When will we know the specs for the P-AWD Model 3?

[daniel]

Thanks for all the thoughts.

Worth it? These aren't value propositions. [...] This is about bragging rights. [...]

I disagree. At least for me. It's about the thrill of acceleration, and it's about merging and passing. If it was important for me to have a car I could brag about I'd never have driven a Zap Xebra as my daily driver for four years. I'd probably still be driving it today but it was so underpowered that it almost could not make it up the hills downtown. And it remained my daily driver until I could get a "proper" EV, which was the Roadster only because that was the first "proper" EV I could get my hands on after waiting six months beyond the promised delivery date for a Nissan Leaf, and still no Leaf in sight.

In the end I was very happy it turned out this way because I love the Roadster. But it's not about bragging rights at all. It's about performance. And knowing the performance figures for the Model 3 will help me decide if it's worth it to me to give up the amazing styling and fun factor of the Roadster for a safer car. Better than 4 seconds zero to sixty in the car's normal mode (i.e. without special preparation) would make that decision easy.

[...] early reservation holders are going to be put in a position of having to choose between ordering one of the "simplified" early builds right away or delaying their order for a later build with more/different options (and possibly risk losing some of the tax credit in the process).

There would be no way for these early reservation holders to make an informed decision in this scenario without information about the options. To put your most loyal and enthusiastic customers in that position would be inexusable IMO.

Exactly! People need information to make an informed decision. It would be a cruel joke to have enticed people to wait in long lines (some over night?) to get in an early reservation, only to find they needed to effectively give up their place in the ordering queue if they want actual specs before choosing which version to order.

Yes, people who want the AWD or P-AWD version will have to wait for it. But having to wait just to get the specs would be hard indeed.

I really want the AP features. But I also want the performance. I could buy what's available and then sell it and trade up when the P-AWD comes out. Or I could just wait for the P-AWD. Or I could decide just to stick with my Roadster until there are superchargers on my routes up to Canada so that I could dump the stinker and go all-electric. To make these decisions I need a test drive (to see if the car feels too big) and I need specs. And the sooner the better, for both.

 

[juanmedina]

Spot on daniel.

We will find out soon enough

 

[DrivingTheFuture]

You guys are forgetting that the model 3 demographic are different than the model S and model X people.

We are not as patient, we have high expectations, we are no as forgiving because we don't have the money just to seat around. I hope Tesla understand that.

We also don't have grammar skills apparently...

 

[JeffK]

#16 was not correct. However 50% of the guesses being correct is notable.

Meh, some of the ones marked correct are safe bets. It's similar to saying someone who is a 7 hours early is "punctual" when in fact, they are not, by definition, punctual. Example #15... the 90D was canceled nearly 3 months before the predicted date. Same thing with #12.
These may be accurate, but precise is another story.

Another example is saying "The Model 3 P75D 0-60 time will be 3.5 seconds or less." Well the heavier P85DL did 0-60 in 2.8 seconds so if the lighter weight P75DL can't do 3.5 seconds then that'd be pretty sad, but the "or less" will keep it accurate even if it's not precise.

 

[mwenn1]

Didn't Elon say in the stockholders meeting that though the options in the configurator would be limited at the start, that the future options would be listed and an estimated timeframe for them given. I would assume that they would provide some specs for those options as well. I do agree that I would like to see the specs in July as well, as I am thinking I will wait for the AWD Performance version as well would be nice to know how long and what I will be waiting for.

 

[Troy]

@mwenn1, you can re-watch it here. The way I understand it, they will list the names of the trim levels that are going to be available later on along with the timeline. It might look like this:

• Model 3 55D/75D: January 2018
• Model 3 P75D: April 2018

Even if they don't release the range and performance numbers for the trim levels that are not available at launch, we can calculate those from the trim levels that are available. I already have a sheet here for range calculations. I just need to adjust that based on the latest data when it becomes available.

 

[rxlawdude]

As long as they offer a choice between two batteries (hypothesized at 55kWh and 75k) at product launch, I'll be very happy. I would like delivery in 2017, and figure that any M3s out there will be in demand no matter their configuration. (I'm getting the M3 with my lovely bride assenting to at least try the M3 for a few months - if she hates it, I'm guessing someone will buy it.)

 

[DrivingTheFuture]

As long as they offer a choice between two batteries (hypothesized at 55kWh and 75k) at product launch, I'll be very happy. I would like delivery in 2017, and figure that any M3s out there will be in demand no matter their configuration. (I'm getting the M3 with my lovely bride assenting to at least try the M3 for a few months - if she hates it, I'm guessing someone will buy it.)

She will love it I'm sure

 

[Dan Detweiler]

As long as they offer a choice between two batteries (hypothesized at 55kWh and 75k) at product launch, I'll be very happy. I would like delivery in 2017, and figure that any M3s out there will be in demand no matter their configuration. (I'm getting the M3 with my lovely bride assenting to at least try the M3 for a few months - if she hates it, I'm guessing someone will buy it.)

I thought they were very clear that ONLY 75k battery, RWD would be available at launch. 1 battery to start with. Did I miss something?

Dan

 

[daniel]

As long as they offer a choice between two batteries (hypothesized at 55kWh and 75k) at product launch, I'll be very happy. I would like delivery in 2017, and figure that any M3s out there will be in demand no matter their configuration. (I'm getting the M3 with my lovely bride assenting to at least try the M3 for a few months - if she hates it, I'm guessing someone will buy it.)

My prediction: She'll love it so much you'll never get to drive it.

 

[Troy]

@Dan Detweiler, yes it will be only RWD initially and most likely only one battery size but they didn't say whether it will be the smaller or the larger battery.

 

[smac]

My view, (and I am biased as I have one on order to replace my S), is that it has to beat the I-Pace.

So: 0-60 in 4 seconds. Price < €75k ($75k?). Charging > 100kWh. AWD, Under 2m (6'6") wide, under 5m (16'6") long. Seats 5 comfortably.

If it doesn't hit these numbers, then everything relies on the SpC benefit, and at c.$75k-ish, the sensible option is to buy a used PxxD S/X with that included for life of the car.

Don't get me wrong JLR and Tesla are unlikely to get into a p!ssing contest, but JLR have laid down a line in the sand. Tesla, being Tesla, can't help themselves but to cross it.

 

[juanmedina]

I think they have to give us some details on the AWD and Performance versions such as price.

Some people that put their reservation early need to know because they might want to wait for the AWD or performance versions to later find out that they can't afford it. They might decide to settle for a cheaper version and they will end up loosing a bunch of places in line possibly delay their car delivery for months.

 

[zenmaster]

Where are people getting $70K for these ~4s 0-60 times. Some kind of extrapolation from other fast accelerating Ev's, because it isn't from the ICE market. Such a minor feature to have such a large price premium.

 

[DrivingTheFuture]

Where are people getting $70K for these ~4s 0-60 times. Some kind of extrapolation from other fast accelerating Ev's, because it isn't from the ICE market. Such a minor feature to have such a large price premium.

The ludicrous model 3 will do 2.5 seconds 0-60 folks... And I had another thread where 10 people put in their bets and stand to win a set of Tesla mugs

 

[FlatSix911]

@mwenn1, you can re-watch it here. The way I understand it, they will list the names of the trim levels that are going to be available later on along with the timeline. It might look like this:

• Model 3 55D/75D: January 2018
• Model 3 P75D: April 2018

Even if they don't release the range and performance numbers for the trim levels that are not available at launch, we can calculate those from the trim levels that are available. I already have a sheet here for range calculations. I just need to adjust that based on the latest data when it becomes available.

Well done!

 

[daniel]

My view, (and I am biased as I have one on order to replace my S), is that it has to beat the I-Pace.

So: 0-60 in 4 seconds. Price < €75k ($75k?). Charging > 100kWh. AWD, Under 2m (6'6") wide, under 5m (16'6") long. Seats 5 comfortably.

If it doesn't hit these numbers, then everything relies on the SpC benefit, and at c.$75k-ish, the sensible option is to buy a used PxxD S/X with that included for life of the car.

Don't get me wrong JLR and Tesla are unlikely to get into a p!ssing contest, but JLR have laid down a line in the sand. Tesla, being Tesla, can't help themselves but to cross it.

I disagree. Tesla's performance car is the Model S. At 2.5 seconds zero to sixty for the P100DL, Tesla has already beaten everyone else. Tesla does not have to make its affordable family car out-perform Jaguar's only EV. Elon has been saying that the Model 3 is not a fancy car or a performance car. He's also made it clear that he's not competing with other EVs on the market. He's competing with gasoline. His cars have to be better than gasoline cars in the same class. ("Better" clearly includes the electric drivetrain, because if you don't compare drivetrains it's hard to justify the price.)

Now, I really want better than 4 seconds to sixty, and I'd love 3.5 seconds to sixty. But it's not about competing with the I-Pace. And the Model 3 would be a success if they never built a performance or AWD model. A lot of us here would be disappointed, but TMC is not a representative sample of Tesla buyers. We're the fanatics. We're the people who will spend years on a chat board extolling, debating, speculating, holding our breath for these cars. Most put in their reservation and went back about their business, put it out of their mind until they get the invitation to order. Most want an affordable EV and would not pay for additional torque. And many more are just waiting and will buy it in a couple of years when they see what a good car it is and reliability figures are in.

It's great that Jaguar is getting into the EV market. But the I-Pace is not a competitor with the Model 3. And personally, given Jaguar's reputation for unreliability, I wouldn't consider a Jag even if it was the small size I really want. (My old '89 Civic was the perfect size for me!)

 

[favo]

I'm thinking the timelines for D and P versions will be published at launch (end of July), but they may only be as precise as 2017Q4 or 2018Q1 initially, since they are dependent on the smoothness of the production ramp, and Tesla won't know how that will go until it actually happens. Elon guessed D by end of 2017 if they are lucky, but probably early 2018. I will guess another 2-3 months after that for P, so probably 2018Q1 or maybe slipping in to Q2.

Not quite sure if they will release all the specs and pricing for D/P versions, or if they even know them for sure at this point. I think there will be more than enough non-P buyers to saturate production for the next 6 months anyhow, so there is no point in keeping it a secret. They may just give an approximate 0-60 time like 4.0s or better.

If I don't get at least ballpark specs/price/timeline, I will wait for sure. The main reason I might not go for the P would be if it's too expensive or too slow to seem worth it. (Or possibly if it's really going to be delayed by a lot.)

I'm hoping for 3.5s 0-60 and base P price of $55K, but I will predict 3.9s and $62K, so I can be pleasantly surprised.

 

[SageBrush]

After all we put down money when we really knew nothing other than the target base price, and we still have the reservations. That really seems patient to me. As for high expectations, about that I'm positive we all agree. We are not waiting (Im)patiently for anything mundane.

I sacrificed about $30 in bank interest in order to be an early buyer and to give a smidgen more than an enthusiastic hand clap to Tesla.

Of course I am patient, and for that amount of money I am not going to be demanding, let alone accuse Tesla of "betrayal" if the roll-out is not exactly to my liking.

<< shakes head sadly at the hubris >>

 

[SageBrush]

I disagree...

You know Daniel, I've come to realize that my posts are superfluous so long as you post.
I'll just kick back and up-vote you posts. They are better written than mine and mirror my opinions so well.

Cheers