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Where is the production ramp?
- Thread starter Garlan Garner
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- Model 3
C141medic
Active Member
Wondering if we’re still in hell?Simple. Where are we? Correction......Where is Tesla?
Any factual details?
powertoold
Active Member
mcghee33
Member
We should get an official update from Elon in January per Elon's statement in the previous earnings call. See http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...3-7EC4E06DF840/TSLA_Update_Letter_2017-3Q.pdf
From my best guess of seeing the pictures of all the cars at Fremont and LA it looks like we are probably just entering the month of October on that S curve shown above. I say this because when that S curve was created the end of December was supposed to be 5000 vehicles per week. Per the last earnings call Elon stated they wouldn't be at 5000 per week until the end of Q1 2018.
We can only hope for some good news when Elon announces the Q4 sales results in January and tells us more about how the Model 3 ramps is going.
From my best guess of seeing the pictures of all the cars at Fremont and LA it looks like we are probably just entering the month of October on that S curve shown above. I say this because when that S curve was created the end of December was supposed to be 5000 vehicles per week. Per the last earnings call Elon stated they wouldn't be at 5000 per week until the end of Q1 2018.
We can only hope for some good news when Elon announces the Q4 sales results in January and tells us more about how the Model 3 ramps is going.
I think the production ramp is being used for wheelchairs at present
TaoJones
Beyond Driven
Some back of the napkin scribbling a while back produced guesstimates of 1K/wk by the end of December, 3K/wk by the end of Q1, and 5K/wk by the end of Q2.
Keeping in mind that the plant closes for a week or two in January, that a refresh of some sort is due in Q2, and that the world won’t end if they don’t get to max capacity until year end, there’s some wiggle room.
In the background, it’s worth noting that this very factory cranked out 10K/wk while under previous ownership.
So... there’s that. It’s not a matter of if, but when. Hopefully without meddling from external parties.
Keeping in mind that the plant closes for a week or two in January, that a refresh of some sort is due in Q2, and that the world won’t end if they don’t get to max capacity until year end, there’s some wiggle room.
In the background, it’s worth noting that this very factory cranked out 10K/wk while under previous ownership.
So... there’s that. It’s not a matter of if, but when. Hopefully without meddling from external parties.
I'm not in hell.....lol.Wondering if we’re still in hell?
Thanks for the opportunity for the perfect 6000 post. LOL.
AssortedBread
Member
But keep in mind the previous ownership did not do as much sub assembly construction as Tesla does. Tesla (And Spacex) both follow the mantra if our suppliers can't do it to our satisfaction we'll do it ourselves.
Still inevitable that they'll hit they production targets. But it will and has been a bigger challenge than they ever anticipated.
That's one of my biggest questions IF ( and that's a big IF ) what you are saying is true. How can this be such a big challenge when this is their 3rd try in a row. So far...the bottleneck has been their own battery pack manufacturing. Not a vendor. According to Tesla themselves. The vendors are ready.
They didn't peel back their own onion skin to see their involvement in the process? It happened inside of Gigafactory 1 right?
I ordered a working refrigerator....the reason my family is hungry is because this broken refrigerator spoiled all of our food.......I didn't realize my refrigerator didn't work.....its not my fault.
Tesla Model 3 production 'bottlenecks' probed by Financial Times
RobStark
Well-Known Member
No, we get those at the beginning of a quarter with deliveries and sometimes production numbers.
Then more detail and projections 5 weeks later at the quarterly call with the Wall Street analyst.
We could only discuss those events 8 times a year.
The rest of the time is rumor, innuendo, reading tea leaves, Elon's mood on twitter etc.
Also keep in mind when comparing to volumes of the original factory that production of the Model S an X must be added to the production of the Model 3.
Takata airbags.
Many OEMs used them, many OEMs believed the supplier, many OEMs are now replacing them.
Kobe Steel many manufactures trusted them, now the products are questionable.
Chinese drywall: builders used it, then had to rip it all out. (See also milk and pet food)
SpaceX struts: lost a rocket due to poor QC by supplier.
Either you trust your suppliers or do it yourself (or micromanage to the point you might as well have)
Odd point. You post as if Tesla is not aware this was ultimately their fault. Elon admitted it was (listen to the last conference call).
Your whole “refrigerator analogy”, is basically a straw man argument.
No.....I'm posting that Tesla is fully aware of their fault. OTHER people in this thread are posting that its an outside vendors fault.
What I'm saying is that if something happens within the walls of your house...you are responsible.
Are you trying to say the two cannot both be true?
Tesla chose a vendor, Tesla chose a level of oversight, the vendor failed to meet their obligation, Tesla took resposibily for their role, Tesla fixed the issue .
Cause: vendor's failure to meet specification
Responsibility: Tesla
A captain is responsible for what happens on their ship. That does not mean they are the one that lost the anchor and chain.
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