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where the Tesla model 3 sits globally

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by renim, Aug 14, 2016.

  1. renim

    renim Active Member

    Apr 6, 2013
    there is no global norm for a car
    top 10 cars
    3 utes,
    3 midsize sedans
    2 compact sedan
    2 SUVs
    generally motor is 2.4l or larger
    generally wheelbase is more than 2700mm

    EU 2015 (Full Year) Europe: 20 Best-Selling Car Models top 10 cars
    1 Volkswagen Golf 533,584
    2 Ford Fiesta 314,432
    3 Renault Clio 305,305
    4 Volkswagen Polo 301,817
    5 Opel / Vauxhall Corsa 269,765
    6 Ford Focus 234,442
    7 Nissan Qashqai 232,176
    8 Peugeot 208 229,767
    9 VW Passat 228,113
    10 Skoda Octavia 218,095

    1 hatchs, 1 CUVs , 1 wagon
    wheelbase anywhere generally lass than 2700mm (ie Prius/LEAF)
    typical engine, turbo 1.2 litre, aspirated 1.6 litre

    China June 2016 top 6 (sales over 30k in June) Best-selling Sedans, SUVs, and MPVs in June 2016 | ChinaAutoWeb
    Wuling Hongguang SAIC-GM-Wuling 41956
    VW Lavida Sedan SAIC-VW 37869
    Haval H6 Great Wall 37547
    Nissan Sylphy Dongfeng-Nissan 33489
    VW Jetta FAW-VW 32950
    Buick Excelle SAIC-GM 30973

    van first
    sedan and SUV second
    3 sedans/hatch 3rd

    much more variety than USA or EU in styles, but generally engine below 1.6litre

    40% of market is Kei cars (imiev size cars)
    of the remaining 60% the top 5
    Toyota Aqua 215,525 (prius C)
    Toyota Prius 127,403 Prius
    Honda Fit 119,846
    Toyota Corolla 109,027
    Nissan Note 97,995 (Vesa hatch)

    so their large size car is a corolla or a Prius. most cars are much smaller than either of those.

    its a big part of why there is no equivalent to the Tesla, in most of these markets, a Tesla sized car is fringe car anyway.

    Its also a reason why established automakers made their first EVs look so strange to USA eyes.
    the LEAF, i3, MiEV, these are all fairly unremarkable looking in their home markets. Particularly the MiEV, it is a normal car.
    • Informative x 1
    • Like x 1
  2. renim

    renim Active Member

    Apr 6, 2013
    typo EU 8 hatchs, 1 wagon, 1 CUV

    not just size, also cost implications

    Mid point of USA market is $35k, Tesla is aiming from mid point up.

    Mid point of China market is irrelevant, Chinese market is so diverse that Its all good

    Mid point of EU market is strongly affected by taxes etc, however that their top 3 cars are Golf, Fiesta and Clio would indicate that their midpoint is about 60% below the equivalent of the USA market. It the Tesla 3 is a very premium car for them, far from mass market mid point. In areas with strong taxation on engine size/pollution, Tesla 3 will be mid point price.

    Mid point of Japan, similar to Europe, but smaller cars and more competitive market. Tesla 3 is a premium car for them, far from mass market, but with their car culture its still is OK.
  3. Cobos

    Cobos S60 Owner since 2013 - sold, S85D owner since 2017

    Jun 22, 2007
    Oslo, Norway
    I would say the EU price is comparable to the US for average car price. Maybe slightly less.
    It's not so easy to just read the statistics directly since most smaller cars in EU has much more equipment if not bigger engine than in the US. I'm pretty sure if you look at actual sales you can't get a new car in EU with manual windows, while I think you still can in the US as an example. Also important to remember all prices in EU is listed INCLUDING sales tax (which can be upto 26%), while most any price in the US is not.
    Except for these points you do make a good case for the Model 3.

  4. renim

    renim Active Member

    Apr 6, 2013
    closer look at the Chinese cars

    van first
    sedan and SUV second
    3 sedans next

    so no hatchs.

    so big differences between China and EU. even though German automakers are great in China. A good reason for Tesla 3 to be sedan first, then followed by a CUV

    Realistically a right sized EV for USA and China will be oversized for EU and Japan. best selling EV in Europe is Renault Zoe, and that is an AC 22kW only vehicle derived from Renault Clio. In USA that would simply be seen as an insincere attempt at an EV, but its really from Renault's center of gravity. In China it would be compared against very successful cheap EVs.

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