When will we know the specs for the P-AWD Model 3?

[R.S]

You guys are forgetting that the model 3 demographic are different than the model S and model X people.

We are not as patient, we have high expectations, we are no as forgiving because we don't have the money just to seat around. I hope Tesla understand that.

When I bought my model S I had very low expectations, I was surprised that I even got a car and not a refrigerator! then I checked and found out refrigerators cost way less than 100k, but my help usually buys things like that...

Now that I'm a Model 3 reservation holder, I totally changed my behavior. If I'm not going to get the most royal treatment possible for that 35k car, I'm gone!

Tesla really needs to understand the difference between the low expectations of luxury car buyers, over the very high expectations of mass market customers.

 

[SageBrush]

When I bought my model S I had very low expectations, I was surprised that I even got a car and not a refrigerator! then I checked and found out refrigerators cost way less than 100k, but my help usually buys things like that...

Now that I'm a Model 3 reservation holder, I totally changed my behavior. If I'm not going to get the most royal treatment possible for that 35k car, I'm gone!

Tesla really needs to understand the difference between the low expectations of luxury car buyers, over the very high expectations of mass market customers.

Thank you! Your post made my day.

 

[Cloxxki]

I could not live with myself NOT gving employees a discount other than extra debt.
I'd want to pay them for their testing and feedback efforts, but also formalize it. Make them do daily reporting in a structured way. Get them to fulfil specific types of drives when-ever they can. Take part in testing event with theirr own cars, to get feedback on all chassis built, no lead time. Could be fun, provide them luggage and different sets of passengers, etc, etc.
Anywy, I'd want them to have the 35K price for a premium car, and they can work for the difference. It won't be years of work, it has to be gotten out of the way QUICK. Get them to press buttons 100 times, etc.

 

[Chewy3]

I could not live with myself NOT gving employees a discount other than extra debt.
I'd want to pay them for their testing and feedback efforts, but also formalize it. Make them do daily reporting in a structured way. Get them to fulfil specific types of drives when-ever they can. Take part in testing event with theirr own cars, to get feedback on all chassis built, no lead time. Could be fun, provide them luggage and different sets of passengers, etc, etc.
Anywy, I'd want them to have the 35K price for a premium car, and they can work for the difference. It won't be years of work, it has to be gotten out of the way QUICK. Get them to press buttons 100 times, etc.

You mean exactly what the employees are being paid to do with the RCs right now?

 

[JeffK]

I could not live with myself NOT gving employees a discount other than extra debt.
I'd want to pay them for their testing and feedback efforts, but also formalize it. Make them do daily reporting in a structured way. Get them to fulfil specific types of drives when-ever they can. Take part in testing event with theirr own cars, to get feedback on all chassis built, no lead time. Could be fun, provide them luggage and different sets of passengers, etc, etc.
Anywy, I'd want them to have the 35K price for a premium car, and they can work for the difference. It won't be years of work, it has to be gotten out of the way QUICK. Get them to press buttons 100 times, etc.

We don't actually know how many factory employees are on the list. It could very well be engineers making six figures who could really have afforded a Model S.
One of the perks the employees get is the faster delivery. Who knows if they are prevented in some way from flipping the car for profit. Even if they don't flip the car, they are guaranteed the full tax credit assuming they make enough money in the first place. In addition, Model 3 has caused a huge bump in the stock price and we know employees get stock options. Any issues with the early models will be fixed promptly and this is not only another perk, but benefits everyone.

SpaceX employees also got early reservations, should they be paid to take early delivery?

Some people, even here on TMC, have said they'd be willing to pay a premium just to cut the line and take early delivery.

 

[daniel]

I can understand not giving employees a discount. Tesla is still a new company that desperately needs cash flow. While we don't really know the break-down of reservations, I know one Tesla employee who is not making a ton of money and who wants a Model 3. I don't know if he put in a reservation. But offering employees first crack is a nice perk that should make those that take advantage of it feel good without costing the company anything. It kind of kills that perk if they then have to wait several months to get the base model. Sure, they'd be the first to get the base model, but still, I think Tesla would do a lot for employee morale by building enough of the base model to satisfy the employees who want it, and then (if it's their policy, which I'm not sure we know) switch to the more profitable trim line for regular orders.

I've flip-flopped on this, but at present I'm not inclined to give up my Roadster until I can get the P-AWD version. So I'll probably be waiting an extra year for mine. It's not as though I'm waiting to go electric.

Do something nice for the employees, Tesla. The happier they are the more diligent they'll be and the fewer mistakes there'll be on our cars. (I actually think Tesla should sell the cars at cost to the employees, with the condition that if they sell the car before 5 years they have to reimburse the company for the difference.)

 

[Cloxxki]

Before, I thought that surely Tesla would make the most of the 2170 cells, and squueze in 100kWh into Model 3. The 7.7% longer cells (not taking any floor space), and the increased density should make that very doable on a slightly smaller car. But we're now looking at a 70-75kWh "big" pack.

With a smaller, lighter car, 100kWh, I was hoping we'd see really impressive track performance, better 0-60 and better lap times, less overheating issues. But it seems now that the 2170 cells are about all cheap, and Tesla didn't do much to the chemistry to speed up (dis)charge rate. If the current 18650's are discharged up to ~5C, it seems 2170 will do roughly (total uneducated guess, sue me) some 4C. Peak output power could be as low as 280kW then, great but not "ludicrous". And have we not heard of a 300kW invertor being used? If they deem 70kWh enough for range, and the inverter can only handle so much, why add cells? You can for "ludicrous mode", did Elon promise, but with Model S going low-2 second to 60mph, will Model 3 even dip under 3? I am starting to doubt it. Plenty for anyone of course, had Tesla not pre-existed.

So I'm a bit bummed for now. Perhaps Tesla is doing the smart thing rather than the awesome thing this time. Probably sensible. The 0-60 stuff is nonsense to me in terms of owning or driving on the streets, but wonderful from an engineering standpoint. A (by volume) so much smaller battery would be a let down. 100kW in that smaller car, range over 400 miles, how awesome would that be? And, if the chemisty doesn't doanything (yet) to make the most of upcoming higher speed CCS chargers, or Superchargers...it's just not going to be the greatest road trip car it could have been. Yes, Model S is for that, biut poor people travel also. 300 mi is enough to do longg stints between charges, but the charges are I fear going to be slower (mph) than Model S, even the 2012 one. Despite (because) the new cells and lower consumption of the smaller car.

What I think many people want from Tesla is a super-hot hatch. A P100D, downsized, in size, price but not performance. Hundreds of kgs lighter than Model S, same peak power, lower consumption, bettter performance all around. It would be at least $30K cheaper to produce, and if Tesla cared enough, they'd make 100kWh fit. Do Evo type buyers care for boot space? Stick a wing on it, offer cooler (less aero) wheels, stock sporty stripes, and it will sell like crazy. Leverage that GT Electric vibe about to go viral.

 

[ummgood]

Don't forget that if someone cannot afford a 42k car over a 35k car then most likely they don't make enough to get the 7500 tax credit either.

 

[R.S]

Before, I thought that surely Tesla would make the most of the 2170 cells, and squueze in 100kWh into Model 3. The 7.7% longer cells (not taking any floor space), and the increased density should make that very doable on a slightly smaller car. But we're now looking at a 70-75kWh "big" pack.

With a smaller, lighter car, 100kWh, I was hoping we'd see really impressive track performance, better 0-60 and better lap times, less overheating issues. But it seems now that the 2170 cells are about all cheap, and Tesla didn't do much to the chemistry to speed up (dis)charge rate. If the current 18650's are discharged up to ~5C, it seems 2170 will do roughly (total uneducated guess, sue me) some 4C. Peak output power could be as low as 280kW then, great but not "ludicrous". And have we not heard of a 300kW invertor being used? If they deem 70kWh enough for range, and the inverter can only handle so much, why add cells? You can for "ludicrous mode", did Elon promise, but with Model S going low-2 second to 60mph, will Model 3 even dip under 3? I am starting to doubt it. Plenty for anyone of course, had Tesla not pre-existed.

So I'm a bit bummed for now. Perhaps Tesla is doing the smart thing rather than the awesome thing this time. Probably sensible. The 0-60 stuff is nonsense to me in terms of owning or driving on the streets, but wonderful from an engineering standpoint. A (by volume) so much smaller battery would be a let down. 100kW in that smaller car, range over 400 miles, how awesome would that be? And, if the chemisty doesn't doanything (yet) to make the most of upcoming higher speed CCS chargers, or Superchargers...it's just not going to be the greatest road trip car it could have been. Yes, Model S is for that, biut poor people travel also. 300 mi is enough to do longg stints between charges, but the charges are I fear going to be slower (mph) than Model S, even the 2012 one. Despite (because) the new cells and lower consumption of the smaller car.

What I think many people want from Tesla is a super-hot hatch. A P100D, downsized, in size, price but not performance. Hundreds of kgs lighter than Model S, same peak power, lower consumption, bettter performance all around. It would be at least $30K cheaper to produce, and if Tesla cared enough, they'd make 100kWh fit. Do Evo type buyers care for boot space? Stick a wing on it, offer cooler (less aero) wheels, stock sporty stripes, and it will sell like crazy. Leverage that GT Electric vibe about to go viral.

A super powerful but light car, that throws away anything that you don't need to go fast.

Two doors, small boot, lightweight, superb handling.

What you want, is the next gen Roadster, not the Model 3.(Maybe with M3 pricing, but there are enough that would pay serious money for that, so that won't happen)

 

[Cloxxki]

A super powerful but light car, that throws away anything that you don't need to go fast.

Two doors, small boot, lightweight, superb handling.

What you want, is the next gen Roadster, not the Model 3.(Maybe with M3 pricing, but there are enough that would pay serious money for that, so that won't happen)

Of course, many were hoping to get the very same Ludicrous experience at half off. Seems you can get the L for a nice upcharge, but it's not going to be the same.
I'm afraid a true 2-seater supercar is too far down the Tesla prority list. Great to tease us with, though.
The battery tech they need to make a light roadster successor to happen with really REALLY fast acceleration, could be used for future P cars. I just don't see 2170's in the present spec make a proper maximum plaid car work.

 

[R.S]

Of course, many were hoping to get the very same Ludicrous experience at half off. Seems you can get the L for a nice upcharge, but it's not going to be the same.
I'm afraid a true 2-seater supercar is too far down the Tesla prority list. Great to tease us with, though.
The battery tech they need to make a light roadster successor to happen with really REALLY fast acceleration, could be used for future P cars. I just don't see 2170's in the present spec make a proper maximum plaid car work.

I don't know and I wouldn't expect anyone at Tesla giving us an answer to that, either.

But I think it would have been a big mistake, if Tesla would have thought too much, about what the Model 3 performance version needs to achieve. Their main goal here is building a more accessible electric premium sedan. If they made it in a way, that a supercar beating version would have been possible, would have had a negative impact on the mainstream variants.

The cells would have been more expensive, they would have needed to keep more space for motors and batteries, that would have been unused in the base versions. They maybe would have needed to increase the size of the radiator, to keep the motors cool in a race, which would have had a negative impact on aerodynamics.

Now of course the Model 3 will be a compromise, it will still be powerful, but not as powerful as it could have been. That's what the Model S is for and at some point the torch will go to the Roadster. But compromising the Model 3 even more, just to make 5% of their customers more happy, isn't something I would have done.

 

[daniel]

A super powerful but light car, that throws away anything that you don't need to go fast.

Two doors, small boot, lightweight, superb handling.

What you want, is the next gen Roadster, not the Model 3.(Maybe with M3 pricing, but there are enough that would pay serious money for that, so that won't happen)

Yep. The Model 3 is not Tesla's supercar. The Model 3 is Tesla's affordable car. If the P100DL Model S is too big/heavy, the Roadster is an enormously fun car, and while the P100DL S will leave the Roadster in its dust, the Roadster is no slouch. Few other cars on the road can touch it off the line.

But high performance has a high price tag and the Roadster ain't cheap. And the Roadster Mk II will likely cost even more. Of course, with all Tesla has learned, the Roadster Mk II will be dangerously quick. Maximum Plaid is going to have to come with a health warning: "This much acceleration can damage your internal organs."

A few of us want the Model 3 with Roadster-level acceleration, and some want the handling that AWD provides. But the purpose and concept behind the Model 3 is to be affordable for the general driving public, in line with Elon's vision of electric transportation for everybody.

 

[SageBrush]

Don't forget that if someone cannot afford a 42k car over a 35k car then most likely they don't make enough to get the 7500 tax credit either.

How do you figure ?

 

[kaffine]

We are not as patient, we have high expectations, we are no as forgiving because we don't have the money just to seat around. I hope Tesla understand that.

They had 115k people reserve a car without even knowing what it looked like. The current set of reservation holders are not typical car buyers. We are Tesla fans and have shown we are willing to wait for one. While some will be ultra picky most will overlook issues unless they are major.

How do you figure ?

Looking at last years taxes I will barely qualify for the full $7500. I am looking to spend up to $60k. If I am just barely paying enough in taxes to get the full amount but am willing to spend $60k on the car those that are struggling to cover the difference between $35k and $42k likely do not have a tax liability to get the full amount. Granted it could be I am willing to spend more of my income on a car than others. Maybe most people looking to buy a 35k car make a lot more than I do and will easily qualify for the full amount I just don't see it.


I think they will say the PxxD model will be under x.y seconds 0-60 however I don't think they will have the full spec until closer to delivery. From what I understand the S and X PxxD have had software updates to increase the performance. Tesla is likely going to be tweaking the PxxD between now and when they start delivering them so, I would expect them to have slightly better performance when they are being delivered than what they have now.

 

[SageBrush]

Looking at last years taxes I will barely qualify for the full $7500

There is a lot more variation in taxes than the tax return of ONE citizen.

For one example that covers a lot of people,
The single taxpayer with a standard deduction and personal exemption:
About $61,000 incomes results in ~ $7,500 federal tax. Figure about $4,000 take-home

One other example, a two person household filing jointly with combined income:
About $71,000 combined income results in $7,500 federal tax. Figure under $5,000 take-home.

Last example, a two adult and one young child filing jointly:
About $77,000 combined income results in $7,500 federal tax. Figure $5,300 take-home.

 

[ummgood]

How do you figure ?

The argument was about lower income Tesla workers (I saw engineers mentioned once) but I envisioned this being people who are working showrooms/service centers/factory workers... The other argument I routinely saw posted was that they should release the 35k priced car early for these people so they could get the car for 35k - 7.5k in tax incentives to help these guys out. I think if the people make so little money that they could afford a 27.5k car but not a 34.5k car (42k - 7.5k) then they are probably in a tax situation where the full 7.5k credit will not be available to them anyway.

This is my thought on the argument and why I brought it up because releasing a 35k car at the beginning to help people who might not be able to afford a 42k version in the assumption that they'll get the full 7.5k credit is probably an incorrect assumption. Of course every tax situation is different and I can't assume to know if someone will get a full credit or not. I just was bringing it up as a talking point that you can't assume that those who would need a cheaper car can qualify for a large portion of the credit. If that is the case why can't those people wait until the credit is 1/2 what it is now since it won't effect what they actually get back and let the people who can buy the 42k+ car and qualify for the full credit go first.

 

[R.S]

The argument was about lower income Tesla workers (I saw engineers mentioned once) but I envisioned this being people who are working showrooms/service centers/factory workers... The other argument I routinely saw posted was that they should release the 35k priced car early for these people so they could get the car for 35k - 7.5k in tax incentives to help these guys out. I think if the people make so little money that they could afford a 27.5k car but not a 34.5k car (42k - 7.5k) then they are probably in a tax situation where the full 7.5k credit will not be available to them anyway.

This is my thought on the argument and why I brought it up because releasing a 35k car at the beginning to help people who might not be able to afford a 42k version in the assumption that they'll get the full 7.5k credit is probably an incorrect assumption. Of course every tax situation is different and I can't assume to know if someone will get a full credit or not. I just was bringing it up as a talking point that you can't assume that those who would need a cheaper car can qualify for a large portion of the credit. If that is the case why can't those people wait until the credit is 1/2 what it is now since it won't effect what they actually get back and let the people who can buy the 42k+ car and qualify for the full credit go first.

Why would Tesla want to "help" anyone, besides maybe their employees and I don't think everyone of those will end up getting one of those first batch Model 3s. And Tesla could still discount those, since they are helping to test the car.

Tesla needs to help itself first. And exclusively selling the lowest margin car, really isn't helping. Ramping up production will be costly and every car will need more quality control and production time, than once they run at full speed. So making additional profits on every car will help ramping up more quickly, which in turn helps getting more cars out to customers, before the incentives run out.

The incentives won't stop once they hit 200k, but slowly phase out over the next 1.5 years(if timed correctly), with the first two quarters(one of those is the quarter where 200k is reached) still getting full incentives, which lower to 50% for the next two quarters and then 25% in the final two. So there will be plenty of time to get some kind of incentive, even on a lower spec Model 3. And the higher the production rate is, once the 200,000th car is sold, the more people will get it.

IMO it makes more sense for Tesla to push people to spend more on their M3, than they initially planned, just to make sure they will get their tax credit. And most who couldn't afford a $37,000 car, instead of a $27,500 car, will not be eligible for the full tax credit anyways.

And I guess many people will want to spend more, if they fear the tax credits won't be there, if they wait for the base car. A couple of well placed Elon tweets and even more will question, if waiting is the best idea.

 

[SageBrush]

I think if the people make so little money that they could afford a 27.5k car but not a 34.5k car (42k - 7.5k) then they are probably in a tax situation where the full 7.5k credit will not be available to them anyway.

Saying "I think" again is not of any use to me in trying to understand your reasoning.

 

[ummgood]

Why would Tesla want to "help" anyone, besides maybe their employees and I don't think everyone of those will end up getting one of those first batch Model 3s. And Tesla could still discount those, since they are helping to test the car.

Tesla needs to help itself first. And exclusively selling the lowest margin car, really isn't helping. Ramping up production will be costly and every car will need more quality control and production time, than once they run at full speed. So making additional profits on every car will help ramping up more quickly, which in turn helps getting more cars out to customers, before the incentives run out.

The incentives won't stop once they hit 200k, but slowly phase out over the next 1.5 years(if timed correctly), with the first two quarters(one of those is the quarter where 200k is reached) still getting full incentives, which lower to 50% for the next two quarters and then 25% in the final two. So there will be plenty of time to get some kind of incentive, even on a lower spec Model 3. And the higher the production rate is, once the 200,000th car is sold, the more people will get it.

IMO it makes more sense for Tesla to push people to spend more on their M3, than they initially planned, just to make sure they will get their tax credit. And most who couldn't afford a $37,000 car, instead of a $27,500 car, will not be eligible for the full tax credit anyways.

And I guess many people will want to spend more, if they fear the tax credits won't be there, if they wait for the base car. A couple of well placed Elon tweets and even more will question, if waiting is the best idea.

I agree with your reasoning.

 

[ummgood]

Saying "I think" again is not of any use to me in trying to understand your reasoning.

I was spitting out an off the cuff thought. Frankly I don't have a clue how each person will fall and I can't claim to know that. If you have a counter thought I would be more than happy to read it.