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When will we have a Basic Minimum Income?

When will we (The US) have a Basic Minimum income?

  • Never. Have you seen Elysium? Yeah... get ready.

    Votes: 76 53.9%
  • ~5 years

    Votes: 5 3.5%
  • ~10 years

    Votes: 6 4.3%
  • ~20 years

    Votes: 27 19.1%
  • ~40 years

    Votes: 17 12.1%
  • >100 years

    Votes: 10 7.1%

  • Total voters
    141
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I think we've come a bit of track, here. Why are we arguing about police salaries?
This thread is about a universal basic income which I think everyone can agree are set at a level much lower than almost every job in the public or private sector. UBI is intended to prevent people from starving and give them a chance at shelter while greatly reducing the amount of bureaucratic overhead of traditional public aid programs. It's "basic" income, not a living wage or a wage to compensate a trained professional.
Some people are upset that someone who is "undeserving" might receive a benefit or might not use it according to traditional Judaeo-christian principles (or whatever ideology they subscribe to). I have my opinion on how money should be spent and others have their opinions. I tend to think that we spend too much money on wars (of all kinds) but that is just my opinion. I think in order to implement a UBI we need to get away from value judgments completely since that will sink any effort to implement the program.
 
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This discussion is irrelevant to the topic of this thread.
Please take it somewhere else... start your own thread.

I'm sorry you cannot see the parallels, especially if you are a California taxpayer.

Why are the state salaries so high? The legislature did that to gain power. When those receiving the Basic Income for not working exceed those who work, then power shifts. Who will determine the Basic Wage of the future? Just like today's gov't unions, those who receive the money will determine how much via the legislature, and the Ponzi scheme collapses.

Can you see the problem? We have to abandon democracy entirely to make it work at some point in future.
 
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I'm sorry you cannot see the parallels, especially if you are a California taxpayer.

Why are the state salaries so high? The legislature did that to gain power. When those receiving the Basic Income for not working exceed those who work, then power shifts. Who will determine the Basic Wage of the future? Just like today's gov't unions, those who receive the money will determine how much via the legislature, and the Ponzi scheme collapses.

Can you see the problem? We have to abandon democracy entirely to make it work at some point in future.
What do you propose as an alternative, assuming that workforce supply outpaces demand?
 
I'm sorry you cannot see the parallels, especially if you are a California taxpayer.

Why are the state salaries so high? The legislature did that to gain power. When those receiving the Basic Income for not working exceed those who work, then power shifts. Who will determine the Basic Wage of the future? Just like today's gov't unions, those who receive the money will determine how much via the legislature, and the Ponzi scheme collapses.

Can you see the problem? We have to abandon democracy entirely to make it work at some point in future.
It's hard to know where to start when I see this level of crazy so I'll just stick to my original request that you start your own off-topic.
Perhaps you could give it a title like "Hippies, out of control government, Ponzi scheme, California gone wild"
 
What do you propose as an alternative, assuming that workforce supply outpaces demand?

7 day weeks, then 6 day weeks, then 5 day weeks, then 4 day weeks...

It's been happening for over 100 years and will most likely continue.

The jump to a 4 day week did not stick with the private sector, but it has in certain government jobs. It will eventually stick.

However, it is claimed today that we do not have enough workers. Actually the numbers are ok, it's the occupational training that needs work.
 
7 day weeks, then 6 day weeks, then 5 day weeks, then 4 day weeks...

It's been happening for over 100 years and will most likely continue.

The jump to a 4 day week did not stick with the private sector, but it has in certain government jobs. It will eventually stick.
I like the simplicity of that concept, but I think it makes some broad assumptions. First, it assumes that all sectors will have employment opportunities reduced equally. It also assumes that people can move seamlessly from one job to the next, and that having a nation of part-timers is reasonable. In your defense, economists also (used to) love this vision, but it's been unfortunately disproven. The data shows that higher paid/higher skilled employees do indeed move readily between industries when forced. But line workers at a plant are less likely to be able to do this. Also, if you have 15k people employed in a small town doing line work who are all made redundant by automation, there's a geographic hurdle as well.

I am paraphrasing some of David Autor's work and research, which I heard on yet another very interesting Freakonomics episode. I recommend it.

Freakonomics also did an entire episode on BMI, for those interested. Brynjolfsson, who I mentioned upthread, is interviewed.
 
I like the simplicity of that concept, but I think it makes some broad assumptions. First, it assumes that all sectors will have employment opportunities reduced equally. It also assumes that people can move seamlessly from one job to the next, and that having a nation of part-timers is reasonable. In your defense, economists also (used to) love this vision, but it's been unfortunately disproven. The data shows that higher paid/higher skilled employees do indeed move readily between industries when forced. But line workers at a plant are less likely to be able to do this. Also, if you have 15k people employed in a small town doing line work who are all made redundant by automation, there's a geographic hurdle as well.

I am paraphrasing some of David Autor's work and research, which I heard on yet another very interesting Freakonomics episode. I recommend it.

Freakonomics also did an entire episode on BMI, for those interested. Brynjolfsson, who I mentioned upthread, is interviewed.

It really is not the simplicity, it's the history of business in the USA, as taught in school and printed in textbooks. We did start out at 7 or 6 days by 12hr. The reduction in days and hours occurred over time.

In Europe, some countries are far ahead of the US, but the USA is still declining, just like we were told it would 40 years ago.

Sick Of The 40-Hour Work Week? Try Life In Germany And France

I tend to believe history trumps theory, but if I put the word trump in a sentence, then I must start rounding up immigrants.
 
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It really is not the simplicity, it's the history of business in the USA, as taught in school and printed in textbooks. We did start out at 7 or 6 days by 12hr. The reduction in days and hours occurred over time.

In Europe, some countries are far ahead of the US, but the USA is still declining, just like we were told 40 years ago.

Sick Of The 40-Hour Work Week? Try Life In Germany And France
How does that address what I posted above? I get that this is what's been happening, but again, this thread is about a sea change in automation.

Maybe you're taking the position that it's not going to happen, and that's fine. I think it's on topic to discuss whether or not automation poses a risk to specific sections of the employment base.
 
How does that address what I posted above? I get that this is what's been happening, but again, this thread is about a sea change in automation.

Maybe you're taking the position that it's not going to happen, and that's fine. I think it's on topic to discuss whether or not automation poses a risk to specific sections of the employment base.

Automation started a very, very long time ago. So did massive productivity jumps from other technologies like electricity or trucks or etc.

There is no 'sea of change' today. There was 40 years ago. That's when NC and CNC equipment surpassed conventional machines.

I've been around automation my entire life from when it was Hollerith cards, or paper tape, to modern networked remotely programmed equipment with embedded expert systems.

I was in an interesting position to watch it. I was a manual machinist when the tipping point occurred. 1/2 the floor was Manual the other 1/2 Automated, roughly 1978. Today it's very close to 100% CNC/DCC (Computer Controlled). Manual equipment is only for prototyping.
 
With BMI, are we assuming it gets paid to everyone, or just those who fall below some threshold? I think it would and should be paid to everyone in such a hypothetical future. Kind of like the country paying dividends to it's people for being awesome and automating everything. There would still be opportunities to make more. Some might sit on their ass and do nothing, but others would be free -- more free than they are today -- to try to do great things. Many of us, myself included, have ideas in our mid-life about how we could have lived a better life with a more productive career, but are limited in our ability to move towards that more productive outcome as our current careers require nearly 100% dedication (I rarely even get to take a vacation; haven't taken a real vacation in almost 10 years), leaving no room for modification without risk of total financial collapse.
 
With BMI, are we assuming it gets paid to everyone, or just those who fall below some threshold?
Typically when BMI is discussed it's a blanket for everyone. That way it reduces the burden of having the government verify income.

Also from the libertarian point of view, giving everyone a blanket allows them to innovate and take risks. So you don't want only the "poor" to take risk.
 
New UBI experiment in Kenya paying 6,000 over 12 years at 1/2 the local wages.

There is a significant difference between short-term experiments in UBI and long-term ones. Hopefully, projects like this one will show a more accurate picture of the mindset of recipients who are receiving UBI long-term.

I think the key to making UBI successful is the removal of restrictions to being productive and earning more money. Yes, we have the picture of welfare recipients hanging out on street corners or watching Oprah and Dr. Phil reruns all day. If they could use UBI to pay for child care, would they then apply themselves to being productive?

I also look forward to the day that "productive" doesn't mean simply working in a j.o.b. I retired early last year at 56, but I wouldn't say that I wasn't productive. I'm maintaining my home, (sailboat), learning to draw, reading for education/pleasure (currently Kevin Kelly's "The Inevitable", and learning español in preparation for sailing to Mexico later this year. Would that be called "selfish productivity"? Is it really that much different from watching misc. TV shows all day when we're all just going to die eventually anyway?

Challenges? Absolutely! I don't like wealth distribution any more than the next conservative libertarian, but I see virtually all long haul trucks being automated in 5 years and all delivery, including taxis, Frito-Lay trucks, mail, and even ambulances being automated within 10 years. How many millions of jobs is that? The next 10 years is going to make the agriculture-to-manufacturing shift look like a walk in the park!

When China's factories are "redundant", what are they going to do with a billion out of work laborers? Will they have an internal revolution of some kind or will they start some wars to keep them occupied?
 
New UBI experiment in Kenya paying 6,000 over 12 years at 1/2 the local wages.

There is a significant difference between short-term experiments in UBI and long-term ones. Hopefully, projects like this one will show a more accurate picture of the mindset of recipients who are receiving UBI long-term.

I think the key to making UBI successful is the removal of restrictions to being productive and earning more money. Yes, we have the picture of welfare recipients hanging out on street corners or watching Oprah and Dr. Phil reruns all day. If they could use UBI to pay for child care, would they then apply themselves to being productive?

I also look forward to the day that "productive" doesn't mean simply working in a j.o.b. I retired early last year at 56, but I wouldn't say that I wasn't productive. I'm maintaining my home, (sailboat), learning to draw, reading for education/pleasure (currently Kevin Kelly's "The Inevitable", and learning español in preparation for sailing to Mexico later this year. Would that be called "selfish productivity"? Is it really that much different from watching misc. TV shows all day when we're all just going to die eventually anyway?

Challenges? Absolutely! I don't like wealth distribution any more than the next conservative libertarian, but I see virtually all long haul trucks being automated in 5 years and all delivery, including taxis, Frito-Lay trucks, mail, and even ambulances being automated within 10 years. How many millions of jobs is that? The next 10 years is going to make the agriculture-to-manufacturing shift look like a walk in the park!

When China's factories are "redundant", what are they going to do with a billion out of work laborers? Will they have an internal revolution of some kind or will they start some wars to keep them occupied?
 
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