That is not entirely accurate, either. The Model X that was seen in the mules (which was pretty much same as released) was actually quite different from the prototype of 2012 that was the public face of Model X until the release in late Q3 2015. The 2015 mules had different wheelbase, different falcon wings (in both size, shape and tech), different rear with adaptive spoiler, different greenhouse proportions, different bonnet and differently shaped sides compared to the 2012 prototype. Of course the nose was redone too, though it was masked the longest on the mules.
Where you are correct, though, is that a lot of people said Tesla would never drive such a lightly masked Model X production version in public and reveal most of the final design that way. But in fact that is exactly what Tesla did. In the end there were no fake body panels or such on most of the car, what was seen in Model X mules in early 2015 shipped as the final Model X in late 2015. The mules sported the final design with some small masking especially on the front and some missing parts depending on the mule.
So, if this is any guide, when those Model 3 mules are finally witnessed, they would be showing the final Model 3 production design. But of course Tesla may change strategies, who knows.
We started seeing Model X mules on the roads around 9 months before sales start. And of course it was more like 12-15 months before volume deliveries with Model X... I agree, if Model 3 is on time, we really should start seeing them around now.
