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Which cars delivered when?

Discussion in 'Model S' started by mcornwell, Jun 21, 2012.

  1. mcornwell

    mcornwell Active Member

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    #1 mcornwell, Jun 21, 2012
    Last edited: Jun 21, 2012
    While formulating in my head which month I might get my Model S, I thought I'd put it down on a spreadsheet to see if I can nail it down a little more accurately. Based on the thread Delaying Delivery of Model S / Waiting until other options become available, it sounds like about 25% of the folks here might delay delivery for some reason (specifically because of option availability or financial reasons). Adding to that that maybe 5% or so of reservationists might have fallen off the list over the past 18-36 months (financial, lost interest, deaths). Also, I'm guessing Canadian and European homogenization won't be done until 1Q 2013.

    I had formulated in my head and was pretty sure my P2747 would be delivered in November, but I was secretly hoping that somehow it might make it in October. Now that I've put it down on a spreadsheet, I'm guessing maybe I'll be late November :mad:

    Comments and criticisms appreciated!

    View attachment 6900

    (Mods, I modified the image, but the forum seems to still post the original one, and I can't seem to delete the first one)
     

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  2. ibcs

    ibcs Member

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    I hope your right looking at your chart moves me to July instead of September as quoted. You might be a little optimistic on projections. Hopefully as we get more data you can keep updating your chart for everyone.
     
  3. richkae

    richkae VIN587

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    I don't think they will deliver 300 cars in July. I hope they deliver at least 141 though.
    Where does the R439 number come from? I am pretty sure that a lot of those upgraded to sig - I know I did.
     
  4. NigelM

    NigelM Recovering Member

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    I'd like to dream that you're right about July but in reality I think it's going to start a little slower. That said, the target is to deliver 5,000 cars by year end so the ramp-up has to start sometime.

    BTW, you have SS on your list. If those are the Sig Specials, they come before the Sigs. Also *richkae* is right, there could easily be a couple of hundred not compressed that we don't know about. I was also an R number and upgraded to Sig Special.
     
  5. mcornwell

    mcornwell Active Member

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    I got the #'s from the Model S Tally thread.

    I might have been too optimistic about the 1st month or so of deliveries. Having seen the factory in October, and seeing the recent videos that Tesla has posted, I think the factory is up to the #'s, but who knows about suppliers and we all know Tesla has some serious quality standards, so perhaps they will ramp up slower than I've estimated. I know Elon is famous for under promising and over delivering, so I'm holding out hope that things will ramp up quickly.
     
  6. brianman

    brianman Burrito Founder

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    SSL is before S. Your table has it flipped. FYI
     
  7. mcornwell

    mcornwell Active Member

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    Oops, I think I knew that.

    Corrected and revised estimates:

    Which Cars When.jpg
     
  8. Adm

    Adm Active Member

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    No Canadians here?
     
  9. mcornwell

    mcornwell Active Member

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    As I mentioned in my post, "Also, I'm guessing Canadian and European homogenization won't be done until 1Q 2013."

    Have we heard otherwise that there will be Canadian Sigs delivered in 2012?
     
  10. linaser

    linaser Member

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    At the annual shareholder meeting Elon told the investors, that "...in about 6 months, we'll bring Model S cars in Europe...".

    So it would also be reasonable to assume, that some cars (Signatures?) will be delivered to Europe in late 2012.

    Because he didn't mention Canada, I would guess, that delivery will start there even sooner.

    edit: source: 2012 Shareholder Meeting | Tesla Motors at about 22:20
     
  11. adhawan

    adhawan Member

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    We were told to expect our Canadian Signature by October. He said Canadian Signatures would be delivered at the tail end of the US Signatures.
     
  12. richkae

    richkae VIN587

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    There are only 1000 US signature cars.
    The reservation numbers go higher than 1000 because there are holes in the number sequence for people who canceled or gave up their signature for a regular production model.
    The "Special" Signatures for people who already have Roadsters are included in the 1000 total cars.

    I was originally P56 which was one of the "R" numbers, but when I upgraded to the signature model, I abandoned that number. I bet that more than 50 of the "R" numbers are abandoned because those people upgraded to Signatures.
     
  13. VolkerP

    VolkerP EU Model S P-37

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    From experience I have to tell you that any homogenization even within EU takes years. Anyway, here is my first try to homogenize Canada with EU :biggrin:
    CanEU.png
     
  14. agileone

    agileone CDN P#40

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    They have been talking of 3 months after the start, so I am expecting the 200 Sig to be done in september, before US General Production, no ?
     
  15. DrDave

    DrDave Member

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    I agree, the initial ramp will be slower - big difference in running one/day as the VP suggested in the recent article and even 10/day. Lots of system bugs will be exposed early, would expect a steeper ramp in a couple months time
     
  16. Mike_Schlechter

    Mike_Schlechter Model S - P457

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    I really hope these projections are correct, as I'm P457 and have a wager on getting the car before Halloween.
     
  17. AndyM

    AndyM Member

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    Love the artwork, Volker!
    I'm not sure Canada is even homogenized... Quebec, for example.
     
  18. mcornwell

    mcornwell Active Member

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    Argh, spellcheck FAIL.
     
  19. AndyM

    AndyM Member

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    Je m'excuse... "Québec" :)
     
  20. NigelM

    NigelM Recovering Member

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    At least one car to be delivered on July 1st? Twitter

    Untitled.jpg
     

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