Model 3 unveiled on March 31, 2016:
2018 reveal for Model Y with the Factory 1.0 version as mentioned.
2020 - Roadster 2.0 and Truck
11thIndian
Member
I'd love it to be sooner, but I'd guess we'll see the Model Y unveil late this year or early next year.
That said, Elon has already said that both the Semi and the bus concept would be unveiled this year, and at the same time he has said that after the Model 3, the Model Y is the next highest production priority- so perhaps as early as this Summer if they want to reap reservation $$$ and gauge interest to inform production expansion?
I know I'll be eagerly awaiting Quarterly earnings calls for more tidbits.
That said, Elon has already said that both the Semi and the bus concept would be unveiled this year, and at the same time he has said that after the Model 3, the Model Y is the next highest production priority- so perhaps as early as this Summer if they want to reap reservation $$$ and gauge interest to inform production expansion?
I know I'll be eagerly awaiting Quarterly earnings calls for more tidbits.
I am very much hoping that the Y reveal will come soon and that 3 reservations will be transferable to the Y. This would allow me to keep my S and give the new Tesla to my wife, which means we are done with ICE cars forever.
11thIndian
Member
I don't know, aren't they just deferring a natural equilibrium between 3 and Y demand? People who buy a 3, but really want a Y will just sell their 3 a year or two down the road.
While they'd certainly loose SOME Model 3 reservations becoming Model 3 orders, I also think that we're going to see two more large bumps in Model 3 reservations: first after the Model 3 Pt3 Event in March, and second after the vehicles start shipping later in the year and people actually start to see them on the road.
While they'd certainly loose SOME Model 3 reservations becoming Model 3 orders, I also think that we're going to see two more large bumps in Model 3 reservations: first after the Model 3 Pt3 Event in March, and second after the vehicles start shipping later in the year and people actually start to see them on the road.
11thIndian
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I think the chances that they'll unveil the Model Y as a Model 3 variant are pretty slim. I think there's plenty enough time in the year after the Model 3 PT3 in March for separate reveals for the Semi (corporate), commuter transport (municipal), and possibly Model Y to all get their own spotlights, cause there'll be lots to talk about for each one, I'd imagine.
Yes, but one option gives them the cash of the 3 plus the cash of the Y where the other requires them to have sold a new 3 to the used 3 buyer or only receive the cash from the Y, and they only get that money a year or two later.
In a cashflow constrained business, a dollar today is worth a lot more than a dollar in two years.
In an scenario where they can sell all the TM3 they will be able to produce in the next two years anyway, that dollar do not change anything at all. Tesla does not - and should not - care if that Model 3 was bought by a customer that really wanted the Model Y, a customer that really wanted do buy a used Model 3, or a customer that really wanted to buy a new Model 3. And in the case that they did care, it would be to get the customers to buy just the car they wanted or needed as soon as possible, not something else.
... but in a scenario where Tesla has a hard time trying to sell all Model 3 that they will/can produce in the next two years you are right.
11thIndian
Member
It seems to me there are two equally competing market forces likely pushing/pulling inside Tesla regarding the launch of the Model Y.
First, internally, is the want to fill demand for the Model 3. Whatever reservation numbers they were actually expecting, it's clear that demand for the Model 3 surprised Tesla as much as it did everyone else. Reports seem to indicate that Model Y was/is actually far along in the development process, so the question is, what was the original rollout plan for the MY pre-M3 reservation avalanche.
Second is the upcoming lineup of cSUV competitors from the likes of Audi, VW, Jaguar, and BMW. Elon has said he's happy to see the competition embracing EVs, but as a publicly traded company, Tesla needs to act in it's own best interest. That being the case- how important is it for Tesla to get to market, or at the very least show it's hand with regards to unveiling the Model Y to "lock in" customers with reservations and mindshare that the MY is the next car they want to buy.
So how does Tesla weigh meeting demand for an existing product with moving their lineup forward? If we take it for granted for a minute that the Model 3 and Model Y were developed to be share parts and manufacturing and that the Y is fairly far along it's development path- can or should Tesla sit on a Model Y release (especially one they know will have high demand) until it can reach an equilibrium with Model 3 production? If Model 3 orders continue to be strong after the next event, and then once the cars are on the road- do the just keep pushing back Model Y production?
If the roles were reversed, and it was the Model Y that was going to be manufactured in 2017 and the Model 3 that was waiting in the wings, I'm sure I'd be inclined to say as a reservation holder, "Whatever gets me my car sooner!". So I certainly understand M3 people not wanting the Y to effect the rollout.
As someone who does have his sights set firmly on a Model Y- I guess I'd just say I'd be happy if they unveiled the car. At least then I can obsess properly over what I'll be waiting 2-3 years for.
First, internally, is the want to fill demand for the Model 3. Whatever reservation numbers they were actually expecting, it's clear that demand for the Model 3 surprised Tesla as much as it did everyone else. Reports seem to indicate that Model Y was/is actually far along in the development process, so the question is, what was the original rollout plan for the MY pre-M3 reservation avalanche.
Second is the upcoming lineup of cSUV competitors from the likes of Audi, VW, Jaguar, and BMW. Elon has said he's happy to see the competition embracing EVs, but as a publicly traded company, Tesla needs to act in it's own best interest. That being the case- how important is it for Tesla to get to market, or at the very least show it's hand with regards to unveiling the Model Y to "lock in" customers with reservations and mindshare that the MY is the next car they want to buy.
So how does Tesla weigh meeting demand for an existing product with moving their lineup forward? If we take it for granted for a minute that the Model 3 and Model Y were developed to be share parts and manufacturing and that the Y is fairly far along it's development path- can or should Tesla sit on a Model Y release (especially one they know will have high demand) until it can reach an equilibrium with Model 3 production? If Model 3 orders continue to be strong after the next event, and then once the cars are on the road- do the just keep pushing back Model Y production?
If the roles were reversed, and it was the Model Y that was going to be manufactured in 2017 and the Model 3 that was waiting in the wings, I'm sure I'd be inclined to say as a reservation holder, "Whatever gets me my car sooner!". So I certainly understand M3 people not wanting the Y to effect the rollout.
As someone who does have his sights set firmly on a Model Y- I guess I'd just say I'd be happy if they unveiled the car. At least then I can obsess properly over what I'll be waiting 2-3 years for.
11thIndian
Member
The question of the timing for release of the Model Y would seem to be one almost entirely of production capacity. In a back and forth on a comment thread on ELECTREK- an article was brought to my attention about Fremont expansion.
Tesla gets the green light from the city for its massive factory expansion in Fremont
I guess I had sort of assumed this expansion was to get to 500,000 vehicle capacity by 2018. But in fact the announced expansion concerns ultimately increasing the output of Fremont to 1mil vehicles by 2020.
Here is my thinking- Tesla needs to produce about 100,000 S & X each year, plus preorders for 400,000 Model 3 (and any additional Model 3 orders from here forward). So in Tesla's perfect world here's what the next 3 years could look like:
2017: 100K S&X, 100K M3 (200K total production)
2018: 100K S&X, 400K M3 (500K total production, Max Fremont capacity)
2019: 100K S&X, 400K M3 (500K total production, Max Fremont capacity)
2020: 100K S&X, 600K M3, plus 300K of additional capacity (1mil total production, Max Fremont stage 2 capacity)
A lot of how this will follow thru we can probably gauge by the end of this year with how many Model 3s they can actually get out the door. If it's only 20-50K, then they many not reach Max production output until mid 2018.
Regardless, I think by early to mid-2019 they will have passed existing preorders and then some. With that in mind, and knowing they're production capacity is going to be doubled the following year, I think it would be safe to start production of Model Y in 2019, even if it's only 50,000 cars, because it's a minor impact short term- and it would seem likely that as they open the expanded production that they tool for both M3 and MY simultaneously.
Just some thought rumbling around my brain.
Tesla gets the green light from the city for its massive factory expansion in Fremont
I guess I had sort of assumed this expansion was to get to 500,000 vehicle capacity by 2018. But in fact the announced expansion concerns ultimately increasing the output of Fremont to 1mil vehicles by 2020.
Here is my thinking- Tesla needs to produce about 100,000 S & X each year, plus preorders for 400,000 Model 3 (and any additional Model 3 orders from here forward). So in Tesla's perfect world here's what the next 3 years could look like:
2017: 100K S&X, 100K M3 (200K total production)
2018: 100K S&X, 400K M3 (500K total production, Max Fremont capacity)
2019: 100K S&X, 400K M3 (500K total production, Max Fremont capacity)
2020: 100K S&X, 600K M3, plus 300K of additional capacity (1mil total production, Max Fremont stage 2 capacity)
A lot of how this will follow thru we can probably gauge by the end of this year with how many Model 3s they can actually get out the door. If it's only 20-50K, then they many not reach Max production output until mid 2018.
Regardless, I think by early to mid-2019 they will have passed existing preorders and then some. With that in mind, and knowing they're production capacity is going to be doubled the following year, I think it would be safe to start production of Model Y in 2019, even if it's only 50,000 cars, because it's a minor impact short term- and it would seem likely that as they open the expanded production that they tool for both M3 and MY simultaneously.
Just some thought rumbling around my brain.
Surprised if Telsa isn't already building a prototype of the Y. All it has to come up is the exterior design and it already has the X anyway as a design to look at and improve on. Might be wise for Tesla to follow German luxury car makers where each model resembles the rest of the line up but limiting some additional nifty features in the higher end models.
The interior can just be an Ipad more than what it showed in the Model 3 anyway.
My wife will want another smallish SUV but I don't think we can afford two EVs (a 3 and a Y or alternatives) unless I dispose of the 2016 RAV4 Hybrid she drives while it still has some resale value.
The interior can just be an Ipad more than what it showed in the Model 3 anyway.
My wife will want another smallish SUV but I don't think we can afford two EVs (a 3 and a Y or alternatives) unless I dispose of the 2016 RAV4 Hybrid she drives while it still has some resale value.
11thIndian
Member
Tesla's earning's call is coming up on February 22nd. It's obviously going to be weighted very heavily on Model 3 discussion, and it will be really interesting to see what they're willing to reveal, considering the Part III event is probably only a month or so later. That in mind, I wonder if Musk will deflect questions to talk more in general about production and more roadmap- with maybe mentions for commuter vehicle, semi, and Model Y.
Shiplapgirl23
Member
I am guessing Tesla will ride out the excitement wave for the 3, then hopefully start on the Y... maybe 2018/19?
All the model Y needs to be is a squared off model 3. So if they are disciplined in development the model Y will be a simple variant.
But if the model 3 launch goes well they may have demand for a couple million vehicles. So I don't know when they will announce the model Y.
If the model Y is developed like the model X it may not be released until 2025.
But if the model 3 launch goes well they may have demand for a couple million vehicles. So I don't know when they will announce the model Y.
If the model Y is developed like the model X it may not be released until 2025.
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