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Where do you think Tesla's FSD will be 12 months from now (April 2020)?

Where do you think Tesla's FSD will be 12 months from now (April 2020)

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FSD level whatever in a year? Very skeptical of that. Neither the basic Summon nor AutoPark features work for me at all let alone reliably and these have been available since I got my Model 3 10 months ago. Many firmware updates later and now on 12.1.1 they still don’t. Given those facts as the basis for my opinion, I extrapolate that to mean absolutely no way FSD at Level 3 or beyond is going to happen for all of us who have and will purchase it in any sort of reliable (all the time, every time) fashion. I might be more optimistic if the fora (forums?) were not loaded with folks having issues with long-delivered yet unreliable features. Couple that with new problems constantly delivered with new firmware, Level-3-and-beyond FSD in a year is so unlikely.
 
FSD level whatever in a year? Very skeptical of that. Neither the basic Summon nor AutoPark features work for me at all let alone reliably and these have been available since I got my Model 3 10 months ago. Many firmware updates later and now on 12.1.1 they still don’t. Given those facts as the basis for my opinion, I extrapolate that to mean absolutely no way FSD at Level 3 or beyond is going to happen for all of us who have and will purchase it in any sort of reliable (all the time, every time) fashion. I might be more optimistic if the fora (forums?) were not loaded with folks having issues with long-delivered yet unreliable features. Couple that with new problems constantly delivered with new firmware, Level-3-and-beyond FSD in a year is so unlikely.

You are forgetting about AP3. One our current cars with AP2, yes, they are far from FSD. But on AP3, as we saw from the Autonomy Investor Day, it can do a lot more and FSD is possible.
 
Most telling that it is AP and just not my driving, however, is whenever my kids are in the car and they hear the AP chimes they groan because they know the ride is about to get choppy, due to, sudden phantom braking, the car suddenly speeding up and right away slowing down as cars leave our lane and after the gap created traffic is already slowed down ahead, our car slowing down as cars cut into our lane (because we are not following close enough), reacting to lane merges and exits, jerky auto lane changes, etc.

Yeah, my wife hates it since it's not a smooth ride unless you're on a mostly deserted highway without a lot of truck lanes. I can see where it would be handy in stop and go traffic, but that's not a situation I face often.

Regarding the truck lane thing, I've noticed that it works better on WV interstates than MD interstates. It has to do with whether there are road markings (dashed lines) at entrance/exit ramps and the start of truck lanes. MD leaves stretches without dashed lines and the car goes too far left and then tries to correct rapidly back to the right when it sees the new lane line begin which it does most of the time in a jerky fashion or it gives up. In the mountains, there are a lot of truck lanes...
 
@S4WRXTTCS Did the stock market finally get you and you’re short TSLA? ;)

I'm actually a long TSLA, but I don't currently own stock. So only in pretend money for right now.

With real money I'm waiting to see how far the dip goes.

When it dips under 200 I'll make a series of buys (depending on which direction it goes).

I have to get the timing right between the time of pain, and the time of growth (pickup, the Y).

I see a lot of potential in 2-3 years. And, this is without needing FSD to work to Level 5.
 
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I see a lot of potential in 2-3 years. And, this is without needing FSD to work to Level 5.

That’s the crazy thing, right? There was no need for public ”Level 5 capable hardware” nonsense in 2016. Even if one thinks some of it was necessary on April 22nd, 2019 to keep the pain from getting too much (or even if one believes it was accurate), there was no need for it in 2016 (and it was not accurate back then). Tesla’s future was not dependent on autonomous driving back then at all, Autopilot was a minor blip on a radar filled mostly with Model 3 sized chaff.

Let’s hope 2019 is different on the Level 5 front because for whatever reason the promise was just repeated again.

Frankly I think the whole of Autopilot 2 story (2016 to present) may have hurt Tesla far more than it has helped.
 
That’s the crazy thing, right? There was no need for public ”Level 5 capable hardware” nonsense in 2016. Even if one thinks some of it was necessary on April 22nd, 2019 to keep the pain from getting too much (or even if one believes it was accurate), there was no need for it in 2016 (and it was not accurate back then). Tesla’s future was not dependent on autonomous driving back then at all, Autopilot was a minor blip on a radar filled mostly with Model 3 sized chaff.

Let’s hope 2019 is different on the Level 5 front because for whatever reason the promise was just repeated again.

Frankly I think the whole of Autopilot 2 story (2016 to present) may have hurt Tesla far more than it has helped.

I remember having arguments with people on here about FSD back in late 2016.

Where they felt like Tesla had to do it in order to create the appeal, but I countered with the fact that it would do them more harm than good. A lie of that magnitude isn't easily forgiven.

Even I underestimated the amount of harm. I figured at some point Elon would eventually says "Oops, Sorry about that". But, instead it seems like they're betting on the "regulations" to keep them from L5.

The main reason I'm long on TSLA is not because of Elon Musk, but despite him. I think he'll eventually realize how lucrative the Truck/Utilities/Cargo-Van market is and they'll go after it.

The tweet exchange about the "Leaf blower" is funny. It's funny because it completely ignores the REAL reason for things like an electric leaf blower. Now Tesla doesn't need to actually make it, but they absolutely need to embrace the idea that a Tesla Truck or Utility vehicle as a large portable battery. So they can quickly recharge all the kinds of electronic tools that people are quickly switching over too. All that stuff is really loud, and not at all green.

The truck and a cargo van can share a similar platform. Although I'm a little concerned that Elon is going to overly complicate the truck with his imagination just like he did the Model X.

If they do it right there isn't anyone that can compete with the price of a 200KWh in a truck. Where they leverage the scale of the Model 3.

Tesla has three main advantages over everyone else, and one huge liability.

Advantages

Charging network not just in SuperChargers, but destination chargers. No one else is even close.
Gigafactory - No one else has access to the amount of batteries at the cost Tesla has achieved
The entire ADAS system that can be implemented across every vehicle they make. One that is constantly getting better. Sure it's not going be L5, but I'm pretty confident it will be a pretty darn sweet assistant. A huge number of drivers have anxiety with at least a few driving situations, and it can help out immensely.

Liability - Elon Musk. I'm not say he needs to go, but they need to do a better job of having other people in charge of certain aspects of Tesla and he needs to delegate. Right now there is just too much instability. People can't even make good solid buying decisions before Elon Musk pulls the rug out from under them. Like he claimed FSD would go up after May 1st by thousands, and then a couple weeks later he talked about it only being a $1K increase. Then he said it would be delayed until May 10th for those unable to order by May 1st. It's now May 2nd, and it's still $5K for everyone in the US. This is exactly why I can't stand listening to him. He's all over the place. One minute it's fire all the sakes people, and then it OOPS maybe not. Then it's the SALE, and then it's oh, wait no that wasn't a good idea. Dude needs to get some impulse control.
 
@S4WRXTTCS No argument from me there.

I would just add that similar (though smaller scale) unnecessary self-inflicted harm were the inflated performance figures during the P85D and P90DL era. Those hurt loyal fans on the highest end in a similar fashion. Not easily forgen. Perhaps coincidentally or not that started around the first Autopilot launch... It was completely unnecessary and created a vicious loop where Tesla had to chase those figures over the next couple of years leaving customer satisfaction debris behind them as they raced ahead... And it didn’t help that 90 kWh turned out to be a total dog of a battery pack that couldn’t stand that heat.

Level 5 impact can of course be on a much larger scale if they don’t deliver at all (to current owners) — and the delays already have an impact because people’s leases etc are soon ending...
 
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Since this thread is about what FSD will be like in 12 months, I thought it might be useful to look back at what Tesla has done so far.

Here is a timeline of major Autopilot/FSD milestones:

- October 2016: Production cars include AP2
- February 2017: Enhanced Autopilot is released
- August 2017: Production cars include AP2.5
- March 2018: 2018.10.4 update brings big improvement to Autosteer (Karpathy rewrite)
- Q3 2018: Karpathy says Tesla has large NN that are too big for AP2.
- October 5, 2018: V9 is released.
- October 26, 2018: Navigate on Autopilot with stalk confirmation
- March 28, 2019: Autosteer stop light warning feature released
- April 3, 2019: Navigate on Autopilot without stalk confirmation is released.
- April 2019: Production cars include AP3 (FSD computer)
- April 22, 2019: Autonomy Investor Day

Future timeline (based on Musk’s estimates)

- May 2019: Enhanced Summon to be released
- June-July 2019: FSD computer upgrades & First FSD features to be released
- December 2019: FSD to be “Feature Complete”
- 2020: Tesla Network and “robotaxi” enabled

What I find interesting in this timeline is that we see the accelerated nature of AP's progress. It took about 20 months for Tesla to go from initial release of a barebones EAP to a mature EAP and the first unique EAP feature (Nav on AP). But since the release of V9, in just 7 months, we've gotten a more mature Nav on AP, Autosteer stop light warning feature, AP3 computer entering production, Autonomy Investor Day and the soon release of Enhanced Summon. This is why I think 12 months from now should see a really good FSD because Tesla is moving faster now, thanks to AP3 and we are already close to seeing the first true FSD features. It's one reason why I am optimistic about FSD.
 
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Since this thread is about what FSD will be like in 12 months, I thought it might be useful to look back at what Tesla has done so far.

Here is a timeline of major Autopilot/FSD milestones:

- October 2016: Production cars include AP2
- February 2017: Enhanced Autopilot is released
- August 2017: Production cars include AP2.5
- March 2018: 2018.10.4 update brings big improvement to Autosteer (Karpathy rewrite)
- Q3 2018: Karpathy says Tesla has large NN that are too big for AP2.
- October 5, 2018: V9 is released.
- October 26, 2018: Navigate on Autopilot with stalk confirmation
- March 28, 2019: Autosteer stop light warning feature released
- April 3, 2019: Navigate on Autopilot without stalk confirmation is released.
- April 2019: Production cars include AP3 (FSD computer)
- April 22, 2019: Autonomy Investor Day

Future timeline (based on Musk’s estimates)

- May 2019: Enhanced Summon to be released
- June-July 2019: FSD computer upgrades & First FSD features to be released
- December 2019: FSD to be “Feature Complete”
- 2020: Tesla Network and “robotaxi” enabled

What I find interesting in this timeline is that we see the accelerated nature of AP's progress. It took about 20 months for Tesla to go from initial release of a barebones EAP to a mature EAP and the first unique EAP feature (Nav on AP). But since the release of V9, in just 7 months, we've gotten a more mature Nav on AP, Autosteer stop light warning feature, AP3 computer entering production, Autonomy Investor Day and the soon release of Enhanced Summon. This is why I think 12 months from now should see a really good FSD because Tesla is moving faster now, thanks to AP3 and we are already close to seeing the first true FSD features. It's one reason why I am optimistic about FSD.

It wasn't actually 20 months, its 5 years. You are discounting AP1 development, which control algorithm are still being used and what AP2 is based on.
 
What I find interesting in this timeline is that we see the accelerated nature of AP's progress. It took about 20 months for Tesla to go from initial release of a barebones EAP to a mature EAP and the first unique EAP feature (Nav on AP). But since the release of V9, in just 7 months, we've gotten a more mature Nav on AP, Autosteer stop light warning feature, AP3 computer entering production, Autonomy Investor Day and the soon release of Enhanced Summon. This is why I think 12 months from now should see a really good FSD because Tesla is moving faster now, thanks to AP3 and we are already close to seeing the first true FSD features. It's one reason why I am optimistic about FSD.

What gives you the impression that the progress has somehow accelerated?

For all we know Tesla is only now finishing up features they have developed for the past few years. That is not necessarily indicative of any major change in their rate of actual progress. It may progress at the same rate all the time. Who knows when the next batch of features get completed and released once these are out...

I know Elon mentioned exponential progress in his presentation, but we have little proof of it yet. Feature complete Level 5 no geofence FSD by end of 2019 of course requires it so let’s hope.
 
What gives you the impression that the progress has somehow accelerated?

For all we know Tesla is only now finishing up features they have developed for the past few years. That is not necessarily indicative of any major change in their rate of actual progress. It may progress at the same rate all the time. Who knows when the next batch of features get completed and released once these are out...

I know Elon mentioned exponential progress in his presentation, but we have little proof of it yet. Feature complete Level 5 no geofence FSD by end of 2019 of course requires it so let’s hope.

It feels accelerated to me because we went 20 months with EAP only seeing incremental improvements and no big features then we get seamless Nav on AP, autosteer stop light warning and the autonomy investor day, all in the same month. You are right that those features were being developed over a long period of time but getting those features released after so many months of just incremental progress, certainly gives the impression of accelerated progress. And yes, if Tesla does pull off feature complete by the end of 2019 and robotaxis by 2020, that would be an exponential improvement.

Side note: why are some of you saying "L5 feature complete" instead of just "feature complete"? That is not appropriate. Elon never said that they would be "L5 feature complete" by 2019, he said "feature complete" by 2019 and L5 by 2020. That's quite different. And remember that Elon is defining "feature complete" as just the primary features on their development list are in, not that all L5 features are in. Just as NOA is "feature complete" now because they finished the primary base features they wanted to do, but there is still more to do with NOA.
 
why are some of you saying "L5 feature complete" instead of just "feature complete"? That is not appropriate. Elon never said that they would be "L5 feature complete" by 2019, he said "feature complete" by 2019 and L5 by 2020. That's quite different. And remember that Elon is defining "feature complete" as just the primary features on their development list are in, not that all L5 features are in. Just as NOA is "feature complete" now because they finished the primary base features they wanted to do, but there is still more to do with NOA.

Because that is what Musk said when asked what does he mean by feature complete at the investor day. ”Level 5? No geofence?” (or words to that effect) and Musk replied simply ”Yes.”

Of course we are not expecting them to be Level 5 ”live” by end of 2019, just feature complete as a Level 5 prototype. For the real deal they said ”somewhere” in 2020 (which is interesting given that Level 5 means no geofence but that’s moot for regulatory reasons anyway). Around Q2 was mentioned I think.
 
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Because that is what Musk said when asked what does he mean by feature complete at the investor day. ”Level 5? No geofence?” (or words to that effect) and Musk replied simply ”Yes.”

Of course we are not expecting them to be Level 5 ”live” by end of 2019, just feature complete as a Level 5 prototype. For the real deal they said ”somewhere” in 2020 (which is interesting given that Level 5 means no geofence but that’s moot for regulatory reasons anyway). Around Q2 was mentioned I think.

I just want to be clear that people don't confuse "L5 feature complete" with "L5 live". "L5 feature complete" means "feature complete for a system that is designed to be L5", but "L5 feature complete" will not be L5 right out of the gate. That is why I prefer to leave the L5 part out of "feature complete".
 
I just want to be clear that people don't confuse "L5 feature complete" with "L5 live". "L5 feature complete" means "feature complete for a system that is designed to be L5", but "L5 feature complete" will not be L5 right out of the gate. That is why I prefer to leave the L5 part out of "feature complete".

To me that’s just obfuscation and confusing as ”feature complete” alone means nothing.

L5 no geofence feature complete means all weather, all geographical areas feature complete — it is still a prototype of course, that’s what feature complete implies anyway, but it should have everything needed to drive anywhere and recognize all traffic rules and situations everywhere.

I mean that’s what Level 5 no geofence means and that is what Musk answered.
 
To me that’s just obfuscation and confusing as ”feature complete” alone means nothing.

L5 no geofence feature complete means all weather, all geographical areas feature complete — it is still a prototype of course, that’s what feature complete implies anyway, but it should have everything needed to drive anywhere and recognize all traffic rules and situations everywhere.

I mean that’s what Level 5 no geofence means and that is what Musk answered.

To me Musk saying FSD Feature Complete means everything required has been made, but needs a poopton of edge/corners to be solved in their vision system. Which is why I think FSD feature complete isn't too exciting.
 
To me Musk saying FSD Feature Complete means everything required has been made, but needs a poopton of edge/corners to be solved in their vision system. Which is why I think FSD feature complete isn't too exciting.

Level 5 eature complete means knowing all the traffic signs, knowing all the traffic rules, having a driving policy solution for all conditions. Being a prototype certainly it can miss the occasional corner case or misrecognize something at times but it can’t, say, lack completely reading and understanding signs for example.

Lots for Tesla to implement by end of 2019 it seems.
 
Level 5 feature complete means knowing all the traffic signs, knowing all the traffic rules, having a driving policy solution for all conditions. Being a prototype certainly it can miss the occasional corner case or misrecognize something at times but it can’t, say, lack completely reading and understanding signs for example.

Lots for Tesla to implement by end of 2019 it seems.

I think the official FSD description on the Tesla page actually gives us some good clues about what FSD "feature complete" is:

Full Self-Driving Capability
All new Tesla cars have the hardware needed in the future for full self-driving in almost all circumstances. The system is designed to be able to conduct short and long distance trips with no action required by the person in the driver’s seat.

All you will need to do is get in and tell your car where to go. If you don’t say anything, the car will look at your calendar and take you there as the assumed destination or just home if nothing is on the calendar. Your Tesla will figure out the optimal route, navigate urban streets (even without lane markings), manage complex intersections with traffic lights, stop signs and roundabouts, and handle densely packed freeways with cars moving at high speed. When you arrive at your destination, simply step out at the entrance and your car will enter park seek mode, automatically search for a spot and park itself. A tap on your phone summons it back to you.

The future use of these features without supervision is dependent on achieving reliability far in excess of human drivers as demonstrated by billions of miles of experience, as well as regulatory approval, which may take longer in some jurisdictions. As these self-driving capabilities are introduced, your car will be continuously upgraded through over-the-air software updates.
Autopilot

So as I see it, FSD "feature complete" can be broken down this way:

Navigation
- Tell your car where to go
- Using calendar to determine your destination.
- Figure out optimal route

Status: complete. In car nav and calendar sync cover this.

Automatic City Driving
- Navigate urban streets (even without lane markings)
- Manage complex intersections with traffic lights
- Manage stop signs and roundabouts

Status: in development. Not released to public yet.

Navigate on Autopilot
- Handle densely packed freeways with cars moving at high speed

Status: Incomplete. Nav on AP is released to the public but can't manage densely packed freeways with cars moving at high speed yet.

Enhanced Summon
- Park Seek Mode
- Summon the car back to you.

Status: In Progress. Summon your car back to you is in early access but park seek mode is not available yet.
 
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