Hello, I would like to draw upon the collective wisdom of this community. Here is my situation. I have about 50k USD "play money" to invest. TSLA went down quite a bit, from about 300-350 to ~230 right now. I am thinking about buying it now. If it goes below 200, I will probably sell to preserve my capital. If it goes above 300, I will sell some (nobody lost money by taking profits), and re-evaluate my investment. Keep some, or sell all. Do you think it will recover back to 300 levels within the next 2-3 years? What would be the catalysts for that? I can see some myself: Shanghai factory. Maybe, maybe not. Chinese are cheap, and there is a lot of competition. They also need to spend a lot to get it running. Robotaxi. Ugh. Every player in the driverless car space could do a presentation like Tesla showed recently. So they are not really a leader here. Waymo already has some driverless taxies on the road, for example. It is gonna be a very crowded space with low margins. But it is a (remote?) possibility. Actual car sales, their main business. It is hard to estimate sustained demand for Tesla cars. Clearly Q3 and Q4 were only good due to pent-up demand (and Panasonic supposedly gave them a hand there buy not charging the full price for those batteries I hear). Q1 sales were not that good. Hopefully Q2 will pick up, but what if it does not? They slashed prices considerably already, they cannot raise them back up. Model S&X are facing increasing competition from Audi, Jaguar, Mercedes, Porsche, etc. It is gonna be tough. Share price will definitely go back to 300 if Q2-Q3 sales are good though. Regulatory credits and rebates. Europe is tightening regulations on ICE cars, so Tesla can expect more credits (Fiat, etc) going forward. On the other hand, most manufacturers already have plans to produce BEV, so it might be a minor factor. Roadster. They sold about 2500 original roadsters. Even if they sell 5000 new roadsters, all at 250k, it is only 1.25B total in sales. They pushed it to next year. Semi. I saw a rumour online that it has been cancelled. I hope not, but their capex has been pretty low for the last few quarters. Semi is hard for me to estimate since I know very little about it. Pickup truck. Not in the works, according to electrek. Also, it would only sell in the US. Besides, typical pickup buyers are very practical people, they are not into tech and supporting EVs. They would only buy it when it is very practical, and not just to support the electrical revolution. Model Y. Model Y looks like a Model 3 refresh, sorry. It will more likely to cannibalize Model 3 sales than to generate significant new sales. What also scares me personally, is that the Model Y reveal and the autonomy day did not move the stock at all. The raise recently moved it up a bit, and now it is down again. Anyway, I have spent several days agonizing over this, reading all kinds of Tesla research. What do you people think? How likely is it to go back to 300 and when will that happen and why? I would love to see what you think. Thank you! tl;dr: When will the stock price recover to 300 and why?