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When will there be a 400 mile Model X?

verygreen

Curious member
Jan 16, 2017
2,927
11,346
TN
Is that Grafana data from Teslamate? I recently set that up too and it’s awesome.. my real world data on my long range plus shows similar stats...
this is grafana from tesla scraper api but the idea is similar.

lephisto/tesla-apiscraper

Dang, how fast were you going? You get the same efficiency as my 2016 P90D on road trips.
the trip time is in that screenshot, performing some simple math will tell you I was going under 80mph (in other words, very slow).
 

Uncle Paul

Well-Known Member
Nov 1, 2013
6,286
6,826
Canyon Lake,CA
Tesla currently has similar range to many competitive ICE offerings. Biggest issue is that they take longer to charge than to fill with gas.

Smart EV travelers mitigate that by coordinating recharging stops with meals/breaks, power naps, or overnight lodging.

Those who are old school and require to optimize seat time over long distance travel will find ICE vehicles with good efficiency and large fuel tanks to be the faster travel solution. A diesel with +25 gallon tanks is perhaps the best.

For me, that is no longer appealing as I arrive at my destination exhausted and perhaps have even been dangerous driving when not fresh.

I have recalibrated my travels to optimize the total travel experience over just hot legging it as fast as possible, not getting a ticket and snaking through traffic.

As we said in the 60's...it's not the destination, but the journey that matters.
 

SSedan

Active Member
Jul 24, 2017
2,948
2,316
Greenville Wisconsin
I'm sorry, I haven't been following the various subtle Tesla upgrades but that recent announcement about the Model S getting 400 miles of EPA range certainly caught my eye. My wife saw it too and now she wants to trade in our 2018 Model X for a new one, on the assumption that some future software upgrade will give it 400 miles of range too.

Any theories on this? Are there major drive system/battery differences between the current S & X? Or will the X most likely catch up to the S with new software and more efficient wheels?

BTW, my local Tesla store has a Model Y for test drives. Very nice car but it's no Model X. That little display isn't as good as ours. It also had a harsh ride but I think it was the performance model. Tons of room though. Front seats fine, rear seats about like the bench seat in our 5-seater X.


The underpinnings of the S and X are the same for the sake of this conversation.
The newest batteries are the same kwh rating as the LR option in 2018 and X range has gone from 295 to 351 without the battery getting bigger but with mechanical improvement mostly, so the idea of a software update coming up with another 50miles is not going to happen.

Seeing as they already squeezed 56miles of range out of the same size battery, you won't see a 400mile X till the pack grows.

Well maybe if they put a solar panel in the roof and drive an alternator with the wheels...............;)
 

verygreen

Curious member
Jan 16, 2017
2,927
11,346
TN
Tesla currently has similar range to many competitive ICE offerings
it does not. For two reasons:
1. Tesla rated range is overly inflated and does not meet real world use at real highway speeds
2. There are no competitive ICE offerings

Smart EV travelers mitigate that by coordinating recharging stops with meals/breaks, power naps, or overnight lodging.
I don't know about you but I don't need to eat/power nap every 2.5 hours.

The newest batteries are the same kwh rating as the LR option in 2018 and X range has gone from 295 to 351
it did not. it's a mirage. They improved low speed that does not really matter across long distances. The high speed is about the same as before so you get no benefit on road trips.
 

Uncle Paul

Well-Known Member
Nov 1, 2013
6,286
6,826
Canyon Lake,CA
ICE cars also do not get EPA rated range at "real highway speeds". At +80 MPH aero drag significantly reduces range on most all large SUVs. They suck gas at a rapid rate, and you can almost watch the gas gauge move.

Before switching to Tesla, I drove a series of Jeep Grand Cherokees. They had lots of quality/fit/finish as well, but I loved them. I could tow when needed, they had 25 gallon tanks and fuel was cheap. They went in for many safety recalls, and needed occasional service visits for oil changes and plugs. They were handy for off road adventures (4 Wheel Drive) and there were a couple friendly (Camp Jeep) and offroading family friendly support groups.

Getting my first Model X was life altering. Met new friends and learned about a new way of driving. Got to enjoy Supercharging times off with some meals, bathroom breaks, coffee shops short walks and even take my electric scooter out of the frunk to cruise around new areas. Would walk around, check out different shops and generally enjoy my breaks.

In Jeeps it was a different stopping experience. Would eyeball several gas stations, looking for the best price or favored branded pumps. Pull in and lift up the smelly gas pump and stick it in. Often needed to wiggle it around to get the automated pump from clicking off, but sometimes needed to just stand there like an idiot trying to fuel it as fast as possible, but it still would constantly click off before topping off.
Then needed to swipe my card and hope it would go through, otherwise the readout told me to take the walk of shame into the mini market to converse with the goofy clerk. They would again run the car and magically it would work again. Then would walk around the stupid convenience store, not realizing that there was nothing healthy or that I really needed or wanted. Then walk back out to my car an head back down the road for another 5 hours of boredom. My back would ache, leg would ache, would start to nod off and slap my face or turn up the tunes to stay awake. Sometimes would go past several exits without even realizing that I had turned into kind of a Zombie, traveling at +80 MPH in a 4,000 lb vehicle filled with 25 gallons of explosive gasoline...polluting all the way.

Now the Tesla offers me a much more rewarding experience. I have evolved and gotten more engaged in traveling with the quiet electric drive. It is even better off road than the Jeeps, with the precision of electric torque, maximized at low RPM. Can raise the air suspension up for rougher areas and the smooth underbody does not catch of things that would have brought the Jeep to a sudden halt.

These are my thoughts. Still the gassers can go longer distances more rapidly, and if I was getting paid by the mile, that would be my first choice, but now I get paid by the smile and find the Tesla gives the better overall experience.
 

DanCar

Active Member
Oct 2, 2013
1,937
1,643
SF Bay Area
If we assume 8% range improvement per year then year 2022 we will get 400 mile range Model X. Year 2025 for 500 mile Model X and year 2034 for 1,000 mile range Model X. When can we expect a Model X with 1000 mile range?
Year Range with 8% improvement per year
2020 351
2021 379
2022 409
2023 442
2024 478
2025 516
2026 557
2027 602
2028 650
2029 702
2030 758
2031 818
2032 884
2033 955
2034 1031
Here is an example article about improvements to battery tech:
Battery prices fall nearly 50% in 3 years, spurring more electrification: BNEF
 
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verygreen

Curious member
Jan 16, 2017
2,927
11,346
TN
ICE cars also do not get EPA rated range at "real highway speeds". At +80 MPH aero drag significantly reduces range on most all large SUVs
BUT I can fill the tank to full and I can ride it all the way to zero which allows me 4-5 hours between refills.

I know the experience and stuff are different, but we are talking about range here.

Year Range with 8% battery improvement per year
your table has a flaw. There was no battery improvement since Q1 2017 to today in model X. The range change you quote is for different reasons and is not real in real world use anyway.
 

msm859

Member
Oct 23, 2019
357
477
California
did you miss when I said "highway speeds"? Did you miss the superchargign spacing? I have the newest model X that's rated at 351 miles. I had a 1500 miles roadtrip few weeks ago. I know what I am talking about and have data to back it up.

This was the longest segment I managed to achieve:
View attachment 557488


it's not underselling it. It's the unfortunate reality (don't forget you cannot charge to 100% and cannot discharge to 0% in most cases)


you are sadly mistaken.
View attachment 557481

keep in mind a lot of taper is also because supercharger side itself overheats. (it could be better with v3 superchargers but ther are very few of them)

Exactly. A 351 mile range means you can only go maybe 280 miles. Minus the 50 you are only going to go down to = 230 miles. Then when you go to charge you are only going to get to 300 miles in reasonable speed. Thus your second leg in now 240 -50 = 190. miles. They definitely need to get the "range" over 400 miles.
 

DanCar

Active Member
Oct 2, 2013
1,937
1,643
SF Bay Area
...There was no battery improvement since Q1 2017 to today in model X. ...
As I said, "if we assume...". Yes would have been better worded, "range improvements per year". Post updated.
... The range change you quote is for different reasons and is not real in real world use anyway...
People tend to trust the EPA over anonymous sources on the internet, but thanks for your testing feedback.

Here is a chart from Bloomberg about improvements in battery cell density:
bloomberg-nef-battery-lithium-ion-cell-energy-density-chart-graph-BNEF.png

BloombergNEF: Lithium-Ion Battery Cell Densities Have Almost Tripled Since 2010 | CleanTechnica
 
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verygreen

Curious member
Jan 16, 2017
2,927
11,346
TN
As I said, "if we assume...". Yes would have been better worded, "range improvements per year". Post updated.
it just looks strange that you list 2020 at 351 miles when it's the advertised EPA range which makes it appear that thanks to the 8% battery improvement rate is what made it. When in fact it was something else.

Here is a chart from Bloomberg about improvements in battery cell density:
Unfortunately it has very little to do with the actual cars Tesla is producing. The density did not change since 2016 when the 100kWh battery was introduced.
 

K2500Z71

Member
Jul 17, 2019
208
135
Upstate NY
Tesla currently has similar range to many competitive ICE offerings. Biggest issue is that they take longer to charge than to fill with gas.

Smart EV travelers mitigate that by coordinating recharging stops with meals/breaks, power naps, or overnight lodging.

Those who are old school and require to optimize seat time over long distance travel will find ICE vehicles with good efficiency and large fuel tanks to be the faster travel solution. A diesel with +25 gallon tanks is perhaps the best.

For me, that is no longer appealing as I arrive at my destination exhausted and perhaps have even been dangerous driving when not fresh.

I have recalibrated my travels to optimize the total travel experience over just hot legging it as fast as possible, not getting a ticket and snaking through traffic.

As we said in the 60's...it's not the destination, but the journey that matters.
Very true. I also have a diesel pickup with a 36 gallon tank and over 700 miles of realistic range on the highway (I don’t like to run it too empty so refuel between 675 and 700 miles). Sadly, at my age, my bladder has a range of around 100 to 125 miles so I’m stopping every couple of hours anyway. By the time I park, use the restroom, etc. about 10 to 15 minutes have elapsed so a charging stop would only add another 10 to 15 minutes
 

RedXowner

Member
Mar 24, 2020
189
98
Springfield, Virginia
The drag coefficient must increase exponentially with speed. I drive to and from work about 17 miles each way in somewhat crowded traffic conditions but often get up to 75mph for several mile stretches, and I'm only averaging 280-290 Wh/mi. Based on what I'm reading here, my guess is if I was going 80mph the whole round trip and didn't draft, I'd be up around 350 Wh/mi. Big difference in range.
 
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jb401

Member
Mar 1, 2020
133
173
Chicago, IL
Believe that much of the technology going into the 400 mile Model S is already baked into the current Model X as well. It will also be getting more range, but not the headline grabbing 400 miles.

X uses the same newer motors and technology, but it's greater weight, larger frontal area and slightly less aerodynamics will keep it under 400 miles EPA range for some time.

For most owners, the difference between 350-375-400 miles of range is often insignificant.

Faster charging will be more appreciated on longer trips than the extra range for many.

This is correct. I've done a few long road trips in Teslas and the reality is you have to pee long before the car runs out of energy. Charging time is the key, not range.
 
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dmurphy

Woof.
Dec 7, 2018
3,543
4,729
New Jersey - Morris County
This is correct. I've done a few long road trips in Teslas and the reality is you have to pee long before the car runs out of energy. Charging time is the key, not range.

We did a 6600 mile road trip in 17 days this summer. The bio breaks were just about perfectly timed with 15-minute charging stops. Made for an *incredibly* pleasant road trip. Not one time did we miss having a gas car... not once.
 
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