When will you change your Tesla?

[Dasher]

I believe that the average length of car ownership in the UK is about 4 years. Having had my Model 3 for 15 months, and with the refreshed model coming, I found myself thinking about what has made me change cars during my life. I think there were three main reasons

1) trading up to a better car, when I could afford it
2) getting rid of a car which might soon cost me a lot in repair or maintenance
3) changing a car just because I got a bit bored with it!

Owning a Tesla, these all seem a bit unlikely. I doubt whether a significantly 'better car' will be coming along in the next few years; I don't anticipate a major increase in potential repair costs due to age, and I can't imagine being bored with a car which keeps improving. Perhaps I will keep my Tesla for a very much longer time than average.

If generally true, this may change the characteristics of the second-hand car market, and possibly reduce the rate of depreciation (which would be a good thing). The churn rate of car ownership may reduce to being much closer to that of houses.

What do others think?

 

[ACarneiro]

I bought mine with the expectation that I shall keep it for about 10 years at least (that’s how long I usually keep my cars).
I worry that the car will start rotting around the power train, if I’m honest, but I guess only time will fell...

 

[Roy W.]

I believe that the average length of car ownership in the UK is about 4 years. Having had my Model 3 for 15 months, and with the refreshed model coming, I found myself thinking about what has made me change cars during my life. I think there were three main reasons

1) trading up to a better car, when I could afford it
2) getting rid of a car which might soon cost me a lot in repair or maintenance
3) changing a car just because I got a bit bored with it!

Owning a Tesla, these all seem a bit unlikely. I doubt whether a significantly 'better car' will be coming along in the next few years; I don't anticipate a major increase in potential repair costs due to age, and I can't imagine being bored with a car which keeps improving. Perhaps I will keep my Tesla for a very much longer time than average.

If generally true, this may change the characteristics of the second-hand car market, and possibly reduce the rate of depreciation (which would be a good thing). The churn rate of car ownership may reduce to being much closer to that of houses.

What do others think?

My car ownership time has varied between 3 months and 9 years, but with an average of about 1.75 years, which is much lower than I was expecting.

I’m also planning to keep the Model 3 for a long time, as long as it remains reliable and cheap to run and maintain.

 

[Elsig]

I bought my last month (not knowing the refresh was coming!!)

I have a 72 month Tesla loan and plan to get a Y in about 3 years time once Berlin has been producing them for about a year. I have 2 young kids and in a few years we need more space

If it wasn't for the kids I'd probably keep my sr+ until there was a significant benefit of a new m3m Heatpump is not enough to make me trade in. It would need to be something significant....but I don't yet know what that would be.

 

[Gasman23]

My plan is to keep this one long term. Batteries may become denser and deliver better range but the charging network almost makes that a non issue

 

[Tes1aFanBoy]

I also plan on keeping mine up to 10 years if viable. Need to get it first though! Ordered a LR on 27th Oct so touch and go what side of Xmas it will fall.

 

[Rustybkts]

My SR+ is a long term keeper. Even without the heat pump improvement the range is way more than my daily needs and the Supercharger network allows long distance driving.

I haven't used any other Rapid in 8,000 miles yet drove round Scotlands NC500 recently surviving on destination chargers and 13A sockets when above Fort William, partly because not one of the Charge Scotland Rapids on the West and North coast actually worked!

Touch screen failures, card reader failures and CCS comms failures along with incomplete Rapid installs/shut down made a mockery of the whole deal.
I breathed a sigh of relief as I reached Glasgow's Superchargers on my return journey.
The Supercharger network is such a major selling point that if I was buying for company use with a lot of driving involved, I most certainly would not go to any other supplier.

 

[Medved_77]

I'll be keeping an eye on the depreciation curve and trying to forecast when the most optimal time to sell and upgrade is, which may mean buying a banger in the interim.

My concern is given the rate of advancements in EV technology, the value could plummet long before the battery warranty expires.

 

[Type2]

I originally intended to keep my M3P for two years, but might extend that by another year to September 2022. By then we should have an idea of what will be coming out of the Berlin factory (I don’t want another poorly built American car), and also there should be much more choice if I don’t want another Tesla.

 

[pgkevet]

I bought my S thinking the 3 would take longer to be available - not that I think I'd have liked a 3, the S is too minimalist as it is (for me). The gloss of ownership took about 6 mths to wear off. It's a nice car to drive but the computerisations and nonsense toys and things that just aren't right and prolonged promises and delays all take away from that. I've upgraded to HW3 but that will be redundant all too soon and Tesa service distance and aggros, the need soon to upgrade again to a CCS charge port (if we ever see the back of COVID and it's worth taking longer journeys)....
I had intended my S to be a jumping off point for the Roadster but with the on-going delays of that, the depreciation of my S, what the heck happens when the 4 year warranty is up etc...being expected to pay again for FSD... I can easily see me going back to a more modest practical vehicle with less tech so long as I can find one I fit in. Withut a reliable non-tesla charger network it may well be ICE and wait for the EV tech and networks to mature.
My other car is 27 yrs old, still fun to drive but parts getting hard to find. Even blowing the engine up 4 years ago and having it totally rebuilt cost less than a year's S depreciation, insurance is way cheaper, can be serviced.fixed locally. the A/C still works fine and has never been touched whereas Tesla want me to have a new dessicant pack on the S for over £150 because they've designed stuff so the system needs stripping and regassing to do it every few years - Crazy.
4 sec 0-60 is fun but a car is really just transport and there's cheap stuff in the fast lane going faster than I'm prepared to risk my licence....

 

[Gasman23]

I'll be keeping an eye on the depreciation curve and trying to forecast when the most optimal time to sell and upgrade is, which may mean buying a banger in the interim.

My concern is given the rate of advancements in EV technology, the value could plummet long before the battery warranty expires.

What major advancements do you see? Bigger batteries aren’t essential with the supercharger network and more performance is arguably unnecessary for road use. Fsd seems way off and would carry a hefty premium when it’s finished according to Tesla’s price model.

 

[MadScientist]

I usually keep my cars for at least 5 years, so unless my Model 3 becomes a PITA to run, I’ll probably keep to that schedule.

 

[GRiLLA]

I'll be switching once the Model 3 are starting to be built with the new 4850 structural batteries and the next AutoPilot v4 CPU, probably a couple of years time. I'm expecting this to give me
* A battery that is forecast to last over a million miles, I've already had 5% degradation on the current
* Faster charging, using the 250W available on v3 SuC for longer
* Keep tracking the latest capabilities in Tesla FSD and Media software
I'll also move from LR up to a P

I kept my last car 8 years, and I've never replaced a car with the same manufacturer or model before, certainly can't imagine changing to anything else so far.

 

[seadog]

When it was ICE I usually bought new/pre-registered and kept for 4-5 years, I sold at this point as I felt less time meant too much of a depreciation hit and if I kept longer it meant you had too large an amount to put towards a replacement. It meant you had a year or two without warranty but I was fairly lucky and selling at this age and mileage avoided any major expensive work like timing belts, clutches, etc.

I was a bit disappointed after the refresh was announced after having the 3 for a short period of time but knowing I got the grant that is unavailable now did make up for it a bit. I will wait a few years too and see how the market is.

 

[Medved_77]

What major advancements do you see? Bigger batteries aren’t essential with the supercharger network and more performance is arguably unnecessary for road use. Fsd seems way off and would carry a hefty premium when it’s finished according to Tesla’s price model.

Mostly the ability of newer batteries to charge at a higher rate for longer, without the maximum charge speed tapering off so early.

 

[nxsynjs]

I've only just got it I'll take a view in 3 years time I think. I suspect EV's are going to be like smart phones where in 2008 where they rapidly evolve in both functionality, power and price so for me it makes sense to see where we are then. I got a great deal on my M3P (basically got FSD for free on a low mile inventory car) so depreciation is less of a factor.

Since the battery day improvements are 2-3 years away me keeping it and waiting to see what that brings seem to me the right thing atm, by that time we should know what the 25K smaller tesla/model Y will be and if worst comes to worst I'll just keep the car for a while longer(Oh the hardship ).

 

[Beej4]

My average keep is around 4-5yrs so the 4yr lease I have with my M3P fits that timeframe.
Who knows what technological advances will be made in 4yrs but I believe they will be quite substantial given the rate of progress of BEVs just in the last few years. Also, mainstream manufacturers are (finally) getting on the bandwagon so I see a lot of choice with more advanced tech in 4yrs time. I'm hoping that will provide me with a (good) headache of choosing my next car. So far, my Tesla has surpassed my expectations so I really hope they will be ahead of the game come 4yrs.

 

[DJP31]

I bought my first S in March '17 on a 4 year PCP. I change cars every 3 years or so. I expected higher depreciation and better competition and have been wrong on both. I had a high balloon payment but sold the car with some equity, and there is no competition to speak of.

Consequently I'm now in a new S Long Range and expecting to keep this for 3 to 4 years. Never say never but I cannot see any prospect of going back to ICE, the driving experience is poor in comparison. I've been disappointed in Tesla's corporate stance on a number of things and like the look of the Audi Etron GT. Audi of course are tarred with the VW dieselgate brush so in truth suspect I'd come off the moral highground if the car was good enough .

 

[MacPaul]

My plan has always been to have the 2 year lease and then go back to more modest motoring. Love the car but it’s just too much (for me) to spend.

Still got another 12 months but I think at this stage I won’t be getting another Tesla.

One things for sure, I won’t be going back to ICE. Just hope there’s something more affordable around.

 

[tsh2]

When I move to France. Wasn't really planning on changing it till it fell apart, but plans are probably different now.