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Where is the version of the autonomous software used in October's video?

You have to keep this in perspective, no other car on the market has anything that functions even as well as AP 1.0 yet, and no other manufacturer promises to improve the features over time with OTA updates.

I was in your same situation when I ordered my 85D late 2014 after the anouncement of AP 1.0 with Autosteer, they expected release of the feature to be around March 2015 when I received my order (3-months to deliver). That alone is what pushed me to get a Tesla 4x the pri e of the Subaru Legacy with 2nd Gen Eyesight that I was considering.

The autosteer functionality didn't get officially released until late October 2015, 7 months delayed. It took numerous updates every 1-2 months over the following year to tweak it for improvements as it was also scary at first. It works very well since 8.0 and 8.1 coming in a few weeks will likely be the last major update for AP 1.0 with it working nearly flawlessly in most conditions.

I do not regret for a moment ordering early despite the delays the ultimate functionality did come as promised and was well worth it! I even got an OTA update shortly after receiving my car that improved the 0-60 time by more than a second for free. I look forward to my 2 Model 3 reservations next year and am expecting Tesla to be close to level 4 autonomy with their software by then but am thinking late 2018 for full autonomy. I don't expect the Tesla Fleet Mode (where it earns you money like an uber) to be approved by regulators till 2019+.
 

Dickerns

Member
Nov 26, 2016
45
44
DC
You have to keep this in perspective, no other car on the market has anything that functions even as well as AP 1.0 yet, and no other manufacturer promises to improve the features over time with OTA updates.

I was in your same situation when I ordered my 85D late 2014 after the anouncement of AP 1.0 with Autosteer, they expected release of the feature to be around March 2015 when I received my order (3-months to deliver). That alone is what pushed me to get a Tesla 4x the pri e of the Subaru Legacy with 2nd Gen Eyesight that I was considering.

The autosteer functionality didn't get officially released until late October 2015, 7 months delayed. It took numerous updates every 1-2 months over the following year to tweak it for improvements as it was also scary at first. It works very well since 8.0 and 8.1 coming in a few weeks will likely be the last major update for AP 1.0 with it working nearly flawlessly in most conditions.

I do not regret for a moment ordering early despite the delays the ultimate functionality did come as promised and was well worth it! I even got an OTA update shortly after receiving my car that improved the 0-60 time by more than a second for free. I look forward to my 2 Model 3 reservations next year and am expecting Tesla to be close to level 4 autonomy with their software by then but am thinking late 2018 for full autonomy. I don't expect the Tesla Fleet Mode (where it earns you money like an uber) to be approved by regulators till 2019+.

I don't think anyone is questioning the greatness of Tesla. As I stated previously, they currently have no competition since they're so far ahead of everyone else. If it is true that they don't respect deadlines, it is because they can get away with it. Which other EVs will you flock to if you're unhappy? Lucid? Faraday Future? Porsche? Exactly! So, there are no other choices right now. However, things will be different in three years, but by that time, Tesla might take a quantum leap and leave all other EVs out of sight.

I'm excited with my P100D purchase and I'm planning on enjoying my car for a very long time. However, I can't promise that I will ever become desensitized to Tesla missing deadlines.
 
I don't think anyone is questioning the greatness of Tesla. As I stated previously, they currently have no competition since they're so far ahead of everyone else. If it is true that they don't respect deadlines, it is because they can get away with it. Which other EVs will you flock to if you're unhappy? Lucid? Faraday Future? Porsche? Exactly! So, there are no other choices right now. However, things will be different in three years, but by that time, Tesla might take a quantum leap and leave all other EVs out of sight.

I'm excited with my P100D purchase and I'm planning on enjoying my car for a very long time. However, I can't promise that I will ever become desensitized to Tesla missing deadlines.
I think it isn't so much them not respecting deadlines. After all if they don't test enough and release it too early, any crashes could derail the whole program as media and regulators would pick at Tesla like crows on a corpse. Sure Tesla tends to be overly optomistic but you have to remember they are trying to achieve goals well beyond what anyone else has undertaken thus far (and many are 5 years behind). Sometimes the complexity results in missed deadlines, but unlike computer software they can't risk the liability of releasing glitched software that isn't fully tested for bugs.
 
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If any has developed software that you make your best time estimate and then double it ... even then you will likely not make it.

The new AP2 softward is completely different from AP1 software. It uses a deep learning neural net. This processes raw camera and radar data, and it needs lots of data to construct a system model in Tesla's mainframes. The model is then downloaded to the cars' computers. The car calibrates its sensors to the model, and then runs the model.

This is a chicken and egg problem: one needs lots of data from new sensors to build the model, so the cars need the sensors in order to supply the data -- and so there is a lag time that can't be helped. They are actually doing well. Six months from now everyone will be happy and the gap will be forgiven.

Hang in, you have the best car in the world :D
 
I think it isn't so much them not respecting deadlines. After all if they don't test enough and release it too early, any crashes could derail the whole program as media and regulators would pick at Tesla like crows on a corpse. Sure Tesla tends to be overly optomistic but you have to remember they are trying to achieve goals well beyond what anyone else has undertaken thus far (and many are 5 years behind). Sometimes the complexity results in missed deadlines, but unlike computer software they can't risk the liability of releasing glitched software that isn't fully tested for bugs.

I totally agree about the need to do extensive testing before releasing a product. However, if you set an expectation to your customer that you'll release the product by a certain date and you end up being six months late, do you expect your customer to be very understanding because you were taking your time to ensure great quality? Perhaps, if you are the only one who can deliver such a great product, then your customer has no choice but to stick with you, but they are guaranteed to get a bit grouchy.

Well, Tesla will continue to be the only one for the next three years and although, I may get a bit grouchy when expectations are not met, I'm not stupid to think that I could get another car that would bring as much fun and excitement as my Model S P100D.

With respect to Tesla missing deadlines, I was reacting to what some owners had advised me to do i.e. get used to Tesla missing dates because they're not bound by time. This is a foreign concept to me and I won't ever get used to it.
 
All the Model 3 reservers are in similar circumstances. All we know is that the very earliest production could start, if everyone executed perfectly, is July ... but everyone, including EM expects that to be missed. When it does happen, the ramp up will be an S shape, slow exponential start, a linear middle and a slow taper. The start portion is hard to predict. However, I am confident that we will see a significant number produced before the year's end. But the wait will be worth it.
 

WannabeOwner

Well-Known Member
Nov 2, 2015
6,933
3,690
Suffolk, UK
I don't consider a limited beta release to 1000 users as meeting that threshold.

Sure what what been released is limited both in scope (in terms of feature-parity with AP1 cars) and numbers. But equally there isn't "no release".

With respect to Tesla missing deadlines, I was reacting to what some owners had advised me to do i.e. get used to Tesla missing dates because they're not bound by time. This is a foreign concept to me and I won't ever get used to it.

I think, if you [and others] can be bothered you should make a nuisance of yourself. What was fine back-then will no longer be fine when delivering 500K+ vehicles p.a.
 

Cosmacelf

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Mar 6, 2013
9,897
28,142
San Diego
It all comes down to Elon. He's the one tweeting that "if all goes well" the next release should be out in a week. The Tesla communications department is then left scrambling. Personally, I'm fine with it, and I 'get' Elon. But boy, it is so different from the way that other companies operate that it catches people by surprise.

ALSO, I must point out that people hear what they want to hear. They completely tune out and don't remember the caveats. "Assuming we don't have a supplier problem, Model X will ship in six months". Well, geez, every car maker has supplier problems, so when hearing that don't expect the car in six months!

AND FINALLY, Tesla does have a bad habit of NOT telling us bad news that would affect schedules. Elon opens the kimono enough for us to see the good news, but goes radio silence when some big bad thing occurs, like ditching hydraulic falcon wing doors six months before expected ship date for the Mdoel X. We are still leaning bits and pieces about that debacle as information dribbles out.

All this means that predicting release dates based on stated and unstated news is a bit of an art and is what keeps many forums active!
 
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Cosmacelf

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Mar 6, 2013
9,897
28,142
San Diego
Btw, to my point of people hearing what they want to hear, Model 3 is a case in point. People have mid this year as a date in their heads. Even Elon never, ever, said was a realistic date. What he said was that mid this year was an internal company target date for all suppliers to be able to ship production quality parts KNOWING that not all suppliers will meet that deadline. Supplier substitution may (read probably will) have to occur. A few Model 3 dribbling out before end of year is actually the optimistic scenario. Which might get missed.
 
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Btw, to my point of people hearing what they want to hear, Model 3 is a case in point. People have mid this year as a date in their heads. Even Elon never, ever, said was a realistic date. What he said was that mid this year was an internal company target date for all suppliers to be able to ship production quality parts KNOWING that not all suppliers will meet that deadline. Supplier substitution may (read probably will) have to occur. A few Model 3 dribbling out before end of year is actually the optimistic scenario. Which might get missed.

Another great one is AutoPilot itself, the Full self driving option, in the announcement in Oct 2016, Elon said “Our goal is — I feel pretty good about this goal — is that we’ll be able to do a demonstration drive of full autonomy, all the way from L.A. to New York — so, basically, from a home in L.A. to, let’s say, dropping you off in Times Square, in New York, then having the car go and park itself by the end of next year — without the need for a single touch, including the charging.”

I have regularly heard people, including respected news organizations, indicate that Tesla has said they will have full self driving by the end of 2017. (often also stating that they think it will be impossible!) That's not what he said! He said that by the end of 2017, their GOAL is to be able to do a DEMONSTRATION drive from LA to New York. No mention of a shipping product, no mention of when those features would be available to FSDC owners, and it was a GOAL, not a commitment. Even if he meets that goal and demonstrates his drive perfectly by the end of 2017, it may well be another 1-2 years before the technology is ready to roll out, and who knows how much longer before all of the various legislative bodies approve it.

I would love to have FSDC by the end of next year, but every time I hear someone say that Tesla or Elon said we will have it by then, I cringe, because I know that it is setting up a bunch of people to be disappointed.
 

lunitiks

Cool James & Black Teacher
Nov 19, 2016
2,698
5,990
Prawn Island, VC
Elon opens the kimono enough for us to see the good news, but goes radio silence when some big bad thing occurs ...

Thanks

logo-3d89fca7dc3bed64f81e107d9ad7b63ae39c27b91eb912e46b3bb80a5513269b.png
 

brkaus

Well-Known Member
Jul 8, 2014
8,644
7,261
Austin, TX
My advice is that Tesla should under-promise and over-deliver. Perhaps, they should have announced that AP1 parity would be reached by July 2017 and then surprise everyone and release it in April 2017. However, letting people know that AP1 parity could be reached by December 2016 only creates frustration when that expectation is not met

Of course, the internet being what it is, someone would complain that they opted to purchase an AP1 inventory car based on the scheduled software. But if they knew it would only be April then they would have purchased the AP2 car.
 

Drone Flyer

Active Member
Feb 22, 2016
1,128
587
Canada
In October 2016, Tesla released a video showcasing the full self-driving capability of a Model X and it was very impressive. I canceled my ICE car order which was due to be delivered in late December and immediately ordered a Model S P100D. I assumed then that the codebase behind the FSD capability shown in the video was in decent shape, but it needed to go thorough testing before being released to the public and therefore I accepted AP1 parity not being available until December 2016. In fact, I commended Tesla for doing its due diligence to ensure quality and not release UNSAFE features to its consumers.

I took delivery of my Model S on December 22 and I've driven it only twice. I drove it home on delivery day and parked in the garage and a week later, I drove it to an XPEL installer and the process was supposed to take only 5 days, but unfortunately, I won't get my car back until the middle of next week because, for the goal package, they have to apply several layers of coating and that takes a bit longer. Oh, while there, the windows will be tinted as well.

I heard about the recent release of AP2 which was pushed to 1000 owners on new year's eve and the feedback has not been good at all. First, many owners are claiming that AP1 parity is not even close to being reached and then, there are a lot of safety concerns being raised.

Where is the FSD codebase running the Model X in the October video? I expected a little over two months to have been enough time to do thorough testing and fix some defects to safely enable AP1 features.

Tesla, what's going on? Talk to your supporters and tell us the truth. When can we expect at least AP1 parity?
A Tesla car featuring the video you saw in October will NOT come into fruition for at least 5 years.
Part of the reason is research and development from Tesla, yes, but most of the delay will be from government bureaucracy. It's going to take some time before each government body allows autonomous driving.
Sorry to crash your party! But then I have to ask again, if you spend over a hundred grand on a car like the Model S, which is fun to drive, why on earth would anyone want autonomous driving? Go hire a taxi or Uber if you don't want to drive!
 

oktane

Active Member
Oct 25, 2016
2,067
2,979
USA
A Tesla car featuring the video you saw in October will NOT come into fruition for at least 5 years.
Part of the reason is research and development from Tesla, yes, but most of the delay will be from government bureaucracy. It's going to take some time before each government body allows autonomous driving.

I don't think the government has anything to do with it. There is no law preventing the car from driving itself as long as a licensed driver is behind the wheel (and ultimately responsible for control of the car). You are correct ONLY if there is no human driver ready to take control.

If it takes 5 years, it's because Tesla hasn't perfected the technology. So called "regulatory approval" is an easy scapegoat.
 

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