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When will we have a Basic Minimum Income?

Discussion in 'Off Topic' started by nwdiver, Nov 4, 2016.

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When will we (The US) have a Basic Minimum income?

  1. Never. Have you seen Elysium? Yeah... get ready.

    76 vote(s)
    53.9%
  2. ~5 years

    5 vote(s)
    3.5%
  3. ~10 years

    6 vote(s)
    4.3%
  4. ~20 years

    27 vote(s)
    19.1%
  5. ~40 years

    17 vote(s)
    12.1%
  6. >100 years

    10 vote(s)
    7.1%
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  1. anticitizen13.7

    anticitizen13.7 Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018

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    Amazon just launched a cashier-free convenience store

    Say goodnight to grocery store jobs too.

    Amazon claims that using similar technology to self driving car systems (computer vision, deep learning algorithms), they can create a brick & mortar food shop that needs no checkout whatsoever. Add in robots to stock shelves, self-driving delivery trucks from automated Amazon warehouses, and that represents a huge decrease in required human workers.
     
  2. anticitizen13.7

    anticitizen13.7 Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018

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    My main concern is this: What happens in the event that manufacturing, agriculture, and transport become automated to the point where only a small number of pumps (say, upper Middle Class professionals) and above are needed to sustain the system. What happens if businesses no longer need the kind of mass scale consumption of goods we see today in order to pay wages, maintain systems, conduct R&D, and make returns to shareholders?

    The SyFy show Incorporated appears to demonstrate what might be the extreme consequence of this: A handful of privileged people live in high tech restricted communities and urban areas, and the unneeded masses are left to fend for themselves in decrepit, impoverished Red Zones.
     
  3. nwdiver

    nwdiver Well-Known Member

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    That was the Elysium reference in the poll. It's exactly why we need a basic minimum income.... probably less and less 'basic' as our society advances. If we don't disassociate labour and income we'll end up with a severely bifurcated society... that's poison for a democracy.
     
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  4. kort677

    kort677 Banned

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    wind up with a bifurcated society? where have you been?
     
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  5. nwdiver

    nwdiver Well-Known Member

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    Even more so than now... Elysium style...
     
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  6. kort677

    kort677 Banned

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    there are those who chose to succeed and there are those who chose not to.
    the opportunities are there, if you chose to take them.
    sitting around moaning about those who have more than you is wasted efforts, throughout the history of civilization there are always those who win at life and those who just get through life.
    the choice is yours.
     
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  7. tomas

    tomas Only partially psycho

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    There are degrees and ours is mild. don't be fooled by very vocal minorities and cable "news", most Americans gravitate to the center. Look at South Sudan, anywhere in the Middle East, or recall the 90s Balkans war. We are nowhere near that.
     
  8. tomas

    tomas Only partially psycho

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    This is not about choosing to sit around. And, by the way, having spent some time working in human services (aka "entitlements") I can tell you for sure, most people do not want them and really want to work instead. Heck, that's what drove the 2016 election result: rural voters who are suffering from recession and job migration who want more jobs and were willing to roll the dice on someone who said they'd provide.

    The discussion is about the ultimate result of industrialization and technology: we simply won't need the workers. There are not enough jobs for all the people who want one. You cannot cite history because this is new. In the history of civilization, there have always been more work opportunities than people. This is about a world where that is reversed.

    I cannot understand people so stuck in the present and past that they cannot imagine a different future.

    I can even less understand those who ridicule the people who are trying to get out ahead of a societal problem.

    Having said that, I am very uncomfortable with concept of basic minimum income as the solution to the problem. It might be part of it, but I believe that idle hands are the devil's workshop, and we need to find ways to get all people engaged in some positive enterprise, or their enterprise will become destructive.
     
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  9. kort677

    kort677 Banned

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    because the pollyannic, utopian visions of the future are IMHO naive, unattainable and have never been able to succeed when tried.
    as long as there are humans involved humanistic tendencies will also be involved. we are not all equal and attempts at shaping a society of equals is impossible. google utopian fallacy
     
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  10. kort677

    kort677 Banned

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    I refer you to NYC, there are two very different worlds that exist on the island of Manhattan, the one below 96 st and the one above.
     
  11. ggies07

    ggies07 Supporting Member

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    wrong thread.......
     
  12. tomas

    tomas Only partially psycho

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    #72 tomas, Dec 6, 2016
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2016
    You are clearly not tracking. There is nothing utopian about this thread. It is not about shaping some idealistic society. It is about a pretty difficult future - where humans are headed and how to make best of it.
     
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  13. tomas

    tomas Only partially psycho

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    Please read up on Kosovo. Then maybe you will understand difference between economic disparity and war.
     
  14. kort677

    kort677 Banned

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    I could be wrong but AFAIK the main reasons for that war was on religious issues. read up on the history of the balkans
     
  15. tomas

    tomas Only partially psycho

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    Lemme see...

    @nwdiver said: If we don't disassociate labour and income we'll end up with a severely bifurcated society... that's poison for a democracy.
    @kort677 said: wind up with a bifurcated society? where have you been?
    I said: There are degrees and ours is mild. don't be fooled by very vocal minorities and cable "news", most Americans gravitate to the center. Look at South Sudan, anywhere in the Middle East, or recall the 90s Balkans war. We are nowhere near that.
    @kort677 said: I refer you to NYC, there are two very different worlds that exist on the island of Manhattan, the one below 96 st and the one above.
    I said: Please read up on Kosovo. Then maybe you will understand difference between economic disparity and war.
    @kort677 said: I could be wrong but AFAIK the main reasons for that war was on religious issues. read up on the history of the balkans

    Societies can be bifurcated for many reasons... religion, economic disparity, or both being most common (Israel/Palestine is a good example of the "both"). My point was, bifurcation in America - even in your example of N/S of 96th street - is mild. In Kosovo, they were fighting in the streets and killing each other in large numbers. We are not, at least not yet.



    PS, the Cubs won. I guess you do not accept the rules of baseball? If anything, it was rigged for Cleveland with the silly (since repealed) all-star game/home field determination. Cubs won despite that, they must be pretty good!
     
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  16. nwdiver

    nwdiver Well-Known Member

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    #76 nwdiver, Dec 6, 2016
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2016
    That went on the rails... ok... back on topic...

    Seems like everyday now there are new warnings about the threat to employment from Automation. Another segment tonight on Nightly Business report. In the brief interview with Martin Ford on NBR he pointed to the reason this threat to jobs is different. In the past it generally effected one sector. Jobs lost in Agriculture shifted to Manufacturing. Jobs lost in Manufacturing shifted to Service. Machine Learning is hitting ALL sectors simultaneously.

    Again... the key thesis here is;

    - Production must equal Consumption
    - Automation (specifically machine learning) will significantly reduce man power needs in the next 5-10 years
    - Income is tethered to employment for most people and Consumption is tethered to income everyone
    => Consumption is tethered to employment

    With consumption tethered to employment.... How do we ensure Production doesn't sag as our ability to produce increases exponentially as our need for employment simultaneously falls off a cliff? That's the challenge.
     
  17. mspohr

    mspohr Well-Known Member

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    I'm spending a few weeks in the Philippines analyzing their health system. Interesting place. Lots of well educated motivated people and a healthy growing economy but still not enough jobs. One of the biggest exports is workers. Lots of trained nurses, teachers, even civil engineers as well as construction labor. This works as a stopgap for them and the remittances they send home help the economy but obviously every country can't just export their excess labor.
    A better solution needs to be found...
     
  18. mspohr

    mspohr Well-Known Member

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    We already have severe economic inequality. George Monbiot has an interesting take of this issue. He believes that corporations are what is killing democracy.
    No country with a McDonald’s can remain a democracy | George Monbiot
    "What I mean is that, under the onslaught of the placeless, transnational capital that McDonald’s exemplifies, democracy as a living system withers and dies. The old forms and forums still exist – parliaments and congresses remain standing – but the power they once contained seeps away, re-emerging where we can no longer reach it."
    "Above all, the power that should belong to the people is being crushed by international treaty. Contracts such as Nafta, Ceta the proposed TransPacific Partnership and Trade in Services Agreement and the failed Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership are crafted behind closed doors in discussions dominated by corporate lobbyists. And those lobbyists are able to slip in clauses no informed electorate would ever approve of, such as the establishment of opaque offshore tribunals, through which corporations can bypass national courts, challenge national laws and demand compensation for the results of democratic decisions."

    Corporations will never agree to a basic minimum income (or even a minimum wage) since they rely on cheap labor and desperately subservient employees. So, the problem is much deeper that just a basic income social fix.
     
  19. tomas

    tomas Only partially psycho

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    I was not off topic for a minute.
     
  20. kort677

    kort677 Banned

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