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He started off saying mid-2017 to late-2017, then settled on late-2017--think he is trying to get better at setting expectations.
One of the points he made on the MX, which I would also assume applies to the M3 is they want to see a very rapid ramp on production, not the 6+ month ramp they had with the MS. They are not going to ship a couple, just to say they hit their date, then drag out the ramp, that will only create frustrated customers.
Breezy
Member
Prototype in March 2016. Production late 2017?
I think we can be confident that's not going to happen. Tesla goes from prototype to production relatively quickly, but not under two years quickly.
Realistically I guess we're looking at late 2018, maybe early 2019 for initial deliveries.
I think we can be confident that's not going to happen. Tesla goes from prototype to production relatively quickly, but not under two years quickly.
Realistically I guess we're looking at late 2018, maybe early 2019 for initial deliveries.
Aussie Bob
Member
Tesla plans to unveil its $35,000 Model 3 in March 2016 in theverge.com
Saw this article which may add more insight to when. Article indicates that first deliveries may start late 2017.
dgpcolorado
high altitude member
Interesting news. I have been hoping that I could get a Model 3 by 2018. Still might make it, assuming that I can get a decent spot in the order queue.
dgpcolorado
high altitude member
Well, the goal is to make the Model 3 a mass market car so I assume that production numbers will be fairly high once they start. But, yes, if production is delayed to late 2018 then you could be right...
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
Once again, I am not so sure if you guys are Hater-Ade swilling Naysayers or Seriously Defeatist former Tesla Enthusiasts. I prefer to look at this through Optimist Red colored lenses...
2017 means 2017. Period. Initial deliveries will be in North America -- US and Canada. Deliveries to Europe will follow, but no later than Q1 2018 for first arrivals. Right hand drive territories will have to wait a bit, but nowhere near as long as UK, HK, JP, and AUS Customers had to wait for Model S.
Have a little faith. Elon always gets by with a little hello from his friends.
The Tesla Gigafactory is ahead of schedule. Thus, Tesla Model ≡ is on schedule. Tesla Motors cannot afford to have the Gigafactory sitting idle without cars to receive battery packs.
2017 means 2017. Period. Initial deliveries will be in North America -- US and Canada. Deliveries to Europe will follow, but no later than Q1 2018 for first arrivals. Right hand drive territories will have to wait a bit, but nowhere near as long as UK, HK, JP, and AUS Customers had to wait for Model S.
Have a little faith. Elon always gets by with a little hello from his friends.
The Tesla Gigafactory is ahead of schedule. Thus, Tesla Model ≡ is on schedule. Tesla Motors cannot afford to have the Gigafactory sitting idle without cars to receive battery packs.
If I were a real cynic, I'd argue that the power wall allows the Model 3 to be late, by giving Tesla other avenues to sell gigafactory output. Maybe its introduction is an indication that Tesla is concerned the Model 3 may be late.
Obviously I hope I'm wrong!
Also that factory is going to slowly ramp up. Maybe a 1/8 of it comes online as the schedule, and as it's built out it's capacity and number of production lines increases. Say there is only one type of battery line open when it first starts up. That line maybe only goes the car use, or perhaps one of the two home storage battery types (the two home storage batts are different chemistries from each other, and also different from the cars). I'm sure the accounting wizards at Tesla know what division needs priority to bring money into the company and that division will get the first line at the factory set up for it.
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
Of the expected 50 gigawatt annual capacity for the Gigafactory, 15 gigawatt has been slated for stationary storage from the outset. This is not a case of choosing one application over the other. Each will be fully served.
You got a point here... But I think it not correct. What I believe is happening is that earlier Panasonic had trouble with producing cells fast enough to supply Tesla, and Tesla was slowed down for lack of battery cells. Lately I have not heard anything about that. So it seems like Panasonic is now (or expected soon to) producing cells faster then Tesla can consume them on cars. But Tesla still needs them to keep the production on top - so they will not have another slowdown when they start the Model X line(s) later this year.
... and in addition: As we all know, when the GF is in full production it is planed to produce 35GWh of battery storage for the cars, and still import 15GWh of cells from Panasonic in Asia. For Panasonic to be willing to invest enough in the production at the GF, they need to see that there still is a marked for this 15GWh. If not they may not be willing to produce more then 20GWh at the GF, to make sure they can sell all the cells that they do produce in their existing factories.
That's what I believe is the reason for this announcement by Tesla now. But I may be wrong... But I hope not
That place is massive. They won't build it out 100% and then just flip a switch and magically start producing at those numbers. They won't hit 100% projected numbers until 2020 at the earliest. So as construction continues, and area's are completed, they will ramp it up section by section. The types of batteries that are needed in priority (or profit) will get made first. The won't have even capacity for each cell type right off the bat. They will start producing a single kind, then another and so on and so on (and adding capacity to those lines as they go until they hit 2020 projected capacity.
dlinkeg
Member
Supposed to be in March of 2016, according to the latest reports in May of 2015. This could be optimistic, but with battery efficiency projections coming within 5% of expectations for the Model 3, it is VERY possible that it will be available by the end of 2017. Yes, I know that every other Tesla has been delivered substantially later than first announcements guaranteed, but I would rather receive a vehicle which has been perfected before delivery, rather than what passes for quality control in Detroit (fix it when enough owners are injured or dead).
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
jstack6: No. General Motors has never taken a car from concept to production in under three years. The Cadillac Converj Concept was shown five years before the Cadillac ELR arrived. Chevrolet showed two completely different concepts for the Bolt within six months of each other. GM's own press release says nothing about a release date for the Bolt, only that it was presented to gauge interest and noting which Michigan facility would build it. If a Bolt arrives prior to 2017, it will have a tiny battery pack and a gasoline engine.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
LOL.
I don't understand why some Tesla fans are so against the idea of Bolt being a real vehicle.
I think you're misinterpreting. I think just about everyone at TMC would love for real competitors to exist -- in reality, in the near-term. Sadly, the track record suggests that's incredibly unlikely.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
No I'm not misinterpreting.
The track record of news outlets in telling us what the future plans of BIG 3 are is excellent. Detroit leaks like a sieve. Yet, some what to hang on to "official statements" and post ridiculous statements like Bolt will be a hybrid.
Still, there is a big difference between being "against it" and being skeptical it will live up to expectations. I will change my tune when there is even one actual release that I don't find to be extremely disappointing compared to the initial hype.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
May be my expectations of Bolt aren't too high (near 200 mile EPA range, $40k, low volumes). I see no reason to think GM can't deliver on this - esp. given what LG has been saying for years.
BTW, I'd be surprised if Tesla does deliver on the expectations EM sets - $35k, 2017 delivery, "real world" 200+ miles.
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