where will we be in 3 years time?

[bingbongbing]

So with 'boat loads' of cars arriving now, where do we think we'll be in 3 years time? will Tesla update the model 3 before 2045?

Is the current success of Tesla more to do with competition catching up? ie, in 3 years time, they'll be so much choice, would you stay with Tesla?

I'm enjoying my model 3. its not as a luxury as I'd normally want, the charing network made it a no brainer for this moment in time though.

 

[Tony Hoyle]

Tesla updates the model 3 every few months.. the ones shipping now are somewhat different to the 2019 variant, and there's another round of upgrades coming (lithium 12v, some extra bells and whistles).

 

[DJP31]

When I bought my first Model S at the end of 2016 I thought there would be more competition 4 years later. There wasn't, so I bought the same car again, except it had years worth of improvements to it - better motors, better suspension etc etc. The charging public charging network is barely any better than it was, but the Supercharger network has come on leaps and bounds.

Will the next 3 years by much different? Speaking personally I don't think so. As a package Tesla is very difficult to beat and I don't think that's going change that quickly - especially as the ICE manufacturers still have a few years left to sell their wares before the curtain falls.

 

[yessuz]

Tesla updates the model 3 every few months.. the ones shipping now are somewhat different to the 2019 variant, and there's another round of upgrades coming (lithium 12v, some extra bells and whistles).

Is there any way to see what the actual configuration of current builds compared to lets say 2020?

 

[DJP31]

Is there any way to see what the actual configuration of current builds compared to lets say 2020?

Not really, they make changes all the time so it's virtually impossible to make that comparison - there could have been and probably were any number of changes made during 2020.

 

[Js1977]

In space I hope....there is a roadster to be had up there

 

[UkNorthampton]

The "competition" will be fixing pouch battery packs until they switch to LFP or cylinders, all the while looking at how to stop losing money. Tesla's advantages include First Principles thinking/engineering.

Teslas are constantly being updated through software but also new cars change all the time, even individual cars have different builds as they try out improvements (usually backwards compatible - Agile Hardware / production cells / ramping). They don't just change the appearance for the sake of a "refresh".

I'm assuming OP meant 2025 (not 2045).

Tesla is accelerating, so competition is getting further behind. Niche competition will appeal to some, Chinese options might be cheaper, but most objective people will consider Tesla first, even if eventually getting something smaller/cheaper/better towing/easier to get in & out, wanting something different from others.

Tesla will still be supply constrained for years.

 

[bingbongbing]

Tesla updates the model 3 every few months.. the ones shipping now are somewhat different to the 2019 variant, and there's another round of upgrades coming (lithium 12v, some extra bells and whistles).

The "competition" will be fixing pouch battery packs until they switch to LFP or cylinders, all the while looking at how to stop losing money. Tesla's advantages include First Principles thinking/engineering.

Teslas are constantly being updated through software but also new cars change all the time, even individual cars have different builds as they try out improvements (usually backwards compatible - Agile Hardware / production cells / ramping). They don't just change the appearance for the sake of a "refresh".

I'm assuming OP meant 2025 (not 2045).

Tesla is accelerating, so competition is getting further behind. Niche competition will appeal to some, Chinese options might be cheaper, but most objective people will consider Tesla first, even if eventually getting something smaller/cheaper/better towing/easier to get in & out, wanting something different from others.

Tesla will still be supply constrained for years.

Tesla aren’t supply constrained?

 

[thesmokingman]

The legacy brands will continue to fall behind. In 2022, they still haven't learned key fundamentals that Tesla went thru in 2006. The gap will just get wider and wider. The smaller more nimble makes will creep up but I don't think the goliaths will change. They still talk about how great they are instead of actually proving it.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Tesla aren’t supply constrained?

Every earnings call Elon Musk says they can't get chips, cells. Supply is constrained. The demand is so huge that there are huge backlogs for Teslas, plenty of untapped markets (quite big ones). Unable to make enough energy grid & domestic storage. battery day, Elon was very clear that Tesla would give good, long contracts to ethical miners.

Even when chips are plentiful, cells will be constrained - Tesla need Twh of cells, multiples of anything available today. These will need materials, mines.

Tesla are the ones driving increasing cell capacity, but the need is huge.

 

[pgkevet]

There are two main things keeping tesla ahead - the supercharger network and battery manufacture. 3yrs time they wll be ahead, 5 years not so sure , 10 years - not a chance. And at any time there could be a techno breakthrough that throws a curve - be it mobileye or some clever way of green hydrogen being practical or overhead power or free public transport and high taxes. The major players may well be biding their time with undisclosed dev work rather than doing a Musk and shouting about it or even china putting a stop to rare earth exports.

 

[rotor2k]

There are two main things keeping tesla ahead - the supercharger network and battery manufacture. 3yrs time they wll be ahead, 5 years not so sure , 10 years - not a chance. And at any time there could be a techno breakthrough that throws a curve - be it mobileye or some clever way of green hydrogen being practical or overhead power or free public transport and high taxes. The major players may well be biding their time with undisclosed dev work rather than doing a Musk and shouting about it or even china putting a stop to rare earth exports.

I’m curious why you think “not a chance” in 10 years. Tesla are firing on all cylinders (pun intended) and are not standing still by any stretch.

 

[Artiste]

The legacy brands will continue to fall behind. In 2022, they still haven't learned key fundamentals that Tesla went thru in 2006. The gap will just get wider and wider. The smaller more nimble makes will creep up but I don't think the goliaths will change. They still talk about how great they are instead of actually proving it.

I’m not convinced by this. The “legacy goliaths” have no choice but to change because otherwise they will simply cease to exist. They are spending huge amounts of money on R&D on electric vehicles - and other technologies too.

When I first joined this forum I was ridiculed for suggesting that Tesla would have any meaningful competition in the next TEN years. Just a couple of years on and there are many viable alternatives, and there are lots of new models in the pipeline. In three years time the SuC network might well be opened up to other makes and Tesla will have lost one of its biggest advantages.

You also have to remember that lots of people very rarely use public chargers and are not particularly interested in the latest battery tech or the very best in efficiency. If you just wanted a car that had reliably working windscreen wipers and auto headlights then a Tesla wouldn’t even be on your list.

As for thinking how great they are - Elon Musk won that prize many years ago. He is the undisputed master of over promising and under delivering.

 

[sc20]

As a package Tesla is very difficult to beat and I don't think that's going change that quickly - especially as the ICE manufacturers still have a few years left to sell their wares before the curtain falls.

This. I feel Tesla is going to become like Apple. Sure, you can buy a cheaper or more complex Android EV and deal with that if you want to. But the Tesla package will be much easier to use and better for 99% of people who can afford it.

 

[Jonnymack74]

In three years time we will still be moaning that FSD doesn't do as promised, phantom braking will still be happening and auto wipers will finally be working, but only in 2025 models that actually have a sensor

 

[yessuz]

In three years time we will still be moaning that FSD doesn't do as promised, phantom braking will still be happening and auto wipers will finally be working, but only in 2025 models that actually have a sensor

So. Tesla has no wiler sensor? How does the auto wipers work then?

 

[Js1977]

So. Tesla has no wiler sensor? How does the auto wipers work then?

Its camera based which will probably explain why thy work better in the dark with street lighting or daytime conditions.

New model S apparently has a dedicated rain sensor now.

 

[pgkevet]

I’m curious why you think “not a chance” in 10 years. Tesla are firing on all cylinders (pun intended) and are not standing still by any stretch.

If national moves to electric cars continue then charging infrastructure will have to have happened, losing Tesla that edge. Tesla are an expensive fashion brand with comparisons to the Apple saga but that doesn't mean that the majority of people car afford them. Huge car companies such as Toyota will have had to switch to pure EV and will make cars to fit all those niches whereas Tesla will continue to aim at the higher paid of society despite past claims of a model 2 etc.
-The continuing stories of failed Tesla promises will alienate non fashion-conscious customers. Let's face reality - the majority of folk on here are far wealthier than average and owning 50K cars is daydream time for average punter.
There are a few ways this can go - wealthier folk moving to a new range of high end cars when charging infrastructure is sorted 'cos they want working cars without quirks and average Joe settling for 150mile range Escorts, Clios, Astras, Aygos etc. Tesla may still command a financial position amongst them but no longer have the volume position. Or true autonomy finally works and folk just order a car when they need one and don't own at all.

 

[DJP31]

New model S apparently has a dedicated rain sensor now.

Wow, if true that's a major turnaround from the previous position of camera only. Do you have a source for the info?

 

[bingbongbing]

I’m surprised people see Tesla as an ‘apple’ or luxury type item. It’s totally not at all. My work car park is full of teslas, you should have seen the excitement when someone had a Kia EV6 to test(along with orders placed).

They need to keep the supercharger network ‘closed’ and keep expanding it. That’s the only way they’ll grow.

The polestar 2/ev6/new i4/ionic 5, just a few that work better as car, all without the charger network.

Let’s hope, panel gaps get tighter, the charger network grows and stays closed, thinks like wipers and lights start working, looks get better in model refreshes and competition slows down.