When will TSLA recover to 300 and why?

[algotrader185]

Hello,



I would like to draw upon the collective wisdom of this community. Here is my situation. I have about 50k USD "play money" to invest. TSLA went down quite a bit, from about 300-350 to ~230 right now. I am thinking about buying it now. If it goes below 200, I will probably sell to preserve my capital. If it goes above 300, I will sell some (nobody lost money by taking profits), and re-evaluate my investment. Keep some, or sell all.



Do you think it will recover back to 300 levels within the next 2-3 years? What would be the catalysts for that?

I can see some myself:

• Shanghai factory. Maybe, maybe not. Chinese are cheap, and there is a lot of competition. They also need to spend a lot to get it running.
  
  
• Robotaxi. Ugh. Every player in the driverless car space could do a presentation like Tesla showed recently. So they are not really a leader here. Waymo already has some driverless taxies on the road, for example. It is gonna be a very crowded space with low margins. But it is a (remote?) possibility.
  
  
• Actual car sales, their main business. It is hard to estimate sustained demand for Tesla cars. Clearly Q3 and Q4 were only good due to pent-up demand (and Panasonic supposedly gave them a hand there buy not charging the full price for those batteries I hear). Q1 sales were not that good. Hopefully Q2 will pick up, but what if it does not? They slashed prices considerably already, they cannot raise them back up. Model S&X are facing increasing competition from Audi, Jaguar, Mercedes, Porsche, etc. It is gonna be tough. Share price will definitely go back to 300 if Q2-Q3 sales are good though.
  
  
• Regulatory credits and rebates. Europe is tightening regulations on ICE cars, so Tesla can expect more credits (Fiat, etc) going forward. On the other hand, most manufacturers already have plans to produce BEV, so it might be a minor factor.
  
  
• Roadster. They sold about 2500 original roadsters. Even if they sell 5000 new roadsters, all at 250k, it is only 1.25B total in sales. They pushed it to next year.
  
  
• Semi. I saw a rumour online that it has been cancelled. I hope not, but their capex has been pretty low for the last few quarters. Semi is hard for me to estimate since I know very little about it.
  
  
• Pickup truck. Not in the works, according to electrek. Also, it would only sell in the US. Besides, typical pickup buyers are very practical people, they are not into tech and supporting EVs. They would only buy it when it is very practical, and not just to support the electrical revolution.
  
  
• Model Y. Model Y looks like a Model 3 refresh, sorry. It will more likely to cannibalize Model 3 sales than to generate significant new sales.
  

What also scares me personally, is that the Model Y reveal and the autonomy day did not move the stock at all.

The raise recently moved it up a bit, and now it is down again.


Anyway, I have spent several days agonizing over this, reading all kinds of Tesla research. What do you people think? How likely is it to go back to 300 and when will that happen and why?

I would love to see what you think.



Thank you!





tl;dr: When will the stock price recover to 300 and why?

 

[Kuhz]

I believe it will at least for a time. The last couple years the stock has been insane, just look at the history graphs.

You are on point on many things you covered. What I disagree with is the upcoming competition. I don’t see anyone catching up (even remotely) to Tesla within the next 5 years (I believe it’ll be more than that). The only viable completion is the Taycan which is getting officially revealed later this year and will start at 90k based on some reports. This means a cliche market of buyers that may move a small percentage of S/X buyers. Also the supercharger network is a moat. Tesla stated they want to allow access for other manufacturers. No takers yet which means either Tesla wants alot of $$$ for the privilege or the manufacturers are just not interested

In the next year or two I also believe the S/X refresh will greatly increase sales of those models as they are getting dated. Q2 sales of those models shows that customers are holding off in anticipation.

Wouldn’t put much hope on the pickup. Even though Elon said it is being revealed this year, it will be a long time before we are able to drive one.

 

[Krugerrand]

This is a volatile stock. Don’t invest if you are risk adverse. I strongly suggest you invest what you’re comfortable with losing and then forget about it. Go long or don’t go at all, unless you are an experienced short term investor. You sound like you aren’t.

You also sound like you’ve fallen for a bunch of the media FUD and really don’t have a good grasp of what’s happening and likely to happen.

It could go below $200 only to rebound to $400. Then you’ll kick yourself in the pants for selling at a loss. I’ve seen this stock drop like a rocket and move up like a rocket faster than you can make a decision what to do. This stock is also being manipulated by a group of people/entities whom are currently depressing the SP. They are in control and have been for quite some time.

Go read the mega investor thread. Not just the 2019 one, but past ones as well. Every year there is significant deja vu.

 

[bdy0627]

This is a volatile stock. Don’t invest if you are risk adverse. I strongly suggest you invest what you’re comfortable with losing and then forget about it. Go long or don’t go at all, unless you are an experienced short term investor. You sound like you aren’t.

You also sound like you’ve fallen for a bunch of the media FUD and really don’t have a good grasp of what’s happening and likely to happen.

It could go below $200 only to rebound to $400. Then you’ll kick yourself in the pants for selling at a loss. I’ve seen this stock drop like a rocket and move up like a rocket faster than you can make a decision what to do. This stock is also being manipulated by a group of people/entities whom are currently depressing the SP. They are in control and have been for quite some time.

Go read the mega investor thread. Not just the 2019 one, but past ones as well. Every year there is significant deja vu.

Read Krugerrand's post twice. It's spot on. Buyer beware. Know what you are getting into with TSLA. If you invest more than you are comfortable losing, or you invest for the short term, this stock could cause you a lot of stress. The current stock level likely represents an excellent long term entry point as long as you can live with it going down another 15% before it goes up.

 

[anthonyj]

yes

 

[Johann Koeber]

If you buy now with the plan to sell at 200 you are setting yourself up for a loss. Say the probability to reach 200 before 300 is 50%. 20% anyone? We don’t know, but too risky for me.

Why not just invest 10k now and let it roll. It will get a lot higher than 300 eventually. Just don’t know the timing.

Read Krugerrand again.

Happy and safe investing!

 

[Watts_Up]

Actual car sales, their main business.
It is hard to estimate sustained demand for Tesla cars.
Clearly Q3 and Q4 were only good due to pent-up demand
(and Panasonic supposedly gave them a hand there buy not charging the full price for those batteries I hear). ​

Please submit a link of a reliable source.

​

Roadster. They sold about 2500 original roadsters. Even if they sell 5000 new roadsters,
all at 250k, it is only 1.25B total in sales. They pushed it to next year.​

It's a flagship product. Which identify a brand. Do you think VW make money selling a 1 or 2 million dollar Bugatti?

Semi. I saw a rumour online that it has been cancelled.
I hope not, but their capex has been pretty low for the last few quarters.
Semi is hard for me to estimate since I know very little about it.​

Please submit a link of a reliable source.

Pickup truck. Not in the works, according to electrek. ​

Please submit a link.

Also, it would only sell in the US.​

In US trucks overpass cars, it's a big market. You'd better sale trucks than cars.

Light trucks take a record 69% of U.S. market​

The Ford F-Series, Chevrolet Silverado, and Ram Pickup are the top three best-selling vehicles in America ​

Anyway, I have spent several days agonizing over this,
reading all kinds of Tesla research. What do you people think?​

Did you ever drive a Tesla?

I cannot tell you about economic but for a technological vue point, it's a great product.

None of the different Tesla models have any competitors.

All the other EV companies don't have the capacity to build their own batteries.

Other manufacturers have a conflict of interest with their own ICE production.

 

[SpiceWare]

Q1 sales were not that good.

Only if you compare Quarter to Quarter, which is not something you normally do for a seasonal market like automobile sales. People who are doing that have an agenda, code-named deceit.

When you compare Year over Year then Q1 was quite good - Tesla Deliveries Up 110% In Q1 2019 vs. Q1 2018

Q1 2019: 63,000
Q1 2018: 29,980
Q1 2017: 25,000
Q1 2016: 14,820
Q1 2015: 10,045
Q1 2014: 6,457
Q1 2013: 4,900
Q1 2012: 0

 

[oneday]

Krugerrand did a good job of explaining TSLA.

I’ll only add

 

[DurandalAI]

What I see moving Tesla above $300 is when a demonstration of the Tesla Taxi is made and then operational in a few cities with plans to expand further. Otherwise I don't see Model Y, Roadster, Semi, or Pickup making a significant move on the stock price. Tesla stock tends to slowly rise without any bad news, hence the current barrage of FUD.

 

[PabloChacon]

Didn't you know it's going to $4k?

 

[Johann Koeber]

Sure it's going to $4,000
but first it goes down, then up, then down .... and eventually in several years to 4,000.

Make sure you are still invested then.

 

[jbih]

IIRC Cathy Wood said that the $4k need to be revised... To an even higher price target.

 

[PabloChacon]

Fingers crossed. We shall see.

 

[tander]

A number of things could help it recover and imo there are a lot of wildcards, but the two things I see on the horizon that will probably happen the soonest:
1. Autopilot maturing into a saving lives/can't live without it kind of thing, it sounds like the next year or two we will finally see it. If they can show some irrefutable safety numbers it could make seat belts look like no big deal. No analysts assign any kind of value to how autopilot will effect sales, or how it will effect ride sharing, so when they start doing that, it will be a major bump. If autopilot ends up getting delayed again I guess the Tesla truck or semi would go on the list although that's not till 2020?
2. A blowout quarter. Sometime in the next year it wouldn't be surprising to have another where they just knock it out of the park. They will probably do this regardless of autopilot, since they just started doing leasing on model 3 (sidenote: What will happen to BMW/Audi/etc sales with lease competition from Tesla?), but for example if autopilot goes live during the beginning of the third quarter I wouldn't be surprised if they have to start taking reservations again even after raising prices.

 

[BLSmith2112]

I think all it will take is Tesla to prove they are structurally profitable for a year. Shanghai should solve that.

 

[acuma50]

I don’t know what it is going to take, and I don’t believe it’s going to take anything specifically. You could hear weeks and weeks of good news and it could continue down or hear bad news for weeks and watch it blast off back to 350. From the technical perspective, it is clearly in a downtrend and has been since the beginning of this year (maybe even started in December depending on how you look at the chart). I’m a trader, not an investor. Anyway, if you are already/still in at this point, my advice is to wait until the next earnings report. The downtrend could end before the earnings report. If the downtrend continues after the next earnings report, exit if you don’t want to potentially lose much more. If you are an investor and want to hold, just be prepared for a long long ride. If the earnings report stops the downtrend, for whatever reason (it could be a negative report- it doesn’t really matter ;-) ), it’s worth waiting for it to turn around, which should happen pretty quickly. It’s a balancing of risk. Risk waiting for the earnings report for the chance of a rebound. Of course, every risk comes with possible consequences. I’m comfortable waiting it out. Like others have said, there is no crystal ball, but that’s my analysis. Good luck!

Hello,




I would like to draw upon the collective wisdom of this community. Here is my situation. I have about 50k USD "play money" to invest. TSLA went down quite a bit, from about 300-350 to ~230 right now. I am thinking about buying it now. If it goes below 200, I will probably sell to preserve my capital. If it goes above 300, I will sell some (nobody lost money by taking profits), and re-evaluate my investment. Keep some, or sell all.



Do you think it will recover back to 300 levels within the next 2-3 years? What would be the catalysts for that?

I can see some myself:

• Shanghai factory. Maybe, maybe not. Chinese are cheap, and there is a lot of competition. They also need to spend a lot to get it running.
  
  
• Robotaxi. Ugh. Every player in the driverless car space could do a presentation like Tesla showed recently. So they are not really a leader here. Waymo already has some driverless taxies on the road, for example. It is gonna be a very crowded space with low margins. But it is a (remote?) possibility.
  
  
• Actual car sales, their main business. It is hard to estimate sustained demand for Tesla cars. Clearly Q3 and Q4 were only good due to pent-up demand (and Panasonic supposedly gave them a hand there buy not charging the full price for those batteries I hear). Q1 sales were not that good. Hopefully Q2 will pick up, but what if it does not? They slashed prices considerably already, they cannot raise them back up. Model S&X are facing increasing competition from Audi, Jaguar, Mercedes, Porsche, etc. It is gonna be tough. Share price will definitely go back to 300 if Q2-Q3 sales are good though.
  
  
• Regulatory credits and rebates. Europe is tightening regulations on ICE cars, so Tesla can expect more credits (Fiat, etc) going forward. On the other hand, most manufacturers already have plans to produce BEV, so it might be a minor factor.
  
  
• Roadster. They sold about 2500 original roadsters. Even if they sell 5000 new roadsters, all at 250k, it is only 1.25B total in sales. They pushed it to next year.
  
  
• Semi. I saw a rumour online that it has been cancelled. I hope not, but their capex has been pretty low for the last few quarters. Semi is hard for me to estimate since I know very little about it.
  
  
• Pickup truck. Not in the works, according to electrek. Also, it would only sell in the US. Besides, typical pickup buyers are very practical people, they are not into tech and supporting EVs. They would only buy it when it is very practical, and not just to support the electrical revolution.
  
  
• Model Y. Model Y looks like a Model 3 refresh, sorry. It will more likely to cannibalize Model 3 sales than to generate significant new sales.

What also scares me personally, is that the Model Y reveal and the autonomy day did not move the stock at all.

The raise recently moved it up a bit, and now it is down again.


Anyway, I have spent several days agonizing over this, reading all kinds of Tesla research. What do you people think? How likely is it to go back to 300 and when will that happen and why?

I would love to see what you think.



Thank you!





tl;dr: When will the stock price recover to 300 and why?

 

[CarlK]

Sure it's going to $4,000
but first it goes down, then up, then down .... and eventually in several years to 4,000.

Make sure you are still invested then.

Past history does not indicate future but I have said before that TSLA has an eerie resemblance to NFLX a decade ago. NFLX after a pretty nice rise after its IPO, even though it was not making money and was the most shorted stock in the 2000's. By end of the decade it had risen about 20X from its IPO price but it ran into a trouble in 2010-~2011 when it went all in to the streaming model from the DVD by mail model that it had already dominated. It lost subscribers and stock went down more than 70%. However it soon bottomed out and started to rise. The rest is you can say history. You would have made 40X profit if you bought at that point. Even if you bought at the peak before 2011 you'd still realize a 10X gain. You would have to be able to overcome the fear and held onto the stock though.

Both companies were started by super smart founders with business models most people could not even understand. Both had established a strong foothold in the business but then they would not hesitate to disrupt their own business when they see something much better came along. The fisrt half of the two matched almost year to year and event to event. Let's see if the second half of the story will follow too. If it does TSLA will no doubt go to $4,000 if not more.

it’s worth waiting for it to turn around, which should happen pretty quickly.

It's not for Tesla to turn around though. It's already been doing pretty much everything right. It's only for people to understand what it's been doing, such as putting a lot of resources into developing self driving technology instead of put the money on the bottom line to make it look good and please those ignorant analysts.

A missing part of my NFLX story is the 2011 turn around of stock price was triggered by Carl Ichan buying 10% of the stock which he thought was a great buy aginst the market sentiment at the time. All it takes is for a few smart investors to recognize a good stock. Carl Ichan did sell his holdings prematurely after he made a few hundred percent profit. NFLX would have turned around no matter what. Ichan only accelerated it timing wise.

 

[electracity]

I would like to draw upon the collective wisdom of this community. Here is my situation...................

There vast majority of people who participate regularly in these investment forums are in the red on TSLA. It can be a great stock to trade, but both the lovers as well haters have not done well.

IMO if buying today you are picking red or picking black. You are not going to succeed or fail based on specific insights.

I think the two critical questions are broad:
1) Where are we in the transition to EV?
2) How near is the end of the bull market?

If I was confident in the answers to these two questions I could be decisive in the value of TSLA at the current price.

Also, Tesla would be crazy to not build a couple hundred semis and get them in the hands of the major companies with pre-orders. The semi exploits many things that Tesla does uniquely well.

 

[psychojr]

Very difficult to say when it will "recover." TSLA is priced like a speculative tech stock, not a car company, but rightfully so. Do your own research and compare the market cap and fundamentals to BMW, Ford, GM, etc. and it will be very obvious.