Which comes first; Shexit or Brexit?

[Buckminster]

Shexit - shorts exit causing squeeze.

 

[Johann Koeber]

I don't get it.
Sorry.

 

[BluestarE3]

Reading the thread title and poll, I thought Shexit had something to do with Theresa May quitting or getting ousted due to snags in coming up with a Brexit deal... and was wondering what this has to do with Tesla.

 

[Buckminster]

Just in case there is any confusion, there has been a lot of speculation about an imminent short squeeze (TSLA) - I have dubbed it Shexit (it rhymes with Brexit and a short squeeze could be caused by shorts exiting or be an outcome). I thought that it might be fun to guess whether it will happen before or after March 2019. Shexit and Brexit have little linkage but will impact TSLA SP.

 

[ZsoZso]

I voted "before March 29", but I'd like to clarify:
First, I believe the trigger for the squeeze will be a 2-stage punch, Q4 earnings report + Model Y reveal with massive reservation list (more than Model 3 was). Q4-ER will definitely happen before your deadline, while the reveal is rumored to be about mid-March, but that is in Elon-time, so it could easily slip later.
Second, even if both triggers happen before the end of March, the Shexit may only start but not complete that fast, so I expect it to be in-process at the end of March.

 

[Buckminster]

I'm a Super Bull - at the time of writing, I'm the only one that voted:
Shexit comes after 29th March 2019
I'm hoping to be wrong, but I think it will take S&P500 inclusion.

 

[suwaneedad]

Not sure we'll see a stampede of shorts exiting. I read someplace credible yesterday that short positions in TSLA have already declined from ~30% of float to ~21% of float. If accurate, that's only resulted in the stock being ~at the convert price on the March 2019 debt ($360).

Not to mention, as shorts cover and the price rises, presumably new shorts show up at least to some degree, as the new higher stock price strikes the new shorts as untenable.

That said, I expect the price of TSLA to be materially higher than $360 by 3/29, for a blend of positive reasons: Q4 earnings and cash flow/liquidity reporting, Q4 production and sales volume and Q1 order backlog discussion, Model Y reveal and deposit-taking, removal of March 2019 convertible debt potential cash call / liquidity adverse impact risk.

I am hopeful to find some down days in TSLA stock before then, so I can add to my position at least for the short run. Still aiming to pay for my Model 3 entirely with TSLA gains (1/3 of the way there so far).

 

[Buckminster]

Congrats to:

• Owner
• GleanerC
• AZRI11
• AlexS

For correctly forecasting that Brexit would be delayed:
Which comes first; Shexit or Brexit?

1. *
   Shexit comes after 29th March 2019
   5 vote(s)
   23.8%
2. 
   Shexit comes before 29th March 2019
   9 vote(s)
   42.9%
3. 
   Shexit never happens
   3 vote(s)
   14.3%
4. 
   Brexit gets delayed/postponed
   4 vote(s)
   19.0%