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Which will be first--Model Y or new Roadster?

Discussion in 'Future Cars' started by tenstringer009, Mar 26, 2017.

  1. tenstringer009

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    My instincts would say Model Y, but Elon gave the same timetable for both during his most recent Twitterstorm--a 'few years' away. Can't get much more specific than that ;)

    My bet is Model Y goes into production in mid-2019; new Roadster by end of 2020 (at the earliest). Would love to be proven wrong though...

    FullSizeRender (2).jpg FullSizeRender (1).jpg
     
  2. 11thIndian

    11thIndian Member

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    I think it would be impossible to guess at this point, but as a Model Y fence-sitter, a new Roadster doesn't worry me. Design work on M3 has already ended, and are those people are likely already working on Model Y, the pickup, the urban transport, the semi, and the Roadster to varying degrees. In fact, final Model Y designs are probably waiting until Tesla sees how Model 3 production line works out, and whether tweaks need to be made. No point in replicating any sticky parts of the production process with the Model Y when they can learn from their mistakes.

    Production is the bottleneck, and with the Roadster likely to be such a low volume car relatively speaking, I don't think it would have a meaningful impact on the full Fremont 1 million cars per year capacity. The M3 and the MY are the ones that will be fighting over capacity until addition production can come online.

    I think this week has been a healthy reality check for a lot of Tesla fans. I think everything they're doing is going to help them meet the optimistic side of their production targets. Sadly that just means that not everyone can get the car they want as soon as they wanted it.

    If "a few years" indeed means production starting sometime in 2019, then that's what I'd been bracing for. And if that means we don't see it until 2018 then that's fine too. But how Tesla will stagger their announcements and rollouts the farther they get from a 2-3 vehicle fleet, I think we can only guess.
     
  3. HankLloydRight

    HankLloydRight Fluxing

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    I don't know.. I don't think a new Roadster propels the 'secret master plan' of providing sustainable, affordable transport for the masses.

    Maybe as a niche side project Elon takes on once he steps down after the Model 3 is released (like he said he would do).
     
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  4. wdolson

    wdolson Supporting Member

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    I think when Elon introduced the master plan II he said the Roaster wasn't on it because it was not necessary to Tesla's evolution, but the SUV version of the Model 3 is. He wants to do the Roadster, but it's a very limited market car that will likely be high profit margin, but with low volume it wouldn't make anywhere near as much as the Model Y will.

    If Tesla makes $5K per Model Y and sells 500,000 a year, that's $250 billion gross profit. If they make $50K per Roadster and sell 5000 a year, that's only $250 million gross profit. If they managed to sell 10,000 a year the new Roadster would be likely outselling the Miata.

    Getting to volume sales on the Model 3 and Y is a critical path for Tesla. Once those profits are rolling in, they will have the cash flow to do a lot of expansion at once. Doing the Roadster next would be a dalliance that doesn't advance the plan. Once gross profits are in the hundreds of billions, they can do a next gen Roadster out of petty cash and probably not impact anything else.
     
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  5. HankLloydRight

    HankLloydRight Fluxing

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    I agree with your post, but this is $2.5 billion. :)

    You must have gotten too excited tapping out all those zeros.
     
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  6. deonb

    deonb Supporting Member

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    You mean Tesla is NOT going to make more profit on the Model 3 per year, than all of the profit for all of the other automakers in the world combined?

    Ok, that's it. I'm shorting the stock.
     
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  7. SureValla

    SureValla Member

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    A more responsible company would not even bother with a roadster 2.0, I think model Y is a safe bet.
     
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  8. wdolson

    wdolson Supporting Member

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    Whoops, that's what I get for posting when tired. :(
     

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