When will we likely see a 4680 Model S?

[Venom]

I'm thinking of trading in my Model Y for the Model S Plaid, but I want to keep the car for at least 3 years before the 4680 starts shipping out with the S. When will we likely start seeing 4680 Model S Plaid in production?

If it's within 2-3 years then I'll probably hold off since it'll be a huge all around performance increase

I already have a Model S plaid ordered with the $10k discount because i ordered it before the price increase

 

[SilverGS]

I'm thinking of trading in my Model Y for the Model S Plaid, but I want to keep the car for at least 3 years before the 4680 starts shipping out with the S. When will we likely start seeing 4680 Model S Plaid in production?

If it's within 2-3 years then I'll probably hold off since it'll be a huge all around performance increase

I'd venture to say 2 years

 

[Venom]

I'd venture to say 2 years

That's my guess as well. I might just keep unmatching until the 4680 comes out... lol

 

[ucmndd]

If it's within 2-3 years then I'll probably hold off since it'll be a huge all around performance increase

I don’t think there’s any particular reason to believe that, unless by performance you mean “range”.

 

[Venom]

I don’t think there’s any particular reason to believe that, unless by performance you mean “range”.

Well Elon did say the new cells would have higher peak output which would lead to quicker acceleration. They’d also result in more range.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Nobody knows.

 

[zanary]

Well Elon did say the new cells would have higher peak output which would lead to quicker acceleration. They’d also result in more range.

Each 4680 cell will have 5x the energy, +16% range, and 6x the output.

 

[Yanniz]

Who knows

 

[PCMc]

You need to be careful about taken differences at the individual cell level and immediately applying them to what the overall output of the pack. I also do not understand the statement of 5x energy content and 16% on range. They both can't be statements at the cell level. I'm wondering if the range number is implying how they would intend to package different size cells into a pack, but then you need to look at how they define the pack whether looking at it from a overall size/dimensions perspective or weight perspective.

Bottom line, will not know the potential difference in overall vehicle capability until it's announced. Until then it's all speculation.

 

[florchak]

Is kinda like Porsche GT3 vs GT3RS to me (which I own). I wanted next level performance mainly in Active Aero, Brakes, Looks and range was very important at 520. Now I get a car that looks like everyone elses but says PLAID in little letters and goes EPA 348 miles with 21" wheels. I bet a Long Range car with 1 foot roll out is 2.8 sec 0-60 where on street conditions plaid is 2.2 ish. I read a post that Plaids 0-60 is 1 foot rollout and Long range is no 1 ft rollout, Tesla game there. The Plaid I think will pull harder from 70 to 160 but that is not as important to me. I ordered a beast on battery day the minute Elon said you can "order now". From what I see now the Long Range is a deal and with 10K tax credits coming in a few months even better! I heard that will cap at cars over $80,000 so Plaid wont get that $10K credit either.

 

[Cal1]

I'd venture to say 2 years

I agree. I think they'll probably be battery constrained by the truck and semi for those 4680's

 

[SilverGS]

I agree. I think they'll probably be battery constrained by the truck and semi for those 4680's

Also keep in mind that even when the 4680's are being manufactured in volume, the Model S chassis has to be redesigned to accommodate this new form factor as it will be a structural battery. I would guess that's easily another 6+ months to develop the new chassis and the required testing/certification. I'd say we won't see a 4680 battery in a Model S until 2024 at a minimum.

I can't imagine that Tesla will prioritize the chassis redo of the Model S any time sooner considering the other higher priority projects they have on the go (bring two new factories online, CT launch, redesigning the Model Y chassis to accommodate the 4680 battery etc)

 

[Krash]

...the Model S chassis has to be redesigned to accommodate this new form factor...I'd say we won't see a 4680 battery in a Model S until 2024 at a minimum...

I doubt that Tesla has to redesign the chassis. Tesla knows how big the 4680 tabless assemblies need to be. I bet Tesla padded the 2170s or 18650s to ship in the 2021 refresh megacastings that they created for the 4680s. If we don't see the bigger cells before 2024 it will only be because all those cells are spoken for in the cybertruck, semi and roadster.

 

[SilverGS]

I doubt that Tesla has to redesign the chassis. Tesla knows how big the 4680 tabless assemblies need to be. I bet Tesla padded the 2170s or 18650s to ship in the 2021 refresh megacastings that they created for the 4680s. If we don't see the bigger cells before 2024 it will only be because all those cells are spoken for in the cybertruck, semi and roadster.

So are you saying that the 4680 will be added to the S and it will not be a structural battery as was explained on Battery day? How is that even possible?

 

[Krash]

So are you saying that the 4680 will be added to the S and it will not be a structural battery as was explained on Battery day? How is that even possible?

No, I'm betting that the redesign to accommodate the 4680 structural battery already happened. Maybe whatever the headroom is if they are using 2170s or 18650s, that extra space is some sort of structural filler? In any case, no way they do another redesign.

 

[SilverGS]

No, I'm betting that the redesign to accommodate the 4680 structural battery already happened. Maybe whatever the headroom is if they are using 2170s or 18650s, that extra space is some sort of structural filler? In any case, no way they do another redesign.

Honestly I have my doubts that the chassis has already been redesigned. It would be nice if we could get that confirmed officially.

 

[Krash]

Honestly I have my doubts that the chassis has already been redesigned. It would be nice if we could get that confirmed officially.

Might depend on ones definition of "redesigned". Acording to Teslarati's reporting of Ray4Tesla on Twitter, the now shipping S has two piece megacastings front and back, while the Y started out with two piece in the back and then advanced to one piece in back, the Y hasn't gotten a megacasting in front and the 3 has yet to get a megacasting either end. When Monro sells enough bumper stickers we'll know.

 

[dfwatt]

You need to be careful about taken differences at the individual cell level and immediately applying them to what the overall output of the pack. I also do not understand the statement of 5x energy content and 16% on range. They both can't be statements at the cell level. I'm wondering if the range number is implying how they would intend to package different size cells into a pack, but then you need to look at how they define the pack whether looking at it from a overall size/dimensions perspective or weight perspective.

Bottom line, will not know the potential difference in overall vehicle capability until it's announced. Until then it's all speculation.

Exactly. It makes no sense that a cell has five times the energy and 16% more range. I suspect what they mean is that the big cell has five times as much energy as the old 2170 cell and that the equivalent weight of cells has 16% more range. But who knows. It's kind of cryptic when they release this sort of confusing mishegoss.

I don't think we'll see 4860 cells in anything other than the Model Y in the United States for quite a while. It's not a trivial task to redesign the battery pack for a much bigger cell particularly given how they're going to change the cooling system and glue the cells together. Given that this new battery pack is structural and it's designed to interface with single stamping structures for the front and back end of the vehicle, all of those changes probably have to take place at the same time on any given line. That's a big deal.

 

[cdnev]

I'm thinking of trading in my Model Y for the Model S Plaid, but I want to keep the car for at least 3 years before the 4680 starts shipping out with the S. When will we likely start seeing 4680 Model S Plaid in production?

If it's within 2-3 years then I'll probably hold off since it'll be a huge all around performance increase

I already have a Model S plaid ordered with the $10k discount because i ordered it before the price increase

Here's a recent article (Sept. 1 / 2021) that may or may not help:

Is Elon Musk Back In “Production Hell” With Tesla’s 4680 Battery?