Which model version holds its value best?

[Michachael]

Hi all,

I love driving in a Tesla, but I hate buying depreciating assets.

That's why I wont buy the model 3 performance, although I absolutely love it. I'm now researching second hand model S, but I'm wondering which version/year will probably have the least further depreciation in the coming years, as I don't want to lose too much money when reselling it again. On the other hand, I am reading big differences between AP1, AP2 and AP3, which worries me a bit on the 'future - proof' of the second hand model s. Very slow supercharging on older model s ? Warranty?

Which model / year would you recommend, providing that I would drive a 800km trip every 2 months?

Thank you

 

[MorrisonHiker]

• A late 2016 S90D or 2016 S P100D with AP2 (included on cars built from October 2016 to August 2017) should still have free transferable Supercharging in most cases. If you're going to do a lot of driving and free Supercharging is important to you, then you might look for a late 2016 or early 2017 car that was ordered before January 15, 2017. However, they aren't currently upgrading AP2 cars to AP3 and these cars have the slower MCU1 which doesn't have all the latest bells and whistles. I had a December 2016 S90D but upgraded to a March 2017 S100D for more range. It is my current daily driver and I've been happy with the AP features so far. Hopefully they will be upgraded to AP3 eventually. The S90Ds will be cheaper than the S100Ds and Performance S100Ds. It will be hard finding a 2017 S100D with transferable Supercharging, but they do exist.
• AP2.5 cars built from August 2017 to March 2018 have newer AP hardware but still have MCU1 and aren't currently being upgraded to AP3 so these cars don't currently have much of a benefit over AP2 cars other than the addition of dashcam and sentry modes. If you add your own dashcam to an AP2 car, it would have similar functionality, at least until they start upgrading AP2.5/MCU1 cars to AP3. Supercharging isn't transferable for these cars.
• AP2.5 cars built from March 2018 to March 2019 should have MCU2 and have all the latest features and are currently being upgraded to AP3 if FSD is purchased. Supercharging isn't transferable for these cars.
• AP3 cars have been built since ~March 2019. Later in 2019, they came out with the Raven suspension and increased range. These are still fairly new so probably not as good of a deal as AP2.5 cars with MCU2. Supercharging isn't transferable for these cars.

 

[Greengolfer]

Unfortunately a car that doesn't lose value over time does not exist(Collector cars excluded). Teslas do retain resale value as well or slightly better than other premium cars. An example: A 2014 BMW 7 series that retailed for $106,000 in 2014 has a blue book value of $23k - $27k.
My 2014 P85 that retailed for $107,000 has a blue book value of $28k - $33k. All of these numbers depend on condition of the cars.

 

[Michachael]

• A late 2016 S90D or 2016 S P100D with AP2 (included on cars built from October 2016 to August 2017) should still have free transferable Supercharging in most cases. If you're going to do a lot of driving and free Supercharging is important to you, then you might look for a late 2016 or early 2017 car that was ordered before January 15, 2017. However, they aren't currently upgrading AP2 cars to AP3 and these cars have the slower MCU1 which doesn't have all the latest bells and whistles. I had a December 2016 S90D but upgraded to a March 2017 S100D for more range. It is my current daily driver and I've been happy with the AP features so far. Hopefully they will be upgraded to AP3 eventually. The S90Ds will be cheaper than the S100Ds and Performance S100Ds. It will be hard finding a 2017 S100D with transferable Supercharging, but they do exist.
• AP2.5 cars built from August 2017 to March 2018 have newer AP hardware but still have MCU1 and aren't currently being upgraded to AP3 so these cars don't currently have much of a benefit over AP2 cars other than the addition of dashcam and sentry modes. If you add your own dashcam to an AP2 car, it would have similar functionality, at least until they start upgrading AP2.5/MCU1 cars to AP3. Supercharging isn't transferable for these cars.
• AP2.5 cars built from March 2018 to March 2019 should have MCU2 and have all the latest features and are currently being upgraded to AP3 if FSD is purchased. Supercharging isn't transferable for these cars.
• AP3 cars have been built since ~March 2019. Later in 2019, they came out with the Raven suspension and increased range. These are still fairly new so probably not as good of a deal as AP2.5 cars with MCU2. Supercharging isn't transferable for these cars.

Thanks for your reply!

I've found a 2015 P 85D on the second hand page of Tesla at 45K USD. Of course with AP1. I guess I will be able to resell it for 30K in 4 years, no?

 

[2101Guy]

if your #1 goal is least depreciation? Then from a purely math point of view, you'd want one of the oldest Model S's available, as they would have already depreciated, the most.

 

[2101Guy]

Thanks for your reply!

I've found a 2015 P 85D on the second hand page of Tesla at 45K USD. Of course with AP1. I guess I will be able to resell it for 30K in 4 years, no?

No definitive answer to your question. A fully loaded Model S was up to $140k in price (from Tesla) a couple years ago. With the price drops last year, you can now get a fully loaded model S for tens of thousands of dollars less, which then impacts the used Model S market overall. No guarantees Elon wont further lower Model S pricing in the future

 

[Michachael]

Unfortunately a car that doesn't lose value over time does not exist(Collector cars excluded). Teslas do retain resale value as well or slightly better than other premium cars. An example: A 2014 BMW 7 series that retailed for $106,000 in 2014 has a blue book value of $23k - $27k.
My 2014 P85 that retailed for $107,000 has a blue book value of $28k - $33k. All of these numbers depend on condition of the cars.

I'm aware that cars lose value over time, hence my request to guide me towards a model s with the highest probability of a limited depreciation over 3-4 years time. On the BMW, this might be true, but showing another car that depreciates more than Tesla doesn't justify buying a depreciating Tesla

I've just found an interesting chart on Tesla Model S Depreciation According to their study, it looks like 2018 / 2016 / 2015 are good value for money.

 

[GoBeavs]

The Model X holds its value significantly better than the Model S. Once the Model 3 became mass produced, the S started depreciating significantly faster.

my guess is once the Model Y is up and running, the Model X could have the same fate. But to-date, the X has held its value very well.

 

[D.E.]

Thanks for your reply!

I've found a 2015 P 85D on the second hand page of Tesla at 45K USD. Of course with AP1. I guess I will be able to resell it for 30K in 4 years, no?

If Tesla owns the car at any time they will strip the free supercharging from the car. If you get one that hasn’t passed through Tesla’s hands, the free supercharging should remain.

 

[gaswalla]

Least depreciating Tesla - P85D used. Currently going for around 50k. With the performance they provide, no way they go less than 40k ever. (Unless the 85 battery-gate ends up being resolved in Tesla’s favor)

 

[D.E.]

A Tesla is going to be expensive to own. Any Tesla. Really, it’s any luxury car. Older is cheaper but cheaper isn’t cheap.

If you bend it, it takes a long time to fix. It’s aluminum. Aluminum bends if you sneeze on it. Well, not really but it isn’t anything like steel. When we close the front trunk, it isn’t like a regular car where you just slam it. You have to put your hands on both sides of the hood (bonnet) and shut it just so. Or it’ll bend. I haven’t bent one, I’be been ever so careful. I hate to open it.

If you have a little wreck... to fix these cars, Tesla removes every bent part, thows them away and puts new parts on. Tesla hasn’t been hellishly quick to ship parts. It’s months. Sometimes quarters. That’s in the U.S. You are in Switzerland. I’ll bet that takes even longer.

There are other little nuggets of ownership life, so read the blog posts. Take them with a grain of salt, we’re all fanatics. Well, not all of us. Some were fanatics at one time but the gloss is off the apple, if you get my drift. Some of then don’t even like Tesla any more. Not me, though, I’m old so I don’t have time to not like my car or its maker. This may be my last car. I don’t drive it much. But I grin when I do.

Anyway, used is the way to go to reduce cost of ownership. Call you insurance company, some won’t insure Teslas and some others charge a lot. Read lots about the 85KW battery. You don’t want to buy it then read about it.

No one is going to tell you what it will be worth in 4 years. Some will tell you what they think it will be worth. They’re likely not the same.

Life will be simpler with a small economy car. The Tesla is sort of a hobby.

 

[rsg123]

If you are looking at it from a strictly financial perspective, I would buy the cheapest used Model 3 available. These all have FSD capability.

 

[sorka]

Least depreciating Tesla - P85D used. Currently going for around 50k. With the performance they provide, no way they go less than 40k ever. (Unless the 85 battery-gate ends up being resolved in Tesla’s favor)

Especially true for Ludicrous upgraded versions. There are only 2 or 3 for sale in the entire US at any one time.

Only two in the entire US currently on auto trader and non ebay.

This one has 80K miles and asking is $57K
Autotrader - page unavailable

 

[Uncle Paul]

Base models seem to offer the lowest purchase price, plus the lowest depreciation. The ego driven options seem to loose value quickly.

In many cases the savings on gasoline will offset the depreciation.

If FSD ever becomes a reality, then the cars might actually increase in value, as they could then be put into rental fleet service as a money maker.

Saw it happen with older Prius. As they became prefered for Taxi Cab use, that put a floor under even the highest mileage and oldest Prius. In SoCal they became the go to cab as airports only allowed non polluting hybrids to idle while waiting for fares.

 

[sorka]

Base models seem to offer the lowest purchase price, plus the lowest depreciation. The ego driven options seem to loose value quickly.

That's Ludicrous Every used car I've ever bought had to the the one with all the bells and whistles and I was willing to pay extra to get them.

 

[cookie99]

Thanks for your reply!

I've found a 2015 P 85D on the second hand page of Tesla at 45K USD. Of course with AP1. I guess I will be able to resell it for 30K in 4 years, no?

you will probably not be able to sell it for $30k in 4 years. In 4 years you can probably sell an MCU2 AP2 car for $30-35k

 

[glide]

Thanks for your reply!

I've found a 2015 P 85D on the second hand page of Tesla at 45K USD. Of course with AP1. I guess I will be able to resell it for 30K in 4 years, no?

Nope.

 

[Cheburashka]

I think AP2 cars with free Supercharging and pano roof will have the least depreciation. Whatever the cheapest one is - 75 or 75D.

- Will get HW3
- May get MCU2
- Facelift
- Pano roof that is no longer offered
- Free Supercharging with EAP is rare
- Uncorkable or uncorked

Now I know free charging isn't worth that much to many but it is to the right buyer. And used car buyers are often frugal so free charging can be a big deal, especially now that it's so rare on used cars.

 

[ucmndd]

There’s no secret sauce here. Pretty much all cars depreciate on a very predictable curve and Teslas are no different. The sweet spot for used purchases is generally ~3 years old after the first ~40-50% hit happens and it slows down a bit from there.

 

[BigNick]

Hi all,

I love driving in a Tesla, but I hate buying depreciating assets.

Consider leasing maybe?
For me leasing is a no-go at 25K miles per year.