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Where is the Q3 Tesla safety report?

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powertoold

Active Member
Oct 10, 2014
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10,602
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Q3 2021 was the first full quarter of Tesla Vision. The Q3 safety report is very delayed. My guess is that the data isn't good.

Q2 report was released on 10/1/21 (2 months after end of Q2) and was already the most delayed report I believe:


Now it's almost been 3 months since the end of Q3 and no safety report yet!

 
Looks like I was wrong! Safety improved after Tesla Vision! Very impressive:

 
Looks like I was wrong! Safety improved after Tesla Vision! Very impressive:

@Bladerskb
 
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Details of why you think that way would be interesting.
@Khashoggi

The stat is completely worthless.

It doesn't consider:

The fact that the majority of cars in the NHTSA stats includes cars from late 90s and Early 2000s with little or no safety feature.

The fact that the Tesla stat is only counting very narrow Highway incidents while the NHTSA stats is counting incidents from highway, surface streets, urban, suburban country, etc. Where most accidents/deaths happen at.

The fact that ~50% of Teslas are in CA where the roads are pristine and the weather is spotless with no inclement weather of any kind. However the NHTSA stats is from all 50 states and contains every inclement weather imaginable.

The fact that Autopilot even in other states are likely not to be used by owner in inclement weather while the NHTSA stats obviously does.

The fact that the demographic of NHTSA include teenagers who have by far the most accident rate and Tesla's stats only include luxury rich demographic.

Majority of tesla cars were made in 2018 and above. If Tesla wanted an actual comparison then they would compare their statistics with the stats of other luxury (same price range) cars that were made in 2018 or above. Tesla knows this "report" is worthless but they release it anyways because they know a good chunk of their fans will believe and evangelize ANYTHING. At the end of the day the safety rate of Tesla's cars and AP ends up being the same (maybe in worse) as other luxury car models.

GM Supercruise's 0 incident in 5.7 Million miles

Breaking it down:

1. Majority of cars in the NHTSA stats includes cars from late 90s and Early 2000s with little or no safety feature.
2. The fact that the Tesla stat is only counting very narrow limited access highway incidents while the NHTSA stats is counting incidents from highway, surface streets, intersections, urban, suburban, rural, etc. Where most accidents/deaths happen at.
  • In 2018, 70 percent of crash deaths in urban areas occurred on roads less than 55 mph.
  • In rural areas, majority of all fatal crashes occur on two lane highways, narrow or nonexistent shoulders, and limited sight distance due to hills and curves.
3. The fact that ~50% of Teslas are in CA where the roads are pristine and the weather is spotless with no inclement weather of any kind. However the NHTSA stats is from all 50 states and contains every inclement weather imaginable.
 
@Khashoggi

The stat is completely worthless.

It doesn't consider:

The fact that the majority of cars in the NHTSA stats includes cars from late 90s and Early 2000s with little or no safety feature.

The fact that the Tesla stat is only counting very narrow Highway incidents while the NHTSA stats is counting incidents from highway, surface streets, urban, suburban country, etc. Where most accidents/deaths happen at.

The fact that ~50% of Teslas are in CA where the roads are pristine and the weather is spotless with no inclement weather of any kind. However the NHTSA stats is from all 50 states and contains every inclement weather imaginable.

The fact that Autopilot even in other states are likely not to be used by owner in inclement weather while the NHTSA stats obviously does.

The fact that the demographic of NHTSA include teenagers who have by far the most accident rate and Tesla's stats only include luxury rich demographic.

Majority of tesla cars were made in 2018 and above. If Tesla wanted an actual comparison then they would compare their statistics with the stats of other luxury (same price range) cars that were made in 2018 or above. Tesla knows this "report" is worthless but they release it anyways because they know a good chunk of their fans will believe and evangelize ANYTHING. At the end of the day the safety rate of Tesla's cars and AP ends up being the same (maybe in worse) as other luxury car models.

GM Supercruise's 0 incident in 5.7 Million miles

Breaking it down:

1. Majority of cars in the NHTSA stats includes cars from late 90s and Early 2000s with little or no safety feature.
2. The fact that the Tesla stat is only counting very narrow limited access highway incidents while the NHTSA stats is counting incidents from highway, surface streets, intersections, urban, suburban, rural, etc. Where most accidents/deaths happen at.
  • In 2018, 70 percent of crash deaths in urban areas occurred on roads less than 55 mph.
  • In rural areas, majority of all fatal crashes occur on two lane highways, narrow or nonexistent shoulders, and limited sight distance due to hills and curves.
3. The fact that ~50% of Teslas are in CA where the roads are pristine and the weather is spotless with no inclement weather of any kind. However the NHTSA stats is from all 50 states and contains every inclement weather imaginable.

Thanks for putting that together. I seen/lived with stats being baked to fit the narrative and ‘knew’ it was happening here. But I didn’t have the motivation to research it and find some examples.
 
Tesla updated the page with most of 2022 numbers with new charts and reporting method:

2022 Q3 had 6.26M Autopilot miles before an accident compared to 1.71M without Autopilot. And compared to 2018 Q3's 3.35M with Autopilot, it's getting close to double. So looks like Tesla Vision is safer and probably why they switched vehicles even with radar.
 
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