Where, Oh Where, Is the Next Batch of Invites?

[suwaneedad]

It's been 18 days and counting since the last batch of invites went out (Jan 24), and that batch was the smallest of the three (per the spreadsheet respondents). The time between invite batches has 'never' been this long before. No one else here finds this fact pattern newsworthy/disturbing?

Crickets chirping in Fremont.

 

[Kenriko]

I've been wondering the same thing, the next batch of invites should include most of the remaining owners.

 

[John Beans]

Maybe many previous invitees finally got around to ordering.

 

[jsrawa]

I’m definitely concerned and it only fuels my doubt that they can make it to their production goals for the end of Q1. Something doesn’t add up in my opinion.

 

[azred]

Maybe they expect to hit 200,000 this quarter unless they slow down deliveries. Obviously it would be best to hit the mark at the beginning of a quarter.

 

[RedOctober]

It's been 18 days and counting since the last batch of invites went out (Jan 24), and that batch was the smallest of the three (per the spreadsheet respondents). The time between invite batches has 'never' been this long before. No one else here finds this fact pattern newsworthy/disturbing?

Crickets chirping in Fremont.

I’m with you. I have checked the invitee spreadsheet and 66xx is still the highset after a week. But I did read some place that a couple days ago someone got assigned his VIN at 71xx.

 

[insaneoctane]

It's been feeling like a lull to me. There could easily be something they want fixed before they ship to regular non-owner customers who are likely to be less tolerant than previous owners.

 

[dampfred]

Wild optimistic guess: They’re about to enable configuration of dual motor version and want to give early reservation holders holding out for that the chance to get their orders in place, before opening configuration up wider?

 

[jsrawa]

Wild optimistic guess: They’re about to enable configuration of dual motor version and want to give early reservation holders holding out for that the chance to get their orders in place, before opening configuration up wider?

I like your optimism but don’t hold your breath. I think they need to focus on one configuration until they really get running.

 

[rosh]

Someone on Reddit claimed to have been invited last Monday.

 

[jsrawa]

I’m with you. I have checked the invitee spreadsheet and 66xx is still the highset after a week. But I did read some place that a couple days ago someone got assigned his VIN at 71xx.

We should be in the 8s, 9s or higher by now, if we don’t here about any invites in the next day or so I think it’s worse than they let on.

 

[dsvick]

We should be in the 8s, 9s or higher by now, if we don’t here about any invites in the next day or so I think it’s worse than they let on.

Or, has been mentioned, it could be that many of the people that had been invited to configure and said they were going to wait on the SR decided to go ahead and configure the LR version. I don't think you can read much of anything into something not happening.

 

[VIKING26]

Or is it that current owners that are active on this site and add their info to the spreadsheet are ones that reserved Model 3s early and therefore have already placed their orders or deferred. Casual Tesla owners that reserved a M3 later might not be adding their info to the spreadsheet or checking their Tesla account. Instead they are waiting for an email from Tesla to configure their car, an email that is delayed or not coming.

 

[RubberToe]

If Tesla is losing money on every Model 3 built (was this mentioned in the latest quarterly report) due to manual labor associated with battery assembly, what's the incentive to increase production?

I would also be curious how big the "machine" is that is coming from Germany to speed up battery assembly. If the machine is ready, and just needs to be disassembled and shipped over, how large is it exactly? I was wondering if it might not be faster to fly it over on some large cargo aircraft and land in San Jose versus putting it on a boat, if that is what they are doing.

Surely someone at Tesla ran the numbers before making that call.

And yes, I agree that the lull in invites is very puzzling.

RT

P.S. And the German factory that built the battery pack assembly machine better be working 24/7 on the next one (or two).

 

[dm33]

I would also be curious how big the "machine" is that is coming from Germany to speed up battery assembly. If the machine is ready, and just needs to be disassembled and shipped over, how large is it exactly? I was wondering if it might not be faster to fly it over on some large cargo aircraft and land in San Jose versus putting it on a boat, if that is what they are doing.

How long can it take to move this machine from Germany? Maybe they need the Beluga to ship it over. Beluga

 

[gregincal]

If Tesla is losing money on every Model 3 built (was this mentioned in the latest quarterly report) due to manual labor associated with battery assembly, what's the incentive to increase production?

I would also be curious how big the "machine" is that is coming from Germany to speed up battery assembly. If the machine is ready, and just needs to be disassembled and shipped over, how large is it exactly? I was wondering if it might not be faster to fly it over on some large cargo aircraft and land in San Jose versus putting it on a boat, if that is what they are doing.

Surely someone at Tesla ran the numbers before making that call.

And yes, I agree that the lull in invites is very puzzling.

RT

P.S. And the German factory that built the battery pack assembly machine better be working 24/7 on the next one (or two).

You have to be a little careful on the “losing money on every Model 3 built.” They had a negative gross margin due to “allocation of full operating costs and depreciation.” Making more Model 3s would actually increase cash flow and improve the margins.

 

[barjohn]

I think we have all noticed this significant lull. If they were producing 1,000 cars a week invites should be flying out and it would be obvious. With hundreds of thousands of orders the activity should be overwhelming.

 

[jomo25]

When I picked up our 3 on Friday at the Tempe Svc avenger, I counted at least 20 3s on the lot waiting to be delivered. I was shocked how many were there. VINs ranging from 4200-6700 just from spot checking some of them.

Maybe the bottleneck isn’t manufacture, but delivery?

 

[trace]

When I picked up our 3 on Friday at the Tempe Svc avenger, I counted at least 20 3s on the lot waiting to be delivered. I was shocked how many were there. VINs ranging from 4200-6700 just from spot checking some of them.

Maybe the bottleneck isn’t manufacture, but delivery?

I think if it was delivery they would have started invites to more regions (eg: Candada and other left-side markets). I read somewhere they were also opening "popup" delivery rooms in random warehouses to accommodate places without a proper delivery center.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Still about four hanging out in Palm Springs as of a couple days ago. Starting to see a couple in the wild on the street. There is definitely a lull as far as reporting on this board goes but I'm not sure what to read into it yet. People (shareholder?) are getting fidgety though. There doesn't seem to be an increasing ramp in numbers. Say 4000 produced in 6 weeks since the new year.